There’s always a larger geopolitical dynamic when you assess the economic alliances that President Trump puts together…. Always and underlying plan…  Sometimes it just takes time to surface.
As we have noted, even going back to 2017, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe always appeared to be the fulcrum for President Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy.  

Remember the trip to Japan as honored guests of Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako at the Imperial Palace?  Remember last month’s (May 25th) unprecedented reception with the titans of Japanese business?  Remember the private reception set up by a very nervous U.S. Ambassador William F. Hagerty?  A reception with the most influential business CEO’s in Japan and Southeast Asia? 
Well…

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s Tokyo Electron, the world’s No.3 supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, will not supply to Chinese clients blacklisted by Washington, a senior company executive told Reuters.
The decision shows how Washington’s effort to bar sales of technology to Chinese firms, including Huawei Technologies, is ensnaring non-American firms that are not obliged to follow U.S. law.

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President Trump travels to Iowa today to deliver a policy speech on renewable energy.  The remarks are taking place at Southwest IA Renewable Energy in Council Bluffs, Iowa. Later this evening President Trump will deliver remarks at the Republican Party of Iowa annual dinner.  Start time for the energy speech approximately 4:20pm EST:
UPDATE: Video Added

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White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett squares-off against Fox Business crew on trade tensions with China, the state of the U.S. economy, the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and his upcoming departure from the White House.
Steve Forbes is disconnected from the reality of what happens with tariffs on China. Beijing first responds to off-set the tariff by lowering the value of their currency, and/or subsidizing the targeted products. There is no price increase to U.S. consumers (check inflation).

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Apparently President Trump was watching the segment, and had a word for Maria Bartiromo, Dagan McDowell, Steve Forbes and Stuart Varney:
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Do not overlook the importance of President Donald Trump publicly calling out the largest DC lobbyist group, and epicenter of Big Club corruption earlier today.  During a widely discussed CNBC interview today President Trump landed two torpedoes directly below the waterline on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

The U.S. CoC is the largest influence purchaser in Washington DC, and the benefactor of dozens of the highest politicians in both the House and Senate.  The Wall Street funded CoC, and their President Tom Donohue, was already frustrated at their inability to influence President Trump and White House economic/trade policy.  President Trump is now confronting their self-serving politics directly.
The CoC is the lead U.S. member of the multinational ‘Big Club’, and has driven policies directly against Main Street USA for three decades.  Until now no modern U.S. President has ever been willing, or fearless enough, to take them on…. ‘until now’.  A few days ago the U.S. CoC threatened to sue President Trump over countervailing tariffs.
Today, President Trump hit back hard; this is an excellent development.
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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, aka “JOLTS report“, lags behind monthly employment reports by a month as the ‘hires‘ and ‘quits‘ are contrast against available job openings.
In the latest JOLTS report we find evidence why the May employment numbers were less than expected. The data shows the economy is expanding; businesses are hiring; and the reason for lower new hires has nothing to do with an economic slow-down. In essence, the labor market is tight, very tight, and Main Street businesses are having a hard time finding qualified workers.

According to the BLS stats overall job hiring in April was 5.9 million. That’s the largest number of people hired in the history of the JOLTS record-keeping (started in 2000). There are 7.45 million current job openings and only 5.82 million workers identified as unemployed. That means there are 1.63 million more jobs than available workers.
This is a clear indication expanding economic conditions and a near ‘full-employment‘ position for the overall labor market. Additionally the quits rate is 2.3 percent, reflecting that workers are: (a) being recruited away from current employment to jump to other businesses; and (b) worker are confident about getting a job, and jumping into new jobs for higher wages/benefits. As a result, the strong ‘quits’ rate has historically been a precursor KPI for future wage growth stats.
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Earlier this morning President Donald Trump called in to CNBC to discuss a variety of subjects including: the ongoing trade negotiations with China; the threat of tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration; the federal reserve; the status of the economy; the duplicity of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; collusion by democrats; the upcoming G20 summit in Japan, and much, much, more.
During the interview President Trump directly calls out the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for their anti-American position and self-interested advocacy for Wall Street multinational corporations. Additionally, President Trump pushes back against the claim that tariffs lead to higher U.S. prices, citing examples of China subsidizing their exports and low U.S. inflation.  Must Watch:

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(LOL… POTUS Trump chomping-at-the-bit to get tariffs on the EU.)

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Former White House China trade negotiator Clete Willems makes a rare appearance to discuss President Trump’s ongoing trade position with China; and the lessons they are learning from Trump’s severity with Mexico.
Fox News talking-hair Leland Vitter, a prime example of the axiom: “a little knowledge is dangerous”, tries his best to promote the preferred Murdoch points; however, Vitter finds himself struggling against the weight of the examples highlighted by Mr. Willems. Quite funny actually:

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Worth noting: President Trump spoke with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) yesterday (See Tweets Below).
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Appearing on Fox News Sunday acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan discusses the approach by President Trump to impose import tariffs on Mexico if the administration of President Lopez-Obrador does not fulfill their pledge.
Along with outlining the Mexican agreement, McAleenan notes President Trump is absolutely willing to impose the tariffs on Mexico if there is no substantive and immediate improvement to stem the flow of Central American migrants.

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The border and migration “agreement” with Mexico is a smart move by President Trump. If you worry that Mexico won’t take any action, well, don’t underestimate the dynamic President Trump just put into play.
Financial investment flows based on expectation, probability and risk management. If you don’t think Mexico will follow-up with their end of the bargain; then you are predicting the tariffs will reappear in 90-days.

Overlooked by most of the financial pundits President Trump has pre-positioned risk management actuaries with the basis for their analysis and internal investment advice. In a similar move last year, President Trump suspended tariffs against China based on an agreement (G20 summit in Argentina). After several months and a 150 page initial agreement of principle, China walked away from their prior promises and  terms.  The tariffs against China were immediately implemented at the previous rate.
That China example with tariffs is now the baseline for all multinational investment to consider as they review their current exposure in Mexico. If any financial investor (bank or corporation) believes Mexico will not adhere to the border/migration agreement, then by extension they are accepting/predicting the Mexican tariffs will take effect in 90-days.
Put another way… President Trump has just given notice to all global business interests to organize their financial affairs toward Mexico within 90 days.
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UPDATE: U.S-Mexico Joint Statement Added at bottom:
President Trump tweets that a signed deal has been reached between the U.S. and Mexico to stop the unlawful Central American migration that has created a crisis at the border:

According to the president details will come from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who, along with VP Mike Pence and Secretary Wilbur Ross, was central to the U.S. negotiating team.
The Mexican government of Lopez-Obrador was desperate to reach an agreement as U.S. companies had already begun rapid supply chain preparation to avoid the tariffs scheduled to begin on Monday. Think about the scale of international investment into Mexico, done with the sole purpose of gaining access to the U.S. market.
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