In the aftermath of Ukraine Airlines Flight 752 exploding and crashing just north of Tehran airport, the Iranian government is refusing to turn-over the black box flight data recorders recovered from the crash site.   Combined with the timing and location, their refusal is leading to increased speculation the flight may have accidentally been targeted by Iranian air-defense systems.  The tragedy is being compounded by Iranian politics.
The Boeing 737-800 is a very dependable aircraft with three decades of service.  This specific Ukraine aircraft was built in 2016 & just had a service inspection on January 6th. Immediately after the crash, Iranian officials stated the cause was “technical difficulties”, and after video surfaced showing the plane was on fire heading to the ground, Iran later stated the cause was one of the engines on fire.  However, there was no distress call or report of issue, from very experienced Ukraine pilots to Tehran air-traffic control.

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There were 176 passengers and crew aboard: 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainian passengers and crew, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three Britons on board. Additionally, what appears to be the nose of an M1 Surface to Air Missile (SAM) has been identified in a debris field near the crash site.
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Speaker of the House “Tehran Nancy” has announced her intention for a vote on Thursday in an effort to limit President Trump’s authority to defend against attacks by Iran, and increase the democrat effort to protect Iran’s ability to target Americans in the region.

“Mullah Bin Schumer and Tehran Nancy”

“Members of Congress have serious, urgent concerns about the Administration’s decision to engage in hostilities against Iran and about its lack of strategy moving forward. Our concerns were not addressed by the President’s insufficient War Powers Act notification and by the Administration’s briefing today,” Pelosi said in a statement.
 

A new ADP Payroll Report shows job gains of 202,000 from November to December 2019 far surpassing expectations. The increase was the largest gain since April ’19: “largest gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services. Job creation was strong across companies of all sizes, led predominantly by mid-sized companies.”

(Reuters) – U.S. private payrolls increased by the most in eight months in December, pointing to sustained labor market strength though job gains last month were likely flattered by a seasonal quirk.
The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed private payrolls jumped by 202,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since April, after an upwardly revised 124,000 rise in November.

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Earlier today President Trump addressed the outcome and ramifications from last nights’ missile attack by Iran against two bases in Iraq. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: As long as I am President of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

Good morning. I’m pleased to inform you: The American people should be extremely grateful and happy no Americans were harmed in last night’s attack by the Iranian regime. We suffered no casualties, all of our soldiers are safe, and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases.

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UPDATE: Response from President Trump

There is a big difference between “rockets” being fired, and ground based “missiles” being launched from inside Iran.  Stay aware initial reports are often wrong or misleading.
Breaking Reports are confirming that several “short range” and/or “cruise” missiles are being fired into “multiple” U.S. bases in Iraq.  U.S. officials are confirming missiles from Iran have targeted Al Asad Air Base in western Iraq (Western Anbar Desert), and U.S. forces in Erbil – northern Iraq.

CNN is reporting President Trump was briefed on the “rocket” attacks, according to White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham. “We are aware of the reports of attacks on US facilities in Iraq. The President has been briefed and is monitoring the situation closely and consulting with his national security team,” Grisham said.

(VIA ABC) – Multiple missiles have been launched into Iraq from Iran targeting American bases.
“This morning, courageous fighters of the IRGC’s Air Force launched a successful operation called Operation Martyr Soleimani, with the code ‘Oh Zahra’ by firing tens of ground-to-ground missiles at the base of the terrorist and invasive US forces,” the country’s state-run news outlet ISNA reported.

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Earlier today President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania welcomed the Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his wife Mrs. Mareva Grabowski-Mitsotakis to the White House.  Prior to their bilateral meeting the two leaders held a press availability in the oval office. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much. On behalf of the First Lady and myself, it’s an honor to have the Prime Minister of Greece and First Lady of Greece with us. We really appreciate it. We have many things to discuss.

The relationship is extr- — really extraordinary, I would say. Right? It’s as good as it can get. We’re doing a lot of things together — military. We’re also doing big trade. A lot of trade. And Greece has made a tremendous comeback. We’ve worked with them very closely. And, really, the Prime Minister will have some interesting things to say. So you have to tell them one statistic, because it’s a great statistic. We’re very proud of Greece and the comeback that they’re making. And we will continue it forward. There’s no doubt about it. Thank you very much for being here.

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Earlier today U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper held a press briefing. Video below. When the transcript is available it will be posted HERE.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released Q4 (November) import/export data showing a considerable drop in the U.S. trade deficit. [Release Here]  Exports increased approximately .7 percent ($208.6 billion) while imports dropped one percent ($251.7 billion.  Lowering the overall trade deficit to $43.1 billion.

While the pundits are surprised at the strong result, it should not come as a surprise to many CTH readers.  During Q2 (June) and Q3 (July, Aug, Sept) the rate of GDP growth was impacted -in part- by inflated U.S. purchases as companies bought holiday merchandise earlier than normal.  This was an effort to avoid looming tariffs, and as a result companies increased their overall inventory.  We predicted Q4 purchases (Oct, Nov, Dec) would be lower specifically because of this backlog of retail inventory.
With the massively successful holiday season now over, those inventories have sold.  Specifically because the value of imports are deducted from the GDP calculations, there will likely be a much stronger Q4 GDP growth resulting from less import activity.
The Wall Street financial pundits are too focused on the multinational side of the ledger; and they simultaneously don’t review data from a Main Street perspective; therefore they don’t see -or pretend not to see- the common sense equation staring them in the face.
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Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley held a mark-up hearing today to review the USMCA and vote the agreement out of committee.  After debate the agreement passed with a 25-3 vote.  Pat Toomey (R-PA), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) voted against the agreement (full hearing video below)

The USMCA is now sent to the full Senate for a vote this month; however, it is interesting to hear the reasons why Toomey, Cassidy and Whitehouse oppose it.
Senator Whitehouse (D) opposes USMCA because it doesn’t address climate change and have the provisions within it to support the Paris Climate Treaty.  Senators Toomey (R) and Cassidy oppose USMCA because it is not friendly to the Wall Street multinationals.
Senator Toomey doesn’t like that the Senate cannot change the USMCA to make it more favorable to the Wall Street multinationals who are invested heavily in China.  Toomey, speaking on behalf of several, noted the Trans-Pacific-Partnership (TPP) is a better trade construct.  Quite a remarkable mask-dropping was visible during the hearing.
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Earlier today Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a press briefing to discuss the ongoing issues with Iran and Iraq.

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