It seems like such a long time ago, in the spring of 2014, when we first identified the fingerprints of the GOPe road map which eventually led to the GOPe “Splitter Strategy“.  However, one variable remains as critical today as it was almost two years ago, FLORIDA.

Back in 2014 the most important tripwire we set, was to watch what the GOPe in Florida did with their delegates.  Our hunch was the national RNC power-structure would coordinate with the state-level republican party and present a mid-March “winner-take-all” delegate distribution to benefit the low-polling, low-turnout, low-vote goal of Jeb Bush.

Florida would thereby be the Fulcrum for the Jeb Bush road-map.  If Team Jeb could fracture the non-Jeb vote enough, the approximately 20% pro-Jeb vote would be all that was needed to capture the full 99 delegates.   The road map then picks up speed and it’s all downhill to the convention for Jeb’s anointment. (more…)

A poll conducted by Clout Research for World Net Daily (full pdf below) shows candidate Donald Trump with a commanding lead amid all major demographics.  The poll also contains a small sample of Democrats (19), Independents (61), as well as Republican (365) voters.

It should be noted that generally speaking, when considering content coverage, WND has a favorable lean toward Senator Ted Cruz.  The result below is from the Republican respondents:

A review of the poll internals show Donald Trump leading with all religious affiliations. In addition Trump leads all ideologies except “strongly conservative” (far right) which favor Ted Cruz.  Hence, more statistical affirmation of what most already accept:  Donald Trump, like Ronald Reagan, is a center-right candidate.

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NOTE – Bookmark this post and date for reference in November 2016.

A recent Rasmussen poll (unfortunately, private data) shows Hillary Clinton 37% and Donald Trump 36% in a statistical dead heat. However, if you look at the actual data as presented by Rasmussen you find:

[…] Seventy-five percent (75%) of Democrats back Clinton, up five points from October. Trump draws support from 63% of Republicans, virtually unchanged from the previous survey. Unaffiliated voters prefer Trump 36% to 25%, but 29% of these voters like some other candidate. These findings also are similar to the October survey. (link)

If Trump is tied with Hillary and yet only 63% of identified Republicans support Trump this means a larger portion of Republicans are “non-Trump”, than Democrats who are “non-Hillary”.  Here’s the math as presented which shows how centrist and dominant Donald Trump’s appeal is. (more…)

Lou Dobbs from Fox Business Network nails this outline 100%:

Unrelated yet interesting – Is anyone else noticing that Fox Networks, well, actually Roger Ailes, are hedging their bets on Donald Trump?

While the primary broadcast Fox News Network is essentially a non-stop anti-Trump propaganda machine, heavily invested in the immigration amnesty angle, currently promoting Marco Rubio because Jeb cannot gain traction, it appears Roger Ailes has made a strategic decision to allow pro-Trump speaking on Fox Business Network. (more…)

A series of tweets from candidate Donald Trump toward the Republican Party of Virginia have many wondering what’s going on.

It would appear Mr. Trump, and/or the Trump Campaign, has become aware of the RPV intentions to force Virginia voters to swear an loyalty oath (statement of intent) prior to voting in the upcoming primary.  We Provided The Leaked Documents In November

Virginia is an interesting state when it comes to the Republican Party and conservative voters.  Partly due to the vicinity to Washington DC, and party due to many of the professionally republican living in the state, the hierarchy of the political party apparatus is blue-blooded GOPestablishment yet base of the voting electorate are vulgarian minded conservatives.

This historical antagonism has led to exceptionally polarized outcomes; David Brat defeating consummate GOPe Eric Cantor is the most brutally obvious recently.

Here’s the full back story, the leaked documents, the loyalty oath being demanded, and some rather interesting details into who’s-who. (more…)

Many people have discussed the risks of putting all your viable candidacy eggs in the evangelical basket. An article via CNN outlines a group of Super-PACs and donor interests who are now setting Ted Cruz in the cross hairs.

This CNN article highlights one of the biggest challenges for any candidate who is unable to build a broad and diverse base of support. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee are all relying heavily on Iowa voters. Similarly, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and again, Marco Rubio (firewall) are dependent on success with New Hampshire voters.

Meanwhile the breakaway frontrunner, Donald Trump, targets America-first voters, the biggest, strongest and most broad base of them all.

Washington (CNN) – Ted Cruz, staring at hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative advertisements against him in Iowa that show only signs of growing, is battling to keep pace there with his most aggressive push yet to maintain his momentum in the Hawkeye State. (more…)

A national poll from Emerson College (full pdf below) shows essentially the same results from recent polling organizations.  Donald Trump with a significant lead at 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 21% and Marco Rubio in third at 13%.

The sample sizes are small, but the results are consistent with larger poll samples (field narrowed to top nine polled results – and graphic adjusted accordingly):

(Methodology Extracted) The Emerson College Polling Society poll was conducted from Thursday, December 17 through Sunday, December 20, 2015. (more…)

Facing the reality of diminished usefulness as a South Carolina splitter, Senator Lindsey Graham has announced he is “suspending” (ie. dropping out) his campaign to run for President.  He is the fourth candidate to exit the race. (Perry, Walker and Jindal prior)

Unfortunately this disrupts our previously unblemished record of successfully naming the drop-outs before they occur, RATTS!! (We thought Rand Paul was going to be next). Here’s Senator Grahams’ announcement:

With Donald Trump and Ted Cruz/Marco Rubio holding such severe polling majority positions in South Carolina the usefulness of Lindsey was essentially nil. Lindsey quitting now allows candidates Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush a little more space to gobble up some South Carolina voters. (more…)

.@JebBush: "To get praise from Vladimir Putin is not going to help Donald Trump" https://t.co/6OZtrfIwim https://t.co/6T57DyWj5G

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) December 18, 2015

“Here’s the thing, when you’re dealing with a world leader, you wonder whether or not he’s telling the truth,” Bush told reporters Monday. “I’ve never had to worry about that with Vladimir Putin. Sometimes he says things I don’t want to hear, but I know he’s always telling me the truth.”

~ George Bush 2007

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CBS coordinated with YouGov to present three “battleground state” panel polls today.  The polling methodology is rather peculiar because it’s not random sample polling, but rather targeted specifically to prior respondents of same, albeit earlier, YouGov polling.  They fill in the non-repeat respondents from other prior contacted buckets.

The downside to this panel-approach is it’s essentially like taking a focus group and tracking their trend over-time, filling in those who don’t show up for the next interview by reaching out to other focus groups to fill the void.  This type of on-line polling is not scientific and prone to flaws and/or manipulation by the interpreter of the data.

The pollster is reaching out to a specific data-set, and in order to achieve the needed total number they need to reach out to ‘known sub-sets‘ within their data-base.  In order for this approach to be useful – the integrity of the people gathering the data has to be beyond reproach.  (more…)