As you know CTH takes a different approach at significant world events. We try to share the untold stories as they shake out, in real time, in granular details not noted by the MSM.  We discuss the stuff on the way to the destination.  That way when we arrive at a ‘way point’ we have a historic reference, a back-story, to comprehend consequential headlines when they happen.
With that in mind, here’s another non-discussed granular detail, spotted recently, building toward a much more significant geopolitical outcome, vis-a-vis Russia.
You might remember on August 4th President Trump and French President Emmanuel had a phone call.  The outline of the phone conversation is HERE, but there was no real reason for them to be chatting…. or was there?
Western media has paid virtually no attention to how Trump’s big picture economic policy enmeshes and bolsters his national security policy.
Quite literally, and I really want to emphasize this, Secretary Mnuchin (Treasury) and Secretary Ross (Commerce) are just as important as Secretary Mattis (Defense) and Secretary Tillerson (State).
Stop and think about that for a minute.
When President Trump went to Saudi Arabia for the Arab Security Summit the two most visibly active cabinet members were Mnuchin and Ross.  When has a Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary ever had as much importance during world security events?
Think about it.
Who was Obama’s Commerce Secretary during Iran negotiations?
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– “Walking in a Winner Wonderland” –

Two years ago CTH began discussing the ramifications to a new emphasis on the economy outlined as a possibility of candidate Donald Trump’s economic policy outlook. Within the overall discussion we walked through the anticipated changes possible if A.) Trump won the election, and B.) Trump began instituting Main Street economic policy ahead of Wall Street policy (the past 20+ years).
We discussed the new dimension that would occur between two economic engines (Main Street -vs- Wall Street) as three decades of federal policy shifted. CTH outlined anticipated economic activity in the space between the two dynamics.

Part of those discussions focused on energy costs (we see them lowering), product costs (we explained how inflation would be weird), and importantly, wage rates. It takes several months of policy emphasis, actual outcomes, before the labor market wage rates would grow. We anticipated seeing that impact in Q1 of Fiscal Year 2018, which is October 1st 2017.
Today the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, “JOLTS report”, begins to show the initial stages of that wage rate increasing trend. The job market has tightened,… considerably. *Note* We are ending fiscal year Q4 (July, Aug, Sept.) and the trend within MAGAnomics is responding according to predictions. For those of us who argued these policy theories for the past two decades, these results are really cool.
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President Trump’s strategic approach using economic leverage to gain U.S. national security has established a very rare victory in the U.N. with unanimous support for Security Council sanctions against North Korea.  Yes, China and Russia supported.
Remember, from Day #1 of his administration President Trump was faced with a threat from N-Korea.  On his departure President Obama told the incoming new President Trump that North Korea would be his #1 Geopolitical national security challenge.
The MSM will likely never give President Trump credit for the remarkable long-term economic strategy he deployed to gain China and Russia’s support today.

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – The United Nations Security Council imposed new sanctions on North Korea on Saturday that could slash by a third the Asian state’s $3 billion annual export revenue over Pyongyang’s two intercontinental ballistic missile tests in July.

The U.S.-drafted resolution bans North Korean exports of coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood. It also prohibits countries from increasing the current numbers of North Korean laborers working abroad, bans new joint ventures with North Korea and any new investment in current joint ventures.

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U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley is structuring a U.N. Security Council resolution toward North Korea by targeting a ban on DPRK exports.  This approach is in line with the larger Trump strategy to leverage economic sanctions as pressure on North Korea to stop advancing military expansion and nuclear weapons.
However, how President Trump has set Nikki Haley up for success on this resolution is something for the history books to write about:

♦First: A review of the possible enhanced sanctions against N-Korea should be incorporated with the larger issue of policy toward the DPRK’s enabler, China.  President Trump, Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary Ross have positioned a severely consequential trade reset between the U.S. and China.  [Trump and Ross delayed an announcement on trade sanctions against China which was scheduled for today.]
♦Second: The enhanced U.S. energy export initiatives, in conjunction with lower oil prices, an outcome of U.S. energy policy and a mutually beneficial relationship between President Trump and Arab states in the GCC, have severely weakened the economic position of Russia.
Russia’s energy export economy is dependent on energy prices remaining high. President Trump has brilliantly worked the geopolitical economic relationships to leverage influence over a large portion of the Russian economy.
Combine these two points and you discover the leverage President Trump’s team has created.
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Earlier today President Donald Trump joined Director of Small Business Administration Linda McMahon and Ivanka Trump for an event discussing administration policy toward supporting U.S. small businesses.

The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the value of all goods and services generated within the U.S. economy over a designated period of time. In the second quarter (April, May, June) the GDP grew at a rate of 2.6%. That’s more than double the first quarters 1.2% growth rate.

President Trump set a goal of 3% GDP growth for the first year of his administration. Reaching 2.6% in the second quarter is significant progress toward the attainment of a goal all economists said was unattainable. Those same nay-sayers are also focused on wage rate growth which they claim is not moving with the economy. They are disconnected.
Again, CTH draws attention to the new modern era in economics. Most analysts and punditry have no historic reference points for a new dimension in U.S. economics; where 30 years of fiscal policy to the benefit of Wall Street has how shifted to the benefit of Main Street. We are now in the space between these two economic engines. Traditional economic review no longer applies.
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Interestingly at the same time as a massive natural gas investment by Petronas collapses in Canada due to energy policy and economic conditions surrounding weak LNG prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration highlights that U.S. coal exports are roaring back.  Yes, elections have real economic consequences.
U.S. EIA data shows a gain of 60.3% so far this year in exports of both steam coal (used to generate electricity) and coking coal (metallurgical coal used for steel manufacturing) as a direct consequence of President Trump’s common sense energy policy.

Interestingly, the largest destinations for the growth in American coal export are the U.K. (+175%) and a doubling of tonnage to both France (+100%), and Asia (+100%).  High transport costs to ship coal to the EU are being offset by U.S. coal manufacturing efficiencies and improvements in mining productivity.
Additionally, while the actual end user for coal shipments to the EU are difficult to track, it is reasonably anticipated that some European countries are preparing to offset their reliance on Russian energy with storage of steam coal for next winters high demand season.
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Finally today we see a significant loss for the “Big Club”. Speaker Paul Ryan, the GOPe professional business class, Wall Street and the U.S. CoC accept the Border Adjustment Tax is not going to be a part of any larger tax reform agenda under the Trump administration.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and President Trump win the policy argument with the removal of the B.A.T.
In a joint statement outlining the forward plans for tax reform the “Big Six” tax negotiators (Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady), announce the consumer punishing BAT will not be included.

[…] “While we have debated the pro-growth benefits of border adjustability, we appreciate that there are many unknowns associated with it and have decided to set this policy aside in order to advance tax reform.” (more)

The B.A.T was to revenue collection on imported products and impact on consumers – what the Obamacare mandate was to revenue collection on healthcare and impact on consumers.
The B.A.T  was simply a scheme to embed the cost of renegotiated trade import tariffs, directly onto the consumer, isolated away from any responsibility on the corporation to reduce their own internal efficiencies as a method to keep the price down. It was a dubious and manipulative effort.
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The White House is unveiling a renewed focus on products ‘Made in America‘.  Understandably those who oppose the overall America-First agenda immediately react to the effort by pointing out many of the Trump branded products are made overseas.   However, many of those detractors miss the larger issue, while simultaneously their antagonistic efforts actually help the messaging campaign.
The larger America-First economic platform, and the ancillary ‘Made-in-America’ message, are targeted toward economic policy; the bigger picture.  The goal is to make national policy reflect a “better option” for companies and manufacturers to produce products in the United States.

As long as the best business model for any company is to outsource manufacturing, that will be the outcome.   The America-First policy objective is to change the underlying policy which in turn changes the business model for companies; making American product manufacturing the more cost effective approach.
The key economic message is always within the “why”?  Why do companies make U.S. market products overseas?  Focus policy on the why, and natural fair market economics will self-correct.
Often those discussing jobs and manufacturing argue the driver of production is “cheap labor”.  However, those making that argument also cite increased “automation” in manufacturing.  These two arguments are mutually exclusive. If modern manufacturing is now heavily automated the ‘cheap labor’ argument holds far less merit.
Today, President Donald J. Trump will host companies from across the country at the White House for the Made in America Product Showcase.
The White House is highlighting and celebrating each state’s effort and commitment to American made products by bringing in and showing off products from all 50 states that are made and produced in the United States.
Attendees include: (more…)

White House Press Briefing – “We’ve received several inquiries on what the President — on his agenda for the past couple of days, so I’d like to read some of that out before I take your questions.”

“He’s had multiple meetings with key economic advisors, particularly on issues of trade, such as Ambassador Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Ross, NEC Director Gary Cohn, and Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, Peter Navarro.”

The only question is the timing. Now or after NAFTA?  It is better to have NAFTA finished prior to the confrontation? …if so, considering DPRK aspect, what is the better strategy in the space between now and the final conflict?
Remember, this battle is two decades past due and waged on behalf of the forgotten men and women of the middle-class. The purchased legislative body within Washington DC will attack our economic efforts with an intensity never before seen in this century or any century.  There are trillions of dollars at stake; this is the epic battle for middle America.
The administrative state will work earnestly to destroy these efforts on behalf of our enemy.  Along with Wall Street, every multinational corporation and multinational banking institution will be against us.
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