Justin from Canada travels to the White House for a conversation with President Trump about the USMCA deal, ratification, and a request from Canada for assistance in their conflict with China.  The relationship between President Trump and the arrogant Justin from Canada is tenuous at best.  [Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript] 12:10 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much. We had some good news. The market hit a all-time high today. The S&P just broke its record, so we’re very happy about that. The stock market continues to do well. Jobs have been literally through the roof. And, speaking of jobs, we have the USMCA with Canada, with Mexico. And we’ve come a long way. It’s a great agreement. As you know, Mexico, yesterday, approved it.
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The construct of the USMCA was always anticipated to sail through ratification in Mexico because, well, quite frankly, the USMCA is specifically structured to provide great benefit toward Mexico. It’s not because the language within the USMCA favors Mexico, but rather the rules are centered around deregulating industry, and lifting wages.
The rules-of-origin, in combination with mandated minimum wage rates attached to the manufacturing sector; and the fact that Mexico has the lowest current wage rates in North American; specifically means that Mexican workers stand to get the biggest financial benefits… and that’s ok.  Trump, Lighthizer and Ross designed it that way.

The U.S. benefits when the Mexican wage rates are raised.  Heck, there was a time in the early negotiations, after Canada was kicked out of the room, when Secretary Wilbur Ross was advocating for an $11/hr minimum wage in Mexico, and the Mexicans were like ‘whoa, wait a minute, too high, too high’… [It was quite funny, because Trump was being called racist simultaneous to him trying to give a $85/day pay raise to Mexicans (from $3/day)].

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico on Wednesday became the first country to ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) agreed late last year to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump.

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While previously pledged support for the Northern Triangle region related to Homeland Security and combating organized crime will continue, the State Department suspends any further financial assistance ($200 million) until the migration crisis is resolved.

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[Transcript at 01:28] “Next, I have a quick update for you on U.S. foreign assistance to the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. As you know, in March, the President concluded these countries have not effectively prevented illegal migrants from coming to the United States.”
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Charles Payne, filling in for Maria Bartiromo, interviews White House Manufacturing and Trade Policy advisor Peter Navarro.  Unfortunately the interview begins with a discussion of tariff polling….  The vast majority of Americans have no understanding of the impact of tariffs and/or MAGAnomic policy; they only know the economic outcomes they can feel.
Mr. Navarro walks through how tariffs interact with global supply chains and the financial manipulation by multinational corporate interests.

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Too funny…. apparently Mexican Economy Minister Graciela Marquez didn’t watch what happened to China (or Canada) when they made similar threats of retaliation against President Trump’s tariffs.  Seriously.


President Trump wants the border secure, yes. However, President Trump would also welcome a trade tariff battle with Mexico (they can’t win); so this isn’t a technically a threat from the position of POTUS:

(Reuters) – Mexico will be ready to retaliate in kind if the U.S. government imposes tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States, Mexican Economy Minister Graciela Marquez said on Friday.

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Yesterday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a press conference to answer questions about the U.S-Mexicos migration and border security agreement. After reviewing some info from today, I’m inserting a graphic into Pompeo’s transcribed responses to better understand the “45 days” aspect. [Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript – (emphasis mine)] SECRETARY POMPEO: A couple things this afternoon. First, I’ll give some remarks later this week that are consistent with what we’ve been working on for my entire time here in the Indo-Pacific.
I’ll be speaking to a group of Indian business leaders in preparation for the trip that I’ll take in a couple weeks where I’ll be visiting India, an important part of President Trump’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific. And I’m looking forward to the opportunity both to give the set of remarks about how it is our relationship is so closely tied economically, but also importantly the things that the United States and India can continue to do to build out what is an incredibly important relationship for both countries.
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Earlier this morning President Donald Trump called in to CNBC to discuss a variety of subjects including: the ongoing trade negotiations with China; the threat of tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration; the federal reserve; the status of the economy; the duplicity of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; collusion by democrats; the upcoming G20 summit in Japan, and much, much, more.
During the interview President Trump directly calls out the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for their anti-American position and self-interested advocacy for Wall Street multinational corporations. Additionally, President Trump pushes back against the claim that tariffs lead to higher U.S. prices, citing examples of China subsidizing their exports and low U.S. inflation.  Must Watch:

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(LOL… POTUS Trump chomping-at-the-bit to get tariffs on the EU.)

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Former White House China trade negotiator Clete Willems makes a rare appearance to discuss President Trump’s ongoing trade position with China; and the lessons they are learning from Trump’s severity with Mexico.
Fox News talking-hair Leland Vitter, a prime example of the axiom: “a little knowledge is dangerous”, tries his best to promote the preferred Murdoch points; however, Vitter finds himself struggling against the weight of the examples highlighted by Mr. Willems. Quite funny actually:

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Worth noting: President Trump spoke with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) yesterday (See Tweets Below).
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Appearing on Fox News Sunday acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan discusses the approach by President Trump to impose import tariffs on Mexico if the administration of President Lopez-Obrador does not fulfill their pledge.
Along with outlining the Mexican agreement, McAleenan notes President Trump is absolutely willing to impose the tariffs on Mexico if there is no substantive and immediate improvement to stem the flow of Central American migrants.

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The border and migration “agreement” with Mexico is a smart move by President Trump. If you worry that Mexico won’t take any action, well, don’t underestimate the dynamic President Trump just put into play.
Financial investment flows based on expectation, probability and risk management. If you don’t think Mexico will follow-up with their end of the bargain; then you are predicting the tariffs will reappear in 90-days.

Overlooked by most of the financial pundits President Trump has pre-positioned risk management actuaries with the basis for their analysis and internal investment advice. In a similar move last year, President Trump suspended tariffs against China based on an agreement (G20 summit in Argentina). After several months and a 150 page initial agreement of principle, China walked away from their prior promises and  terms.  The tariffs against China were immediately implemented at the previous rate.
That China example with tariffs is now the baseline for all multinational investment to consider as they review their current exposure in Mexico. If any financial investor (bank or corporation) believes Mexico will not adhere to the border/migration agreement, then by extension they are accepting/predicting the Mexican tariffs will take effect in 90-days.
Put another way… President Trump has just given notice to all global business interests to organize their financial affairs toward Mexico within 90 days.
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