White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow on the U.S.-China trade talks where recontact has been established and now officially restarted. As noted, President Trump is in no hurry; the status-quo is leverage in our favor.
Additionally Director Kudlow discusses the potential benefits of the USMCA trade deal and whether the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates.

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Regarding “inflation” these pundits just don’t get it.  For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy would reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) consistently confirms our earlier predictions releasing data where inflation is essentially nonexistent.
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Earlier today President Donald Trump welcomed Amir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani from Qatar to the White House. Qatar came under considerable scrutiny from President Trump as part of the 2017 mid-east alliance due to their connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, terrorist financing, and regional issues in conflict with Saudi and Egyptian allies.
When President Trump formed the mid-east coalition, & referencing extremist elements, said: “drive them out”, the target audience was Qatar. [Video and Transcript below]

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[Transcript] PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s a great honor to be with the Amir of Qatar — a highly respected man, a real leader in a large part of the world and a very important part of the world. And we’ve known each other a long time. We’ve been friends for a long time.
And we’re doing a lot of work now. They’re investing very heavily in our country. They’re creating a lot of jobs. They’re buying tremendous amounts of military equipment, including planes. And they’re buying commercial planes, as you know — very large numbers of commercial planes from Boeing. And we very much appreciate it.
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Gordon Chang appears on Fox News with Charles Payne (filling in for Bartiromo) to discuss the downstream consequences from the G20 meeting between President Trump and Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping.
While he generally frames the picture accurately, lately Chang has been hit or miss.  He accurately outlines how a win/win trade deal is not possible from the perspective of Beijing and their zero-sum outlook; however, he misses on the issues around Huawei; misses the entire hostage dynamic with Kim Jong Un; and then hits again on Hong Kong.

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♦ On China President Trump appears to be working on a complete and total decoupling from the U.S. However, there are steps required in the interim that are in flux (EU and USMCA). Once those matters are resolved we will likely see the decoupling.
♦ On North Korea, just because DPRK state media spouts something doesn’t mean Kim Jong-Un has any control over it.  Beijing has majority influence over DPRK officials.
♦ On Hong Kong, after the Kim hostage rescue; and while the China decoupling is underway; we can expect Hong Kong to be a larger part of Trump’s Indo-Pacific initiative.
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Before President Trump and Chairman Xi Jinping met in Osaka at the G20, Beijing requested the removal of current tariffs as a contingency for a Trump-Xi meeting.  The tariffs are causing two issues: (1) China is bleeding cash via subsidies to offset the tariffs and retain export position; (2) ancillary manufacturing companies are exiting China to avoid tariffs into the U.S. market.
Understanding how the static dynamic -he intentionally created- was favorable to the U.S., President Trump reasserted that current tariffs were not going to be removed.

After the Osaka meeting, President Trump and Chairman Xi agreed to re-open talks between the two teams with no new tariffs; however, as stated before the G20 summit the preexisting tariffs would remain.
Beijing is increasingly recognizing how the current status is disfavorable to their economy; and asserting that no further trade talks can take place until the U.S. promises to remove all tariffs as part of a completed agreement.

(SCMP) China has insisted that all tariffs on Chinese imports added by the United States during the trade war must be scrapped immediately as part of any deal to end the year-long conflict, which would require the Trump administration to give up its position that some levies remain in place even after an agreement is reached.

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Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  Earlier today President Trump stopped to deliver remarks and answer questions from the assembled media prior to boarding Marine-One.
There is a ton of updated current event information in this chopper presser. [July 4th, Economics, Fed, China, Biden, Wilbur Ross, Census, G20, Trade Deals, etc.]  The full transcript is below the video.

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[Transcript]  THE PRESIDENT: That’s a great crowd of people. We had a phenomenal crowd last night, and it was a fantastic evening for our country. You’re going to have a lot of people being recruited, I think, based on that. We’re going to have a lot of — a lot of people joining our military. And we really needed that.
Our job numbers are so good that the military has a hard time getting people. And I think, really, that you’re going to see a big spike. I’ve already heard it — a lot of people calling in. No place like our military. I think we showed that last night.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News to discuss the June jobs report, current Federal Reserve policy, the Trump administration’s trade negotiations with China and former Reagan Economist Art Laffer receiving the Medal of Freedom.
On the China front there’s a weird, seemingly disconnected, dynamic appearing at the surface level within China.  The position of Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice-Premier Liu He seems unusually separated from Beijing messaging (more on that later). Here’s Kudlow:

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Apparently the rumors of our economic demise were greatly exaggerated.  Yes, amid the gnashing teeth of the Wall Street pundits hoping for another lucrative Fed rate decrease, the Main Street economy continues to defy expectations:

“Today’s jobs report shows the U.S. economy continues to create jobs at a strong pace even as we enter the longest period of economic expansion on record.” ~Tony Bedikian, Citizens Bank.

According to the BLS Report – June saw 224,000 jobs added; and importantly the private sector wage growth knocks a very solid +3.2% year-over-year. [Table B-8]  You might remember in the May 2019 jobs report 299,000 people moved from Part-Time to Full-Time employment.  In today’s report total payrolls added another 224,000 workers.

These are stunningly numbers.  The 224k new jobs this month is higher than same month last year (2018).  The Main Street economy is continuing to expand.  Private sector growth in wages continues to run above 3% for the 11th straight month.   Wage Growth is a critical driver because over inflation is around 1.3%. Wage growth is more than double inflation.
Key Point: Economic numbers, statistics, are subject to narrative engineering.  Those pushing a negative economic narrative are Wall Street pundits.  Wall St. has a self-interest to push negative economic news to get lower interest rates.  Lower interest rates means cheap money and a higher stock market.
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Excellent news from White House manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro as he discusses the re-engagement in U.S. and China trade discussions. Great INFO.
You won’t see this interview highlighted by MSM.  As we anticipated the prior 150 page agreement negotiated by USTR Robert Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He, previously dismissed by Beijing after three months of intense discussions, is now the starting point for new talks.  This means the Chinese have acquiesced to the prior terms they rebuked.
The seven chapters, each assigned to a specific trade sector, are the baseline for Lighthizer and Liu He to re-engage.  Excellent news from the position of the U.S. team.

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The CNBC knucklehead injecting about a Hauwei compromise was quickly corrected by Navarro. The Commerce Department restrictions and process for 90-day licenses to do business with Hauwei remains unchanged.
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Many Democrat presidential candidates will be traveling to Iowa for July 4th events as part of their campaign effort.  Interestingly, according to the recent updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Iowa has some of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation:

(Waterloo Iowa Headline Link)

Iowa has three of the top five lowest unemployment regions in the nation:

(BLS DATA) In May, Ames, IA, and Burlington-South Burlington, VT, had the lowest unemployment rates, 1.5 percent each, followed by Midland, TX, 1.7 percent; Iowa City, IA, 1.8 percent; and Dubuque, IA, 1.9 percent.

While Democrats have falsely been saying the economy isn’t working for all Americans, the facts are that blue-collar middle-class Americans have been the largest beneficiaries.
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Today, July 1st, is the first day of the third quarter 2019.  As typical some of the earliest economic reporting from June is released.  One of the first reports comes from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) as they compile the manufacturing sector.

As noted in the ISM review, manufacturing growth remains strong with an overall index of 51.7 (anything above 50 is growth), and the results are stronger than initially predicted by the financial media (Wall Street).
The manufacturing production index for June is 54.1 versus last month’s 51.3 (May); generally this means manufacturing outputs are growing, order backlogs are being reduced, orders are being fulfilled faster.  This is an indication that new production investment is now coming on-line and delivering actual products from orders.
In the past CTH had noted the heavy Main Street investment which began in 2017 would start to come on-line in Q2 2019, it generally takes about two years for a new manufacturing facility to start producing, and then increases in production efficiency follow.  The ISM result shows we were pretty close with that forecast.
Within the review there are particular notes for additional interest.  First, the June manufacturing employment index is 54.5, very strong; (last month 53.7).  In essence manufacturers are hiring at a fast rate.  One cause is better weather (seasonal), and the majority cause is filling the jobs from new production facilities coming on-line.
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