The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), who track GDP  -and-  U.S. Labor Department (DoL) Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), who track wage growth, have released the initial sets of analysis for Quarter 1 of this year (Jan-March).   The first quarter growth in GDP comes in at 2.3%.  [Most estimates initially expected 2.0% or slightly less.]

CBS – […] It’s common for economic growth to slow in the first quarter and then accelerate later in the year. Still, the January-March increase was better than expected: Economists had foreseen a 2 percent annualized rate. In the current quarter, economists expect growth to surpass 3 percent.

The 2.3% first quarter result puts 2018 on track to achieve President Trump’s targeted growth rate: over three percent combined growth for the full year.   Due to seasonal fluctuations the first quarter is historically the weakest for GDP growth.  The second quarter will likely rebound well above 3.5% as the historic Q1 -vs- Q2 trend shows above.

(more…)

President Donald Trump will be holding a joint press conference today with the chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel.  Anticipated start time 1:50pm EST

UPDATE: Video Added

(more…)

An interesting discussion this morning on CNBC with White House economic adviser  Larry Kudlow beings to highlight the principal purpose of his forte’.

President Trump is the first U.S. president who came to the table of economic policy with a plan of action that is uniquely his own.  POTUS doesn’t need “advisers” to frame possible policy, he already has the program mapped out; POTUS needs ‘advisers” who are not actually “advisers” per se’ but rather a sales-force to explain and advance his program agenda to the world markets as the policies are implemented….

.

…Because this is such a substantial shift from historic reference, President Trump’s unique position of actually creating the economic policy must be emphasized and continually repeated.  It’s not Kudlow creating the policy; these are President Trump’s policies.  The granular details are carried out by U.S.T.R Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Ross, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

(more…)

On June 29th, 2017, CTH drew attention to the advanced U.S. energy policy as it was being announced, and the media avoided coverage.  At the time our headline was: “Stratospheric in Consequence – Trump Policy: Unleashing American Energy Independence”.

The bottom-line was simple.  It was clearly visible that POTUS Trump had a plan to unleash the U.S. energy sector as part a much larger larger economic and national security strategy.  The concept was so radical, and the potential ramifications so consequential, it was stunning how no financial media were putting the dots together.

Trump’s geopolitical energy strategy actually underpinned the national security interests with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.  Additionally, the same energy policy was one of the four corners of the MAGAnomic trade policy; currently becoming more visible.

Check out today’s headline from Reuters, and think about how outside-the-box thinking has brought about these results:

(Tweet Link – Article Link)

From the article: MOSCOW/LONDON (Reuters) – As OPEC’s efforts to balance the oil market bear fruit, U.S. producers are reaping the benefits – and flooding Europe with a record amount of crude.

Russia paired with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last year in cutting oil output jointly by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), a deal they say has largely rebalanced the market and one that has helped elevate benchmark Brent prices close to four-year highs.

(more…)

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and the trade ministers from Canada and Mexico are not in Washington DC this weekend; however the trade staff from all three nations stayed in DC working to finalize agreement on NAFTA with increased urgency.

The nation pushing hardest to complete an agreement quickly is Mexico.  The Mexican national election is July 1st and the soft-Marxist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AM LO) has increased his lead.  AM LO is now 22 points ahead of his next closest competitor. Lopez Obrador, a self-described Hugo Chavez ideologue, is guaranteed to win – and Mexico will become Venezuela 2.0 within five years.

The looming Mexican election, and the radical political departure therein, means if a deal is not made soon, there will be no deal.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will likely nationalize large segments of the Mexican economy for more progressive wealth distribution…. Enter, quickly, and with a transparency in their desperation, the multinational corporations who have already invested hundreds of billions into Mexican ports, transportation infrastructure, raw material procurement contracts, manufacturing/processing and assembly facilities, and all around exploitation of NAFTA as a tariff-free, profit-driven, back-door to the U.S market…

Yes, as oft repeated, there are trillions at stake.

(more…)

In the past 48 hours South Korea (Moon Jae-in) and North Korea (Kim Jong-un) have been working out the details of their upcoming summit.  Within the discussions between North and South Korea some stunning news has surfaced.

♦ Yesterday Moon Jae-in announced that North Korea had agreed to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula without any preconditions or expectations of changes in the relationship between the U.S. and South Korea:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea has expressed its commitment to “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula and is not seeking conditions, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Thursday, as the United States vowed to maintain “maximum pressure” on Pyongyang.

[…] “I don’t think denuclearization has different meanings for South and North Korea,” Moon said during a lunch with chief executives of Korean media companies. “The North is expressing a will for a complete denuclearization.”

“They have not attached any conditions that the U.S. cannot accept, such as the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea,” he continued. “All they are talking about is the end of hostile policies against North Korea, followed by a guarantee of security.”  (read more)

As the summit discussions continued today; and to assure the previous U.S. envoy CIA Director Mike Pompeto; and in affirmation of direct talks with President Trump; North Korea made an even more stunning statement from the Korean Central News Agency:

(more…)

Trade Representatives from Canada, Mexico and the U.S. are in the deepest weeds within NAFTA negotiations, and some of the current proposals are flat out nuts.

Within the auto-sector the “Rules of Origin” continue to be one of the biggest sticking points.  The U.S. position is that 80% or more of a vehicle made in the U.S., Mexico or Canada should be made from parts from the U.S., Mexico or Canada, ie. North America.  Canada and Mexico are trying to argue for lower North American content because they want more Asian/Chinese parts in American automobiles. [Reuters Link]

On its face their position is ridiculous.  Canada and Mexico are not arguing for more Canadian and Mexican content; they are arguing for more Chinese content.  The U.S. is arguing for more North American content.  Canada and Mexico want to support China’s economy; the U.S. wants to support Canada, Mexico and the U.S. economy.   Let that sink in for a moment.

In an effort to enhance their ridiculous position, Canada and Mexico have come up with a proposal that is, well, bananas. Can/Mex want the United States to tax vehicles made in Canada and Mexico.  Stop. Re-read that.  Yes, that is correct.  Canada and Mexico want Chinese parts so badly, they are arguing for the U.S. to tax American (NAFTA) automobiles.

Nuts.

(more…)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump hold a joint press conference at the end of their two-day bilateral summit in Mar-a-Lago. Anticipated start time 6:15pm EST

UPDATE: Video Added

(more…)

After a round of golf together earlier today President Trump joins with Vice President Mike Pence to host Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his delegation for a working lunch between close allies.  Japan is well positioned for a golden-trade-ticket. A joint press conference will follow later in the day.

(more…)

Allow me to introduce:”SUPER-MAGA-NAFTA-WINNING“

This Reuters article is framed around Mexico making a surprise announcement they will support the U.S. steel tariff against China by shutting down the NAFTA back door on that specific trade segment….  However, the bigger story is Mexico’s admission/concession to the U.S. trade position that Canada and Mexico structure access to the U.S. market inside their trade deals with other nations.

With a Marxist about to win the July 1st election; and with certain nationalization of private industry soon to follow; and with free capital markets anticipating and responding by shifting investment into the U.S.; Mexico proposes to close the fatal flaw in NAFTA.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – The ministers leading the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) could meet again on Thursday in Washington as they push for quick progress, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Monday.

Guajardo said he had spoken to Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday and would talk to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Tuesday to see about agreeing a trilateral meeting in Washington on Thursday.

(more…)