White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hassett discusses the U.S. economy’s 2.6 percent growth in the fourth quarter, and the outlook for the U.S. economy through the rest of 2019.

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Notice how most of the financial pundits are focusing on what the “global economy” needs; specifically what the EU and China need to do to gain economic growth.  From that position, the U.S. trade reset is adverse to their financial interest; those financial interests are driven by Wall Street not Main Street.
Economic nationalists who understand the concept of ‘America First’ focus on what the USA economy needs, and do not accept a position that the U.S. should acquiesce our position to benefit the economic needs of other nations.  That’s the primary difference.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on CNBC to discuss the latest releases of economic stats and the on-going trade talks between the U.S. and China.  Kudlow notes the U.S. and China are making progress specifically due to USTR Robert Lighthizer.  Interesting interview.

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Nuance and team subtlety are important here. Larry Kudlow is a loyal soldier, no question, but his economic leaning is toward trade outcomes that benefit Wall Street… Robert Lighthizer is a fierce battle-hardened trade expert, with an outlook that is multi-generational toward Main Street.
Listen to Lighthizer talk about the economic future for his grandkids in his congressional testimony yesterday and you’ll see what I mean. NO COMPROMISE with China.  Lighthizer is prepared to fight all of Main Street’s enemies, including congress.
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You might want to bookmark this congressional testimony from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to the House Ways and Means Committee for specific purposes…
There are many people who are understandably worried that any U.S. trade agreement between the U.S. and China might not have the most ferocious teeth behind a binding enforcement provision.  If you listen to Ambassador Lighthizer he makes clear that President Donald Trump, and the negotiating team, will not accept any agreement that does not have the strongest enforcement mechanisms at every level.

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In his testimony Lighthizer walks through the basic outline of what a U.S. successful agreement would look like.  While increased Chinese purchases to lower the deficit are a part of the goal, they are a VERY SMALL part of the goal.
The protection of U.S. intellectual property; the removal of non-tariff trade barriers; the confrontation of currency manipulation and the sector by sector enforcement provisions are the primary objective.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has completed the section 232 investigation on the auto industry, reviewing the sector as a vital economic interest for continued national security.

The content of the investigative finding is unknown. The Commerce Department has privately delivered the 232 report directly to the White House. However, with the possibility of the report empowering President Trump to implement 20 to 25% import auto tariffs industry executives are proactively going bananas.
An important aspect here is that the USMCA (U.S., Mexico and Canada) agreement exempts the trilateral North American pact from any auto tariff fear. If the vehicle consists of 75% North American (USMCA) content, there’s no tariff.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest consumer price information today which shows overall low inflation at 1.6 percent (with energy price deflation, and flat food prices).
Excluding food and energy costs the total CPI remains low at 2.2%.   This low inflation is the exact opposite of what financial media were predicting when President Trump began the series of import tariffs in 2017, which continued throughout last year.

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When President Trump began the tariffs against global Steel and Aluminum imports; and when President Trump began the first set of tariffs against Chinese imports; almost all financial media went into fits of apoplexy claiming we would see massive increases in prices.   Reality shows their doomsday predictions were completely over-hyped.
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It’s an interesting exercise to consider just how much national economic policy shifts can impact U.S. workers and industry.  Only a few years ago the ‘best play‘ for auto executives was shifting manufacturing overseas or to Mexico.
Today, with the advent of a comprehensive energy policy, enhanced U.S. investment incentives, re-prioritized trade expectations, focused tariffs, lowered regulations, and expanded  economic freedom allowing consumer demand to drive investment decisions, the entire landscape of a massive industry shifts.

Now the ‘best play‘ is for multinational firms to focus on expanded investment directly in the U.S.A.  Simple, yet stunningly consequential:

CHICAGO – Ford said Thursday it will hire 500 workers and invest $1 billion in its Chicago assembly operations to help keep up with booming demand for sport and crossover-utility vehicles.

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Two Canadian political and economic observers, Ezra Levant of The Rebel.media and lawyer and consultant Manny Montenegrino, discuss how the USMCA grants special consideration to Mexico that Canada doesn’t receive.

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Historians will note the trilateral negotiations, including the U.S. and Canada, broke down in a series of events between October 2017 and January 2018; culminating with USTR Robert Lighthizer and President Trump deciding to focus on a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and Mexico that Canada was later forced to join.
The intransigent demands by Canada, which would have forced the U.S. to accept any Canada-China trade deal, was the fracture point.  [SEE HERE] This strategic mistake by Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland created the downstream consequences now beginning to surface.
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ACTION ALERT: The Decepticon caucus inside the senate, under the control of U.S. Wall Street’s primary CoC Lobbyist and Big Club President Tom Donohue, are assembling to launch a full frontal assault against President Trump’s trade policies. Seriously watch out for Senators Pat Toomey, Rob Portman and Ron Johnson:

Toomey said reining in Trump’s tariff powers also has strong backing from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable and dozens of other trade associations. “There’s clearly a lot of momentum, but only time will tell whether it’s enough to get over the goal line.” (link)

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appeared on Fox Business today to discuss President Trump’s State of the Union address and the Trump administration’s economic policies.

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One of President Trump’s more strategic messages within the State of the Union speech last night surrounds his statement toward China, Chairman Xi, and the proxy province of North Korea, Chairman Kim.  Emphasis mine:

[…]  “As part of a bold new diplomacy, we continue our historic push for peace on the Korean Peninsula. Our hostages have come home, nuclear testing has stopped, and there has not been a missile launch in 15 months.”
“If I had not been elected President of the United States, we would right now, in my opinion, be in a major war with North Korea. Much work remains to be done, but my relationship with Kim Jong Un is a good one. And Chairman Kim and I will meet again on February 27 and 28 in Vietnam.”

Beyond announcing the dates and location for the next summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un; many domestic political opponents, and even some allies, might criticize the highlighted part of the statement from the position of self importance.
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The heartbeat of MAGAnomics is Main Street USA.  Keeping in mind we have suffered through three decades of economic and financial policy that was specifically structured to the benefit of Wall Street (globalists) over Main Street (nationalism); back in 2015 and 2016 when Candidate Trump started to put specifics on his economic proposals we were able to map out some likely possibilities.

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All significant economic changes take years to fully mature.  However, because it was easy to identify where nationalist economic policy would run into conflict with the prior globalist data-trends, we were able to predict a series of economic disconnects.
The primary disconnect is where Main Street inflation, wage growth and GDP growth, would be disconnected from the Federal reserve monetary policy.  Any Fed action would impact Wall Street results (sad trombone); but the disconnect that was caused by 30-years of diminished Main Street value (U.S. investment went overseas), and would mean MAGAnomic policy would grow the internal U.S. economy regardless of the Fed action.
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