Earlier this evening on Fox News, Tucker Carlson outlined a disconnect between dire national health models that predicted mass deaths and a reality not close to predictions.

[Review IHME Coronavirus Model HERE]

As Carlson notes there are few professionals explaining why there is such a significant difference. Additionally, if we have shut down our economy based on models that were incorrect, well, when are we going to re-open our economy? Lots of questions… and unfortunately no-one seems to be allowed to ask them.

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In the final analysis this crisis is going to come down to a very tribal set of decisions about when to re-engage the operations of U.S. society. Additionally, what changes and rules will be instituted as a result of some areas wanting to re-open, while others demand the continuance of an extended shut-down.

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National Defense Production Act policy coordinator Peter Navarro appeared on ‘Fox & Friends’ this morning to discuss various issues of supply chain needs for the U.S. to combat coronavirus.

Mr. Navarro touches on how the DPA is being used to secure medical supplies and equipment including hydroxychloroquine as a treatment.

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Hopefully the advanced information CTH provided on the food supply-chain has helped to understand the issues, challenges and demands many are seeing.  Inside the food manufacturing industry the impacts of COVID-19 are stunning; crazy increases in business; and there are going to be interim shortages on popular products.

To understand the ongoing issues with empty shelves, and also prepare for future shortages on specific products (hint: buy extra pet food now), here’s some interesting background:

Champaign, Illinois – […] “We can’t make enough mac and cheese right now,” said Dilton “Dee” Gibbs, plant manager at the facility that makes half of the Kraft Macaroni & Cheese sold in the U.S., as well as A-1 steak sauce, mayonnaise and salad dressings.

The packaged food giant, along with many of its peers, has had to ramp up production amid an abrupt reversal in consumer trends. Shoppers who in recent years shunned processed foods in favor of fresher, healthier and more premium products are now loading up on shelf-stable standbys as shelter-in-place orders force vast swaths of the nation’s population to prepare for a long stretch of cooking at home.

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Take one heap of hypocrisy and one heap of irony and combine them; what you end up with is a New York Governor going bananas about the potential for the New York metropolitan areas being quarantined.

On March 10th New York Governor Andrew Cuomo called-in the national guard to quarantine a New York City suburb called New Rochelle. The alarming effort was called a “containment plan” by the governor to stop the spread of coronavirus.

However, Cuomo is now having fits as the potential for a “containment plan” over the New York City metropolitan area is being considered as a federal mitigation effort.

NEW YORK – New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has said that President Donald Trump’s proposed quarantine of New York to limit the spread of coronavirus would be tantamount to a ‘federal declaration of war.’

‘If you start walling off areas all across the country it would just be totally bizarre, counter-productive, anti-American, anti-social,’ said Cuomo in an interview with CNN on Saturday. (link)

Governor Cuomo uses national guard to create containment zone of New Rochelle, and all is good.  President Trump contemplates using national guard to create containment zone for New York city, and it’s a declaration of war… Gotcha.

Realistically, what President Trump is likely considering is a shut down of the airports in the New York metro area.  But it’s quite typical to see the apoplexy about it.

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Thank you Greg Abbott.  This is the first smart move by a state leader recognizing the realities of the system at hand.  Texas Governor Greg Abbott has signed a waiver allowing restaurants to sell their bulk food directly to retail customers.

Amid all of the reactionary decisions by elected officials, this is a smart, and temporary move that can take pressure off the retail supply chain.  Hopefully others will follow.

Leadership is often about recognizing the unique landscape and taking ‘outside the box’ action in response to current conditions.  Greg Abbott recognizes there are two distinctly different supply-chains, and this modification can open one distribution valve.

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Earlier today New York Governor Andrew Cuomo blasted FEMA during a press conference for sending 400 medical ventilators when his state needs 30,000.  WATCH:

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However, in 2015 the New York State Department of Health specifically studied the issue, warned about a critical lack of ventilators during a pandemic, and the New York Governor made a specific decision NOT to order them: [pdf link here]

So Andrew Cuomo is blasting FEMA today for not providing something he choose not to order and prepare for in 2015.  That’s a little bit unfair and hypocritical, no?

White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro discusses some of the more granular details behind the COVID-19 mitigation strategy.   The policies are designed to counter the economic impacts, and then use a tactical approach toward the challenges in the supply chain for medical supply needs.

Navarro discusses some of the private sector shifts in production and manufacturing to generate medical supply needs as an outcome of the defense production act.

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As expected more retail food outlets are reducing store hours.

Several factors have increased retail market demand for fresh food and non-perishables. People stocking up, kids out of school, some panic shopping (example toilet paper) and now curfews & quarantines have people purchasing more for ‘meals prepared at home’.

Add in a level of closed restaurants and the demand on retail food markets is severely stressed.  With that in mind what are you experiencing in your city, town or neighborhood market? Use the comment section to share your experience. How is the supply chain responding to the increased demand in your area? Has the panic buying settled down?

As an outcome of short-sighted coronavirus issues, the Philadelphia police department has announced they will no longer be arresting suspects for retail theft, auto theft, burglary, narcotics or other “non violent” offenses.  Instead they will write tickets, release the suspects and address the criminality later on.  Now watch what happens.

CTH saw the instructions earlier today (see below) but we did not want to immediately distribute the information.  It should be remembered the current Philadelphia police commissioner, Danielle Outlaw (pictured left), is a social justice  activist from Portland, Oregon.

Unfortunately, there is a predictive element to this.  Perhaps some are familiar with the post Hurricane Andrew experience in Homestead and Miami-Dade.

The only thing standing between law-abiding citizens and those who would take their possessions is an ability to defend your own property.  This is now the Philadelphia reality.

PHILADELPHIA – In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, Philadelphia police officers have been instructed to stop making arrests for certain non-violent crimes.

The department said individuals who would normally be arrested and processed at a detective division, will be temporarily detained to confirm identification and complete necessary paperwork. The individual will then be a arrested at a later date on an arrest warrant. (read more)

Beware, the law of unintended consequences.

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CTH is spending time on this issue because the food distribution sector is the most important sector in all commerce. Having some familiarity with the supply chain might help people to understand the challenges; and possibly help you locate product.

The Inversion – Big chain markets; those who spent millions developing their own proprietary ‘just-in-time’ distribution networks and automated ordering systems; are currently the least equipped to deal with the level of demand.  Meanwhile smaller chains, or mom-and-pops, who rely on third-party brokered distribution are faster to respond.

Several factors have increased retail market demand for food products and non-perishables.  People stocking up, kids out of school, some panic shopping (example toilet paper) and now curfews/quarantines have people purchasing more for ‘meals prepared at home’.  Add in a level of closed restaurants and the demand on retail food markets is severely stressed.

In major urban areas the larger retailers are unable to keep up with demand.  This is creating an outward spread as people drive further and further distances to find their needs.  Those who travel a distance ultimately stock-up more; thus the outward spider web-cycle is created.  Based on ground reports Atlanta Georgia is a prime example.

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