This is too funny. Serendipitous timing. President Trump is holding a bilateral meeting with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on the same day the transcript of the call between both leaders has been released. There are multiple media outlets streaming the upcoming meeting. Trump and Zelenskyy meet at 2:15pm ET, links below:
Fox News Livestream Link – Fox Business Livestream – CNBC Livestream Link
Good grief, talk about a nothingburger – this phone call is fine. Here’s the transcript of the phone call between President Trump and President Zelenskyy.
[White House] President Donald J. Trump has released a declassified, unredacted transcript of his telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from July 25th, 2019. The transcript can be read HERE.
[scribd id=427409969 key=key-VGm7DyayAPURqtX76cpg mode=scroll]
Last week U.S. economic data included the Labor Department’s report on initial filings for unemployment benefits, at historically low levels. Also last week, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. housing market (new homes and permits) was the strongest since 2007. Then came the Philadelphia Fed’s index of manufacturing business activity in September, more than doubling estimates as factories continue to expand. And if that wasn’t too much winning, the Commerce Department then announced August retail sales growth was double expectations. Main Street USA is very strong.
None of the economic data supports the almost month-long ‘recession narrative’ pushed by financial pundits and media narrative engineers; and next week the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth will be released. Attempting to retain the smallest remaining whiff of credibility, the Bloomberg economists now announce they’re cancelling the recession.
Yes, in a piece titled “Hold That Recession – U.S. Indicators are Trouncing Forecasts“, Bloomberg admits the economy doesn’t match their gloomy narrative:
(Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy is outperforming expectations by the most this year, offering a fresh rebuttal to last month’s resurgent recession fears fueled by the trade war and a manufacturing slump.
The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index has reached an 11-month high after four indicators released Thursday, including existing home sales and jobless claims, each surpassed expectations.
Michael Pillsbury traveled to Hong Kong recently to help explain the goals and objectives of President Trump’s U.S-China trade position. During an interview, Mr. Pillsbury warns Beijing interests not to interpret the current U.S. position as aggressive, because the dragon has yet to see the severe side to Trump’s position.
During an interview with the South China Morning Post, Pillsbury points out there are a great many more ways that President Trump is prepared to respond if the combative trade position from China remains hostile to any concessions. This first option was their best option. However, should they choose further trade conflict, President Trump will happily oblige.
CTH research on Trump’s outlook, vis-a-vis China, has led us to believe there is no upper limit to the economic weapons President Trump is willing to deploy; and considering that Pillsbury can be relied upon to deliver honest, accurate and deliberate remarks about the White House position, these warnings from a close advisor to the President should be weighted accordingly.
(South China Morning Post) – The United States is set to ramp up the pressure on China if a trade deal is not agreed soon, a key White House adviser said, adding that Washington has so far imposed only “low level tariffs” on the Asian giant.
Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal. However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.
Mercedes Stephenson from Global News has done some excellent follow-up coverage on the arrest of RCMP Intelligence Director Cameron Ortis. Mr. Ortis is facing seven serious charges of intelligence violations including obtaining information to pass to a “foreign entity.” The intelligence compromise is the biggest scandal in “a generation”.
New evidence shows the arrest was a result of a 2018 international intelligence operation that targeted the encrypted communications service known as “Phantom Secure”.
A man named Victor Ramos was the CEO of Phantom Secure, an enterprise that provided encrypted communication devices to criminal agents involved in drug smuggling, money laundering and human trafficking.
Ramos was arrested by United States FBI officials in Washington State. Ramos gave the FBI information about intelligence for sale that was coming from a source deep inside the Five-Eyes intelligence apparatus. That information led to RCMP Director Cameron Ortis.
The scale of the compromise is still being analyzed. Ortis was director general of the National Intelligence Coordination Centre in Canada. In essence, Ortis was the Canadian equivalent of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (James Clapper/Dan Coats); and had access to the most sensitive intelligence information amid the entire Five-Eyes network that includes: Canada, The United States, The U.K. Australia and New Zealand.
(more…)
The dance with the dragon is a complex geopolitical relationship between two large economies. China’s view within the dynamic is shaped by their own internal ideology and outlook. The panda mask dynamic was/is strategic and has served them well for decades; but now President Trump -while engaging a structural confrontation- has used the panda strategy against Beiing’s interests. China is flummoxed.
Each of President Trump’s trade team members have a specific role; each member also has a specific opponent within the dance:
♦Peter Navarro is the blue-collar hawk. He focuses on the the administration’s Wall Street adversaries; and the U.S. multinationals -American companies- who have aligned their interests with Beijing. Navarro’s focus is internal to U.S. interests. Navarro confronts U.S. corporations, Wall Street interests, who are working against Main Street.
♦Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin carries the economic financial weapons (represents the dollar), and he faces toward global adversaries (IMF, World Bank, European Central Bank etc.) who have also aligned their interests with Beijing and the status quo.
(more…)
The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.
The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year. These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.
The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)
During an interview with Fox Business Maria Bartiromo White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro outliness how the USPS, the postal system, has been heavily subsidizing “incoming mail of a number of countries to the tune of hundreds of million dollars a year.” Navarro notes he is meeting with foreign ambassadors and representatives of the State Department at the Blair House in Washington, D.C., to work on changes to the current mail system.
Additionally, Navarro explained that he will be traveling to Geneva, Switzerland, on Sept. 23 for a third “Extraordinary Congress” and there will be two issues/options on the ballot: (1) allows all countries in the postal union to self-declare rates, ending a terminal dues system that costs countries to subsidize incoming mail. (2) A “multispeed approach,” allowing the U.S. to self-declare rates immediately.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Thursday an indefinite supply of fresh asset purchases and deeper cuts to interest rates, into negative territory, as it tries to prop up the ailing euro zone economy. These are EU financial counter-measures to the geopolitical trade realignment triggered by U.S. President Trump.
The EU is driving down the value of their currency in an effort to help prop-up the French and German economies that are dependent on exports. In essence, the financial and economic positions of the EU and China are connected. The more pressure the U.S. (Trump administration) puts on China, the less China can purchase from the EU.
With that as the backdrop, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin holds an impromptu press conference outside the White House on China trade, Huawei and the bond market.
