NAFTA is as precarious as a slow-spinning plate on a stick. Mexico and Canada are both  taking half-hearted turns recharging the momentum – while simultaneously looking for trade options due to, well,.. the inevitable.

The basic issue is a simple one; for the U.S. NAFTA has a fatal flaw. Canada and Mexico are used by China and Asian nations as a way to work-around direct trade with the U.S. and use NAFTA as a backdoor into the U.S. market.  It works out great for Canada and Mexico, but terrible for the U.S.  It’s a structural issue and no amount of negotiation is going to remove the fatal flaw unless Canada and Mexico agree to terms that are directly against their current financial interests.

Ergo POTUS Trump is positioned to withdraw.

Trying to keep the U.S. in NAFTA, but understanding the likelihood of exit, Justin from Canada originally approached China for a big trade deal.  Justin didn’t find Happy Panda in his discussions; instead he found The Red Dragon behind the Panda mask.  China was willing to talk trade, but China tiered their approach because Canada is only valuable to China as long as the NAFTA door is open.  Without NAFTA China has no use for Canada.

Justin left China with dragon burns and immediately realized his trade cards were getting weaker by the day…. so he had to sign-up for the Trans-Pacific-Partnership.  Unfortunately for Justin, though some think he didn’t realize the consequence, signing TPP guaranteed POTUS Trump would exit NAFTA.

Why?  Because if the U.S. stayed in NAFTA the TPP nations would now have a collective backdoor into the valuable U.S. market through Canada.  The NAFTA fundamental flaw just became more flawed.

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U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley delivered strong remarks today during a press briefing surrounding U.S. policy toward Pakistan and Iran.

“The administration is withholding $255 million in assistance to Pakistan. There are clear reasons for this. Pakistan has played a double game for years. They work with us at time, and they also harbor the terrorists that attack our troops in Afghanistan. That game is not acceptable to this administration.”

WATCH:

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Think BIGLY – On a geopolitical level the U.S. relationship with Pakistan is shadowed by a strong  Pakistani economic relationship with China.  China is Pakistan’s biggest investor.  China has also recently been identified as covertly propping up North Korea with smuggled oil shipments: “Very Disappointing“.
The central U.S. Pakistani relationship has always been about our fight against the terrorist networks of the Taliban in Afghanistan.  Pakistan has played both sides of that coin.  In August of 2017 President Trump warned Pakistan our relationship with them would be different if they did not stop enabling the Taliban.
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Known Details: •Police were called to an explosion at 7:20 a.m. ET in a below-ground walkway that connects two NYC subway lines at 42nd Street. •Responding units found an injured 27-year-old male, identified him as Akayed Ullah. •Terrorist is of Bangladeshi descent and lives in Brooklyn. •Terrorist was wearing an improvised “low-tech” explosive device attached to his body. •Three additional people in the immediate area sustained minor injuries.

•Terrorist Akayed Ullah told police he made the device at his workplace. •Terrorist is a lawful permanent resident from Bangladesh, who arrived in 2011 on an F43 family immigrant visa in 2011, according to DHS spokesperson Tyler Houlton

“DHS can confirm that the suspect was admitted to the United States after presenting a passport displaying an F43 family immigrant visa in 2011. The suspect is a Lawful Permanent Resident from Bangladesh who benefited from extended family chain migration.”

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders stated President Trump’s plan to end chain migration would have kept the suspect in the New York City attack out of the country.
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President Trump’s geopolitical economic strategy is most often talked about regarding trade, China and resetting a massive U.S. trade deficit therein.  However, a critical part of that strategy, generally overlooked by U.S. media, is the relationship President Trump is building with India.
Expanded economic engagement with India creates more than just bilateral trade opportunities. A strengthened relationship, and possibility of moving India to the top of the trade priority list, also creates leverage toward China and ASEAN partner nations.
While most were paying attention to Thanksgiving’s ‘Black Friday‘ shopping; China quietly, lowered U.S. import tariffs.  BIGLY.  See Here [ <– That’s a big ‘effen deal]
Chinese media watch President Trump’s ongoing engagement with India far more closely than U.S. media watch it.  Chairman Xi Jinping and his economic advisers know the scale of risk inherent to their economy with a growing U.S./India trade relationship.

NEW DELHI, Nov. 28 (Xinhua) — Ivanka Trump, the daughter and adviser of U.S. President Donald Trump, has arrived in India for the annual global entrepreneurship summit, foreign ministry officials said Tuesday.
The summit scheduled to held in the southern city of Hyderabad Tuesday is being co-hosted by India and the United States.

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[White House] President Donald J. Trump met today with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India in Manila, Philippines. The two leaders discussed the comprehensive strategic partnership between the United States and India and their shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
They pledged to enhance their cooperation as Major Defense Partners, resolving that two of the worlds great democracies should also have the worlds greatest militaries. President Trump expressed appreciation that Indian purchases of oil from the United States have surpassed 10 million barrels in recent months, and expressed confidence that stronger energy cooperation will be a geopolitical and economic game changer for both countries.
Prime Minister Modi noted that he looks forward to hosting the United States delegation to the upcoming Global Entrepreneurship Summit, showcasing innovation and collaboration between India and the United States.

[TRANSCRIPT] PRESIDENT TRUMP: It’s great to have Prime Minister Modi here. We’ve had him at the White House, and he’s become a friend of ours and a great gentleman doing a fantastic job in bringing around lots of factions in India — bringing them all together. That’s what I hear, and that’s good news. And it really is. It’s a lot of good reports coming out of India. So I want to congratulate you.
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President Trump, together with Team USA, attend the 31st summit of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) today.  Paying close attention to who Trump is meeting with, along with the specific length of time allocated to each of the bilateral exchanges, helps to measure the value of each participant in the larger economic strategy.

In the morning (Manilla local time – 8pm U.S. Eastern), President Donald J. Trump will participate in a photo opportunity with President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines. The President will then participate in a welcome ceremony for the 31st ASEAN Summit.
Later in the morning, the President will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull of Australia, followed by a bilateral meeting with President Duterte. In the afternoon, the President will attend the 5th U.S.-ASEAN Summit which commemorates the 40th anniversary of U.S.-ASEAN relations.
Later in the afternoon, the President will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India followed by an embassy meet and greet.
Schedule below:
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Those who have walked in the deep weeds of geopolitical strategy know the emphasis the Trump administration has placed on ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) as a counter-balance (control leverage) to the Chinese trade and military expansion.
The ongoing trade and security relationship between the U.S. and India, as well as other regional partners, is a large part of the overarching dynamic.  The ASEAN Summit in Manilla Philippines is an opportunity for President Trump to expand the conversations; enter into deeper discussions surrounding the terms of partnership; and deepen commitments toward larger U.S. international objectives.

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The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region including India, comprises a combined population of 1.85 billion people, one-fourth of the global population. From the perspective of India – “Prime Minister Modi is likely to reassert India’s push to create a global approach to deal with terrorism. He will also pitch steps to boost regional trade. One of the more significant meetings will be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with US President Donald Trump.”
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Apologies in advance to our conservative Canadian friends; but the explainer here is regarding America-First trade and economics against the backdrop of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, Canada and Mexico’s alignment therein, the APEC Summit and rainbow socks.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Justin from Canada

Here’s why Canada and Mexico signing up to TPP is great news for the U.S., and couldn’t come at a better time for NAFTA round #5 on November 17th.  We don’t want TPP to collapse, because TPP ties the hands of Canada and Mexico to elements of trade that are based on collective interests. Their joining TPP provides the U.S. leverage in NAFTA.
Remember, Vietnam is exactly 12 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern time zone.  At 7:450pm last evening in Vietnam (local time), at the last minute, Rainbow Socks backed out of the signing the TPP framework (explained here).  Twelve hours later, at 7:20am (local), the AP reported the agreement was “back on” with “a compromise”:

DANANG, Vietnam (AP) — The Latest on the summit of 21 Pacific Rim economies in Vietnam (all times local): 7:20 a.m. – Trade ministers say they have reached a basic agreement on a Pacific Rim trade pact without the United States.

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Tonight President Donald Trump will address the national assembly in Seoul, South Korea amid ongoing tensions with North Korea and regional allies over its nuclear program.  This speech is considered one of the most important policy speeches of the trip as President Trump is speaking directly to the National Assembly in the Republic of Korea.
The speech is scheduled at approximately 11:05am (local) / 9:05pm (U.S. EST)
WH Livestream Link – RSBN Livestream Link – Alternate (PBS) Livestream Link

At the conclusion of the speech (12:05pm / 10:05pm) the President and First Lady will participate in a wreath laying ceremony at Seoul National Cemetery prior to departing for China.
[1:25pm / 11:25pm departure from Pyeongtaek, Republic of Korea en route to Beijing.]
[2:40pm / 1:40am Arrival in Beijing, Peoples Republic of China.]
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Those who have followed the Chinese strategy of President Trump will note strong signals of success therein amid an advanced visit ground report from Reuters News Service.
BACKDROP – From the outset the Trump administration displayed a very specific strategy where respect toward China’s leadership was coupled with visible praise for their business acumen and kind words toward the culture of the Chinese people.
This became evident in Mar-a-largo when Prime Minister Xi Jinping and President Trump spent a weekend getting to know each other.
While the surface impression of the relationship is geopolitical adversaries, President Trump has also positioned himself inwardly toward the Chinese people as a modern counter cultural figure not concerned with political correctness and not ashamed of his business success.   This approach is intensely well received in the bamboo forest.
In a culture where the political and sociological influences have historically presented an outlook of affluence and influence as the measure of success, the image of unabashed and unapologetic opulent Trump represents the external personification of this perspective.
Quite simply, it becomes impossible for China’s control authority to ridicule a successful businessman -now influential politician- when they have been selling that image as an honorable goal for decades amid their own culture. The timing is remarkable in consequence.
Simultaneous to this impression, and in a very methodical plan to counter the expansive influence of China, President Trump has used the scale of the U.S. economy to create massive changes in geopolitical economic landscape.
While Trump’s Grandkids sing sweet Mandarin Chinese songs to Xi Jinping and Peng Liyaun (Xi’s wife and herself a cultural icon), he has simultaneously cultivated a powerful counter-leverage position with India’s Prime Minister Modi. In essence, President Trump has positioned himself -and as a consequence the United States- as a powerhouse to be courted by both sides.
India and China are direct and consequential economic adversaries.  President Trump has maneuvered our own U.S. economic policy into the position where that competitive dynamic is now leverage for U.S. economic engagement, trade deals, national security and long-term interests.
It is not coincidental that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson first injected the term “Indo-Pacific” into the geopolitical lexicon of U.S. policy.   It’s a brilliant strategy and paying huge dividends. Bigly.
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