While the general position will be to applaud President Trump and CIA Director Mike Pompeo for their commitment to transparency, CTH considers the release against the backdrop of the Trump Doctine.
Right before President Trump heads off to Asia for an extremely important economic and national security visit with wide-ranging implications; and knowing the larger adversarial economic geography surrounding China and their allies (hint, Pakistan); and knowing the Indo-Pacific engagement strategy carried by Trump and Tillerson; and knowing the Trump doctrine is based on brutally righteous sunlight and leverage upon various international deceptions therein… the CIA releases 470k files on the Bin Laden raid highlighting the duplicity between Pakistan and terrorists.

CIA Abbottabad Compound Material –  In an effort to further enhance public understanding of al-Qa’ida, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on 1 November 2017 released additional materials recovered in the 2 May 2011 raid on Usama Bin Ladin’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
(more…)

The White House shares that President Donald Trump called Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Sunday to congratulate him on his overwhelming victory. PM Abe had called a snap election and his ruling coalition won a clear majority with more than two-thirds of the Japanese parliament’s 465 seats.

President Donald J. Trump spoke yesterday with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan to congratulate him on his recent electoral victory. The two leaders underscored the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and a strong United States-Japan alliance. President Trump reaffirmed his desire to continue working closely with Prime Minister Abe, and said he looks forward to visiting Japan in early November. (link)

Prime Minister Abe is a key strategic ally in the region from a national security and economic perspective. As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson outlined extensively last week, the regional Indo-Pacific alliances are repositioning strategically against both the direct threat of the DPRK and the influence of China.
(more…)

Panda Reacts To Finding Lion Tracks Amid Shrinking Bamboo Forest !

A Chinese central planner, Zhang Yong, the vice-head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), made a statement today (during the communist party congress) that carries much more significance than most people recognize.

The statement was made on behalf of communist China’s central planners and is directed toward what sectors of their economy they will focus investment (emphasis mine).

BEIJING (Reuters) – China will introduce measures aimed at guiding private investment into areas that have a higher growth potential, a senior official with the state planning agency said on Saturday.
China also would take steps to lower the investment threshold for private investors, said Zhang Yong, the vice-head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), during a briefing on the sidelines of China’s Communist Party Congress.
The manufacturing industry as well as the property market, which have been driving private investment, are now quite weak, Zhang said.
“Now we want to attract investment in sectors with growth potential such as subway projects.” (link)

Notice two key points: #1 forecast growth in manufacturing is seen as “quite weak”, and #2 they are shifting toward building their own domestic transportation infrastructure.
(more…)

Those who are following the Trump Doctrine, strategic U.S. geopolitical alliances, and the bigger part of the big picture for how President Trump and the administration are positioning the U.S. economy toward lessening ties with China, will note the significance of this speech and the content therein.  The media will remain oblivious to it.
The Trump Doctrine surrounds modern international economic engagement only possible with a president who is not beholden to the multinational corporations and multinational banks who occupy lobbying offices on K-Street in Washington DC.  A key component of the approach is the ability to build relationships which can be leveraged for America-First interests with national economic partners aligned in common cause.
Under the Trump Doctrine, India is a strategic economic counter-weight to remove the leverage China has created for the past 20+ years.  Nothing that has happened within the strategic approach of President Trump happens accidentally.  Even the positioning of U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is a part of this dynamic lost on almost everyone except a few who understand the insight of a president who has thought through every angle for years prior to taking office.
Small, seemingly obscure, details are part of the big picture; nothing is without design.  Understanding this principle helps to assemble the framework for this speech by Secretary Rex Tillerson.  WATCH:

“China, while rising alongside India, has done so less responsibly, at times undermining the international, rules-based order even as countries like India operate within a framework that protects other nations’ sovereignty.”

(more…)

Just because western media doesn’t understand how President Trump executes a geopolitical strategy based on economic leverage, that doesn’t mean adversaries are not fully aware of the effectiveness of the approach.
The Trump Doctrine has two avenues toward dealing with national security adversaries.
The first route is direct assignment of responsibility toward the enablers: see China for North Korea; The Gulf States for Qatar (Sunni extremism); Russia for Syrian terrorism (Assad); and Pakistan for Afghanistan (Taliban); as recent examples.

However, when the geopolitical threat stems directly from the enabler, and not the enabled, the Trump Doctrine has a distinctly different and far more encompassing, approach.  Route two goes through leveraging regional allies and partners: See ASEAN and India for ¹China; and France, Poland, Baltic States for ²Russia.  And now President Trump is beginning to shift toward ³Iran.
In each case: China, Russia and Iran, unlike Western media, these powers assemble volumes of research to assist them in understanding the most likely sequence of events President Trump will take.
When we say volumes of research, we indeed mean hundreds of people researching and drafting position documents based upon every scintilla of every deal Donald J Trump has engaged in.  No expenses are spared as these state actors assemble information toward their own strategy to counter the most unpredictable adversary they have faced.
(more…)

At times Alan Dershowitz can express insufferable political opinions that can make blood pressure cuffs explode.  At other times, on the libertarian side of liberty principles, Dershowitz becomes an ally against the insufferable overbearing administrative state. He’s an odd duck, but carries a quacker worth hearing.
In this segment, the subject matter is well outlined. However, that said, along with every single person in media and punditry, Dershowitz is not connecting President Trump action to the economics of the Trump foreign policy doctrine.

.
If people would spend more time studying DJT they’d see the foreign policy strategy of President Trump clear as day. POTUS Trump surrounds himself, optically and vocally, with the overwhelming appearance of military solution providers. This is not accidental; it is entirely by design.
(more…)

Speaking today at the Bill and Melinda Gates sponsored “Grand Challenges” meeting, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson outlines the Trump administration position on U.S. aid and humanitarian relief.

“We must view foreign aid as a means to an end, not an end unto itself. A country’s prosperity and security is best sustained from within, not through foreign aid. There can be no greater measure of success than witnessing a country able to stand on its own two feet.” ~ Secretary Tillerson

[Transcript] SECRETARY TILLERSON: Good afternoon. And thank you so much, Harry, for that very kind introduction.
The work and commitment of the Bill and Melinda – of Bill and Melinda Gates and the Gates Foundation that they have undertaken across a range of humanitarian initiatives have had an extraordinary impact on eradicating diseases and improving health outcomes for people the world over. And I offer my thanks once again, as I have thanked them in the past, to Bill and Melinda both for this life-long passion and commitment – much of which I have seen up close and personal. And I certainly am thankful for what they have done to help so many.
(more…)

President Trump tweeted this morning while Secretary Rex Tillerson is in China meeting with Xi Jinping about what to do with North Korea. ….or put another way: Tillerson chats about Rocket-boy consequences with big Panda while the sound of a lion roaring is heard over the background of the bamboo forest.
If you’ve been following along, Trump/Tillerson creating the need for ‘Magnanimous Panda’ is actually quite fun to watch unfold.

President Trump will never use the U.S. military to solve this regional issue.  The national security strategy is based entirely on economics (leverage) and diplomacy (ownership).  President Trump’s words and rhetoric against Kim Jong-un, and the response from Jong-un in kind toward President Trump, creates the foundation of a need for magnanimous panda to step in.
Remember, Beijing doesn’t want to take ownership of DPRK.  China prefers to retain influence over behavior, they are the enablers, but not be directly responsible for the enforcement of any agreement which comes with attached consequences (economic punishment) for DPRK violations.
(more…)

Before getting to the heart of the latest announcement it is important to note there is a great deal of rapid economic action taking shape in China ahead of Secretary Rex Tillerson’s arrival.   ¹China has stopped the import of recyclables.  ²Chinese manufacturing is slowing.  ³Comac (chinese aerospace) has successfully tested their latest airliner.
#1 is important because it reflects the opinion of the central economic planners in Beijing that #2 is more severe than currently publicized. #3 is important because Canada’s plan in the Boeing -vs- Bombardier trade dispute was to look toward China to purchase Canadian subsidized aerospace products. Purchases won’t happen because China is creating it’s own airline manufacturing industry with Comac (a Beijing subsidized industry). However, China is more than willing to give the illusion of trade in order to steal Bombardier technology.
Those are all subtle signals of economic activity within China.
However, today the bigger economic story is an outcome of President Trump and Treasury Mnuchin outlining specific sanctions against any entity that engages in economic activity with North Korea.
Beijing understands the consequences to the Trump/Mnuchin sanctions and finds themselves in a tight position where allowing DPRK business interests to operate within China violates the intended purpose to cut off North Korea from it’s economic enablers.

(Via Daily Mail) China has ordered North Korean companies in the country to shut down by January as it applies UN sanctions imposed following Pyongyang’s sixth nuclear test.
The commerce ministry in Beijing said today the companies, including joint ventures with Chinese firms, have 120 days to close from the date the United Nations resolution was adopted on September 12.

(more…)

For those who have followed the months-long strategy of President Trump toward North Korea and China, the latest words from China fall squarely into place. Unfortunately for those who have not followed the approach, the consequential nuance will be lost.
What is happening publicly is entirely predictable when we accept what is happening privately, against the backdrop of activity that has taken place since February of this year.
Remember the Trumpian objective of creating the “Magnanimous Panda” as you read these latest words from Beijing:

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Reacting to remarks by North Korea’s foreign minister on Monday, China’s U.N. Ambassador Liu Jieyi told Reuters the escalating rhetoric between North Korea and the United States was getting too dangerous and the only solution was negotiations.
North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters that President Donald Trump had declared war on North Korea and Pyongyang reserves the right to take countermeasures, including shooting down U.S. bombers even if not in its air space.

(more…)