One of the reasons CTH writes about economic matters because constructing economic prediction theories based around political policy is a hobby of mine.  Within obscure data, raw and unfiltered up-stream activity, it is entirely possible to see over the horizon.

But newly engaged people also think I’m nuts; so therefore it is also fun conversation at parties to stand above the esoteric academic fray, smile and outline actual forecasts –very specific forecasts– that most would never consider possible from a linear perspective.

People pay a boat-load of money for proprietary ownership of very accurate forecasts.  However, CTH would rather do it open source and break the historic grip of the financial control class.

If you’ll permit me a little Funday indulgence; the other reason to share predictable consequences is so patriotic readers can take a pro-active and empowering position in their own decision-making.  That motive was one of the reasons for previously sharing:

[…]  Until the two economies gain parity – any fed activity, taken as a consequence to their familiar traditional measurements (interest rates etc.), will have minimal to negligible impact on Main Street.

• Regional areas which benefited from high yield and high rates of return from Wall Street, ie. investment benefactors, will begin economic contraction. The downstream effect on state finances, and the retail and high-end service industry will also be negatively impacted.

• However, industrial areas/middle-class areas, with affordable housing and reasonable infrastructure, which have suffered in the past 20+ years, will see home values increasing as the local economy expands.

National policy (Trump Policy) which benefits Main Street also benefits local economics which are founded in manufacturing, production, and ancillary services.  In essence, the Middle-Class.

Those who benefited from high-yield international investment income will see less income.  Those who live on savings will see a moderate benefit.  However, those living day-to-day and week-to-week on their paychecks will see much more income.  Believe it. (link)

Now check out this headline from AP today discussing Connecticut:

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Are people beginning to catch on? Are people beginning to identify the long-ball strategy of a non-traditional approach toward geo-political alliances?

Apparently, some are – because North Korea is not happy with the heavy pressure coming from Big Panda, China.  As identified within this radio interview between Dr. Gorka and Brian Kilmeade…

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I don’t want to say, I told you so… but:

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Earlier we shared the remarks by Secretary Rex Tillerson as he opened a U.N. Ministerial Session on North Korea’s nuclear ambition. However, what we were unable to find was video of the closing remarks.

The closing remarks by T-Rex were intensely direct. The video is available on the State Department Website HERE. (w/ Transcript Below)  There are some critical forward policy points outlined in the T-Rex closing.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I shall now make a further statement in my capacity as Secretary of State of the United States.

First, I appreciate all of the statements that have been made by you, and I have received those statements in the constructive spirit in which I know they’ve been offered. I also want to acknowledge the presence of a large number of ambassadors with us today. Your presence gives strength to the importance of this issue. It is a visible demonstration of the importance of this issue to the international community, and I welcome you, and I appreciate you being here.

It has been stressed repeatedly in many of your statements today North Korea has failed to honor its commitments of the past. It has made promises which it has broken. Had this body fully enforced and stood behind resolutions it had enacted in the past, vigorously enforcing sanctions with full compliance, perhaps we would not have found ourselves confronted with the high level of tension that we face today.

We will not negotiate our way back to the negotiating table with North Korea. We will not reward their violations of past resolutions. We will not reward their bad behavior with talks. We will only engage in talks with North Korea when they exhibit a good-faith commitment to abiding by the Security Council resolutions and their past promises to end their nuclear programs.

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{{snickering}} Well, who didn’t see this coming?…

(New York Post) President Trump spoke by phone Saturday with Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte — praising the strongman for “fighting very hard to rid his country of drugs” and inviting him to Washington.

The two leaders also discussed regional security, including concerns over South Korea, the White House said in a statement.

No details were given on when Duterte would visit the US, but Trump also said he looked forward to visiting the Philippines in November for a summit with other Asian nations. (link)

As we shared five days ago – this is all part of a much, much bigger strategy.  Full explainer about how President Duterte fits in AVAILABLE HERE.  The insufferable media can’t even see it…. their intellectual dishonesty is becoming very annoying.

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Chinese government officials returned a Texas businesswoman, Ms. Phan-Gillis, to the United States just days after convicting her of espionage charges:

WASHINGTON – […] Phan-Gillis was arrested in 2015 on charges of having spied for the United States in 1996. The Obama administration and United Nations condemned the arrest as a case of “arbitrary detention,” but Chinese authorities proceeded with a case against her that culminated in her receiving a three-and-a-half-year prison sentence on Tuesday. Within days, however, she was returned unexpectedly home — deported, rather than being required to serve her sentence.

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The missile self-destructed after several minutes. It is reported to have exploded over the North Korean peninsular.

(Via Reuters) North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile on Saturday from a region north of its capital, but it appears to have failed, South Korea’s military said, defying intense pressure from the United States and the reclusive state’s main ally, China.

An official at South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed the launch but did not immediately have any further information. Yonhap news agency said the missile appeared to have blown up a few seconds into flight.

The test came as U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned the United Nations that failure to curb North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs could lead to ‘catastrophic consequences’.

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U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson traveled to New York Friday to discuss the ongoing threats by North Korea with the United Nations Security Council.   Secretary Tillerson urged all member nations to act “before North Korea does.”

[TRANSCRIPT] – SECRETARY TILLERSON: Thank you, Secretary General, for that most helpful briefing. I shall now make a statement in my capacity as Secretary of State of the United States, and I thank you for the opportunity to address the Security Council.

According to UN Security Council Resolution 2321, a stated objective of this council is North Korea’s abandonment of its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

For the past 20 years, well-intentioned diplomatic efforts to halt these programs have failed. It is only by first dismantling them that there can be peace, stability, and economic prosperity for all of Northeast Asia.

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Interesting oval office interview in Reuters. President Trump, Vice-President Pence and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have invested an extraordinary amount of time engaging in deep diplomacy, and clarity of discussion, with every regional member affected by the North Korea nuclear issues. 

I still believe the Giant Panda will never allow Kim Jong Un to compromise the stability of the region.  The only previously missing ingredient for China to engage more fully was respect from the U.S. toward their interests.  If North Korea go rogue, and they might, China will suffer most in the aftermath because all leverage will be gone and respect from the Trump White House will be compromised. 

Regardless of what happens, President Trump has covered every possible angle, held every possible conversation and exhausted every possible diplomatic tool possible.

REUTERS – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a major conflict with North Korea is possible in the standoff over its nuclear and missile programs, but he would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute.

“There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely,” Trump told Reuters in an Oval Office interview ahead of his 100th day in office on Saturday.

Nonetheless, Trump said he wanted to peacefully resolve a crisis that has bedeviled multiple U.S. presidents, a path that he and his administration are emphasizing by preparing a variety of new economic sanctions while not taking the military option off the table.

“We’d love to solve things diplomatically but it’s very difficult,” he said.

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An important and exceptional interview today with Fox News Brett Baier and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.  The diplomatic schedule for T-Rex over the next 36 hours is simply jaw-dropping in scope as he heads to New York to deliver personal remarks to the United Nations Security Council and hold bi-lateral sideline briefings with member delegations.

In advance of execution of the a schedule planned for months, T-Rex sits down with Brett Baier and discusses what the long-term goals of the U.S. administration are, and how the developed partnerships are now aligned to produce a diplomatic outcome.

This is not only an important interview, it is a GREAT interview. Man, are we in good hands here or what.

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Secretary T-Rex is ALL THAT and a bag o’ diplomatic chips. Buckets of awesome.  Transcript below

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It was only a few months ago when congressional democrat leadership were clutching their pearls because President-elect Trump held a phone call with the political leadership of Taiwan.  House and Senate Democrats rose to defend the honor of China around the precept of the Obama administrations’ acquiescence to the “one china” policy, and Trump’s audacity to call it into question.

Then something weird happened.

President Trump took office January 20th, and after many diplomatic contacts within the administration and their Chinese counterparts, President Trump and President Xi Jinping began to formulate a friendship.

April 5th/6th President Trump and President Xi Jinping met in Mar-a-lago for two days and the outcome has been historic and stunning cooperation between the U.S. and China.  China began pressuring North Korea to stop the military drum-beating. (more…)