The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their first estimate of Q4 GDP growth today.  The BEA first estimate is 2.1 percent growth for the fourth quarter and 2.3 percent growth for the year. [Data Here]   The U.S. economy is now approximately $21.7 trillion.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ‘big picture’ outlook for the U.S. economy.  Strong employment, strong wage growth, strong consumer spending, and now the USMCA passage delivering the backdrop for domestic capital investment.   Good interview:

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The headwinds by Boeing and the GM strike had some negative impact.  However, 2019 was dominated by Wall Street multinational investors taking the ‘wait-n-see’ position on the China/Asia -vs- USMCA trade dynamic (manufacturing investment) overall.
The USMCA passage gives certainty to North American manufacturing investment.  The China ‘phase-one’ agreement allows time for re-positioning, and/or time to extract profits from prior investment.  A corporate decision to manufacture in China is now based on an entirely different set of considerations than 24 months ago…. ‘phase-one’ buys time but doesn’t reduce the long-term risk.  North America is now the place for investment stability.
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Something is shaping up in the political background around the USMCA.

Yesterday Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) sent a second letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urging USMCA ratification.  Team Trump and Team AMLO are working together against Team Pelosi & AFL-CIO Richard Trumka.
Essentially AMLO has been saying the labor provisions within the USMCA trade pact are already being put in place by Mexico, and Pelosi should quit trying to hide behind labor concerns to avoid ratification.

Tomorrow, on the eve of Thanksgiving at the request of the Trump administration, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Mexican Foreign Minister Jesus Seade and Canadian Deputy Minister Chrystia Freeland are holding a meeting to discuss the  AFL-CIO/Pelosi issues within the USMCA labor provisions.
FM Chrystia Freeland is irrelevant to the meeting; she’s a potted-plant rubber stamp for whatever scheme Pelosi is cooking. It is House Speaker Pelosi who is using her pressure over labor unions to hide behind AFL-CIO Richard Trumka and claim U.S. labor unions have issues with the USMCA labor provisions. It ain’t about labor; it is all political cover.
However, it is interesting that USTR Lighthizer, a man with the patience of Job, called Jesus Seade and Freeland to DC:

WASHINGTON – The three trade ministers from the United States, Canada and Mexico are set to meet in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the deal to replace NAFTA, seven people familiar with the plans told POLITICO.
The meeting involving U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Deputy Canadian Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Undersecretary for North America Jesús Seade comes as the Trump administration is nearing a compromise with House Democrats to make changes to the USMCA.

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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News to discuss two key economic and trade issues: (1) the current status of U.S-China trade discussions “round one”; and (2) the status of USMCA ratification (Pelosi’s delay).
Nothing in the China trade discussion is solid, until everything in the China trade discussion is settled; this is one of the key aspects to President Trump’s directive to USTR Robert Lighthizer.  No deal is a more favorable outcome than the construct of a trade deal that cannot be enforced.
On the USMCA ratification, again it all falls upon the politics of Pelosi.  The agreement would pass tomorrow if it were put up to a vote; there is no controversy.  Speaker Pelosi is holding back the ratification vote for pure political purposes.

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USMCA ratification is the first domino in long-chain of ‘America First’ economic benefits. As soon as USMCA passes a wave of North American investment will surge. The downstream consequences includes leverage for U.S-China, U.S-Europe, U.S-India and U.S-U.K trade agreements.
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Commerce Secretary delivered a speech to the Federalist Society today as he explained U.S. trade policy under President Trump and the long-term goals and objectives.

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In the bigger picture… Within the trade team, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is positioned with primary responsibility toward the EU and India. Ross clear-cuts through the politics, explains Trump’s objectives amid the trade proposals, and paves a path for U.S. Trade Rep Bob Lighthizer to engage his counterparts.
India has always been a key strategic nation within the global trade-realignment taking place by the Trump administration.  Under all of the banter, the “Indo-Pacific” strategy is structurally the decoupling of the U.S. from China. As a part of the strategy President Trump has positioned the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as benefactors in manufacturing & trade as an outcome of the U.S. decoupling from China.

However, India has genuine concerns about the global dynamic. Specifically, India is worried about allowing the multinationals to have influence over their economy and social structure. In this regard India is not wrong; their concerns are not unfounded.
We can all see, heck we’ve lived through, massive multinational corporations quickly gaining too much influence; including -eventually- corporate influence over the politics of a nation. That inherently leads to corruption.
When Americans see it in other nations we call it “bribery and corruption”, but when it happens in Washington, DC, we call it “lobbying”; the process is exactly the same.
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Today, President Donald J. Trump met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Republic of India at the United Nations General Assembly. The leaders discussed progress on different aspects of their strategic partnership and upcoming opportunities to ensure it remains strong. The President reaffirmed the importance of greatly increasing trade between the United States and India, and highlighted the need for resolving barriers to free, fair, and reciprocal trade, which includes improving United Statescompanies’ market access in India.  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s a great honor, as you know, to be with — because we were together just the other day in front of 59,000 people in the stadium, and that was a great day — Prime Minister Modi of India.
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The first bilateral discussion meeting at the 2019 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) takes place between President Trump and Prime Minister Khan of Pakistan.
As customary during each of the bilats the leaders take questions from the media. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s a great honor to be with my friend, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. And we have some great discussions going on with Pakistan about a lot of things, including the Taliban and Afghanistan, and many other things. And trade, I think, maybe is one of the most important. We’re going to increase trade with Pakistan by a tremendous margin.
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Earlier today President Trump was introduced to by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to an enthusiastic crowed at a historic Houston event.   The introduction is the culmination of two-years of strategic geopolitical alignment within Trump’s new “Indo-Pacfic” strategy.
The introduction by Prime Minister Modi was effusive in praise for the partnership that has been developing ever since the 2017 global economic alignment began.  WATCH:

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Long before the term “Indo-Pacific” was used by the administration, the trade reset strategy within the ASEAN nations became clear. President Trump positioned the fulcrum of the strategy around a trilateral alliance consisting of Japan, India and the United States.
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Today President Trump will be traveling to NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, to join Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a celebratory event. India is a key geopolitical ally in President Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy. [Economics, Trade and Security]
Update: Video Added

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President Trump holds a bilateral discussion with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  PM Modi is a key figure in any strategy designed to blunt the influence of China.  [Video and Transcript below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s great to be with Prime Minister Modi of India. Incredible country and he’s an incredible man. Just had a tremendous election victory and he really is a man who’s loved and respected in his country.
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