Canada completes the North American cycle with their ratification of the USMCA to replace NAFTA. Mexico and the U.S. ratified the new trade agreement last year and January respectively.  The Canadian parliament did so yesterday.

CANADA – Canada on Friday formally approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), taking the last legislative step to implementation of the deal to replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The trade deal, ratified by the Mexican legislature last June and by Congress in January, was formally ratified by the Canadian Senate Friday, and shortly thereafter received royal assent, the Canadian governor general’s approval.

The deal was passed through the legislature before Parliament shut down for five weeks in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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7:30pm – THE PRESIDENT participates in a working dinner with the President of the Federative Republic of Brazil

White House – President Donald J. Trump will meet President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, March 7, 2020. President Trump and President Bolsonaro will discuss opportunities to build a more prosperous, secure, and democratic world.

As leaders of the Hemisphere’s two largest economies, they will also discuss opportunities for restoring democracy in Venezuela, bringing peace to the Middle East, implementing pro-growth trade policies, and investing in infrastructure. The President will use this meeting as an opportunity to thank Brazil for its strong alliance with the United States. (link)

The potential for supply chain disruption as a result of China dealing with the Coronavirus, and almost a complete shutdown of their manufacturing economy, is looming heavy upon Wall Street multinationals invested in China.
However, tangentially related, as a result of USMCA we are now seeing signs of shifted investment into North America and increases in forecasts for U.S. manufacturing.

(Via CNBC) […] Early in the week, New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for general business conditions posted a reading of 12.9, up 8 points from January and its best level since May. New orders surged to 22.1, the highest since September 2017, and shipments rose to 18.9, the best since November 2018.
On Thursday, the Philadelphia survey exploded 20 points higher to 36.7, the highest since February 2017. New orders hit their highest since May 2018. (more)

The Philadelphia FED tracks factory orders in eastern Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey, and Delaware.  New orders in that region soared far higher than all expectations, reflecting a strong consumer-driven economy with ongoing purchases of durable goods.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the excellent January jobs report.  Job gains and wage increases are all going in the right direction…. And Stuart Varney immediately asks: “do we need more immigration”?

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BLS Wage growth chart below [Table B3].
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As we start to head deeper into the 2020 presidential election year, there is some very good news for President Trump about how Americans rate their satisfaction; and some very bad news for Democrats who are trying to impeach this success.
According to the latest data from Gallup: “Americans’ average satisfaction rating for the 27 issues Gallup has tracked consistently since 2001 is now 47%. This is up three points from a year ago and is the highest since the January 2005 poll.”
In the measures of satisfaction covering the first three years of President Trump in office there are some remarkable increases in key measures:

(data link)

As President Trump prepares to deliver his State of the Union speech to congress, these results will likely provide some measurable data for him to highlight.  Satisfaction with the U.S. economy has jumped a whopping 22 percent since President Trump took office.
As noted above, the economy, national security, military and state of race relations all provide double-digit increases in American satisfaction during President Trump’s first three years in office.
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Earlier today President Trump traveled to Dana Incorporated, a manufacturing facility for axel housings and machined products in Warren, Michigan, to celebrate the signing of the USMCA trade agreement with American workers.  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Okay, let’s get back to work. Come on. (Applause.) I love that song, but every once in a while, we have to get back to work. (Laughter.)

So I am very honored to be at Dana Incorporated, a tremendous company, a plant in Warren, Michigan. We’re very proud of Michigan. (Applause.) Dana has been around — I also like it because we happened to win here, so I was very happy with that. (Applause.) Very happy with that.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their first estimate of Q4 GDP growth today.  The BEA first estimate is 2.1 percent growth for the fourth quarter and 2.3 percent growth for the year. [Data Here]   The U.S. economy is now approximately $21.7 trillion.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ‘big picture’ outlook for the U.S. economy.  Strong employment, strong wage growth, strong consumer spending, and now the USMCA passage delivering the backdrop for domestic capital investment.   Good interview:

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The headwinds by Boeing and the GM strike had some negative impact.  However, 2019 was dominated by Wall Street multinational investors taking the ‘wait-n-see’ position on the China/Asia -vs- USMCA trade dynamic (manufacturing investment) overall.
The USMCA passage gives certainty to North American manufacturing investment.  The China ‘phase-one’ agreement allows time for re-positioning, and/or time to extract profits from prior investment.  A corporate decision to manufacture in China is now based on an entirely different set of considerations than 24 months ago…. ‘phase-one’ buys time but doesn’t reduce the long-term risk.  North America is now the place for investment stability.
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Earlier today President Trump signed the historic USMCA trade agreement, making good on his 2016 campaign promise to replace the NAFTA trade agreement with a more balanced and reciprocal trade deal for the American people.  USMCA replaces the NAFTA agreement that resulted in the loss of millions of American jobs impacting hundreds of manufacturing communities across our county.
Amid the key changes is a closing of a loophole allowing Mexico and Canada to assemble components imported from Asia. The new agreement bolsters American workers and American manufacturers with content rules requiring origination of material in North America. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. That’s beautiful music. Such talented musicians, and we appreciate it very much.
We have a tremendous — (applause) — we have a tremendous list of people here today. In fact, so long that if I announced every name, we’d be here for about three hours. (Laughter.) And we have to get back to business. Everybody does.
Please sit down. Please.
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Reuters is well known for promoting a globalist, open border, multicultural agenda.  So it doesn’t come as a surprise to see Reuters targeting Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) for blocking central-American migrants; and rebuking AMLO for working with President Donald Trump to stop mass illegal migration.
It is too early to tell whether Mexico is genuine in their commitment to stop the highly organized and funded traveling caravans, which often contain thousands of marching border-crossers; however, the economic leverage, tariffs President Trump threatened for non compliance during 2019, was not simply an idle threat.  It appears AMLO has realized that President Trump doesn’t bluff.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador faces growing criticism he is doing U.S. President Donald Trump’s bidding after erecting a “wall” of security forces who clashed with Central American migrants near the Guatemala border this week.
Mexico, under the threat of punitive U.S. tariffs, has bowed to Trump’s demands to contain mass movements of migrants traveling through the country toward the U.S. border.

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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, says the USMCA positions the U.S. to begin focusing on a new trade agreement with Europe and others. Secretary Ross notes the administration initiates the EU from a position that talks will be successful. It is only if talks are not successful that Europe has to worry about tariffs. Too funny:

…”Frankly, I’ve seen a little bit of a sense of panic among some of the Europeans, because they know that with us solidifying both the USMCA and China ‘phase-one’ we’re in much stronger negotiating position than we’ve ever been”…

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