The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), who track GDP  -and-  U.S. Labor Department (DoL) Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), who track wage growth, have released the initial sets of analysis for Quarter 1 of this year (Jan-March).   The first quarter growth in GDP comes in at 2.3%.  [Most estimates initially expected 2.0% or slightly less.]

CBS – […] It’s common for economic growth to slow in the first quarter and then accelerate later in the year. Still, the January-March increase was better than expected: Economists had foreseen a 2 percent annualized rate. In the current quarter, economists expect growth to surpass 3 percent.

The 2.3% first quarter result puts 2018 on track to achieve President Trump’s targeted growth rate: over three percent combined growth for the full year.   Due to seasonal fluctuations the first quarter is historically the weakest for GDP growth.  The second quarter will likely rebound well above 3.5% as the historic Q1 -vs- Q2 trend shows above.

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An interesting discussion this morning on CNBC with White House economic adviser  Larry Kudlow beings to highlight the principal purpose of his forte’.

President Trump is the first U.S. president who came to the table of economic policy with a plan of action that is uniquely his own.  POTUS doesn’t need “advisers” to frame possible policy, he already has the program mapped out; POTUS needs ‘advisers” who are not actually “advisers” per se’ but rather a sales-force to explain and advance his program agenda to the world markets as the policies are implemented….

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…Because this is such a substantial shift from historic reference, President Trump’s unique position of actually creating the economic policy must be emphasized and continually repeated.  It’s not Kudlow creating the policy; these are President Trump’s policies.  The granular details are carried out by U.S.T.R Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Ross, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

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U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and the trade ministers from Canada and Mexico are not in Washington DC this weekend; however the trade staff from all three nations stayed in DC working to finalize agreement on NAFTA with increased urgency.

The nation pushing hardest to complete an agreement quickly is Mexico.  The Mexican national election is July 1st and the soft-Marxist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AM LO) has increased his lead.  AM LO is now 22 points ahead of his next closest competitor. Lopez Obrador, a self-described Hugo Chavez ideologue, is guaranteed to win – and Mexico will become Venezuela 2.0 within five years.

The looming Mexican election, and the radical political departure therein, means if a deal is not made soon, there will be no deal.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will likely nationalize large segments of the Mexican economy for more progressive wealth distribution…. Enter, quickly, and with a transparency in their desperation, the multinational corporations who have already invested hundreds of billions into Mexican ports, transportation infrastructure, raw material procurement contracts, manufacturing/processing and assembly facilities, and all around exploitation of NAFTA as a tariff-free, profit-driven, back-door to the U.S market…

Yes, as oft repeated, there are trillions at stake.

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Trade Representatives from Canada, Mexico and the U.S. are in the deepest weeds within NAFTA negotiations, and some of the current proposals are flat out nuts.

Within the auto-sector the “Rules of Origin” continue to be one of the biggest sticking points.  The U.S. position is that 80% or more of a vehicle made in the U.S., Mexico or Canada should be made from parts from the U.S., Mexico or Canada, ie. North America.  Canada and Mexico are trying to argue for lower North American content because they want more Asian/Chinese parts in American automobiles. [Reuters Link]

On its face their position is ridiculous.  Canada and Mexico are not arguing for more Canadian and Mexican content; they are arguing for more Chinese content.  The U.S. is arguing for more North American content.  Canada and Mexico want to support China’s economy; the U.S. wants to support Canada, Mexico and the U.S. economy.   Let that sink in for a moment.

In an effort to enhance their ridiculous position, Canada and Mexico have come up with a proposal that is, well, bananas. Can/Mex want the United States to tax vehicles made in Canada and Mexico.  Stop. Re-read that.  Yes, that is correct.  Canada and Mexico want Chinese parts so badly, they are arguing for the U.S. to tax American (NAFTA) automobiles.

Nuts.

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Video from last night’s dinner with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Lady Akie Abe, President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump.

It is not unusual for the Abe family and Trump family to drop formality and use informal terms/guestures during their meetings. The relationship between both families -including their children and grandchildren- extends well beyond the realm of politics; they are close personal friends.

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Allow me to introduce:”SUPER-MAGA-NAFTA-WINNING“

This Reuters article is framed around Mexico making a surprise announcement they will support the U.S. steel tariff against China by shutting down the NAFTA back door on that specific trade segment….  However, the bigger story is Mexico’s admission/concession to the U.S. trade position that Canada and Mexico structure access to the U.S. market inside their trade deals with other nations.

With a Marxist about to win the July 1st election; and with certain nationalization of private industry soon to follow; and with free capital markets anticipating and responding by shifting investment into the U.S.; Mexico proposes to close the fatal flaw in NAFTA.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – The ministers leading the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) could meet again on Thursday in Washington as they push for quick progress, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Monday.

Guajardo said he had spoken to Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday and would talk to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Tuesday to see about agreeing a trilateral meeting in Washington on Thursday.

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As expected, China is starting to realize they underestimated the severity of President Trump’s three-decade-long perspective on trade.

Against the backdrop of $150 billion in looming U.S. trade tariffs, Beijing sends an economic emissary to Europe attempting to restructure international trade agreements.

(Reuters) China’s international trade representative held a series of meetings with the ambassadors from major European nations last week to ask them to stand together with Beijing against U.S. protectionism, according to four sources familiar with the discussions.

Some of the western diplomats involved in the meetings with Fu Ziying, who is also a vice-commerce minister, have viewed the approaches as a sign of how anxious Beijing is getting about the expanding conflict with Washington, the sources said.

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White House Press Briefing by National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and National Security Council Senior Director for Asian Affairs Matthew Pottinger. Today’s briefing is happening during a Presidential summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Kudlow is discussing the trade and economic issues; Pottinger is discussing national security issues surrounding negotiations with North Korea.  As Secretary Ross has stated frequently: “Economic Security is National Security.”

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[Transcript] West Palm Beach, Florida – 12:20 P.M. EDT – MR. KUDLOW: I’ll just say to start, before we take some questions, this is a very important meeting. A lot of really key issues are on the line. You obviously know about the foreign policy side regarding North Korea, which is a major, major issue for Japan and for the United States.

On the economic and trade side, there will also be very important issues. Japan is a great friend and ally. We have certain disagreements with respect to some of the trading issues. We’ll iron those out, hopefully.

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The Eagle and the Arrow – An Aesop’s Fable

An Eagle was soaring through the air. Suddenly it heard the whizz of an Arrow, and felt the dart pierce its breast. Slowly it fluttered down to earth. Its lifeblood pouring out. Looking at the Arrow with which it had been shot, the Eagle realized that the deadly shaft had been feathered with one of its own plumes.

Moral: We often give our enemies the means for our own destruction.

The United States economy is the Eagle; the shaft is Wall Street; the feather is the U.S. middle-class, and the archer is U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue.

Need proof?  Please, don’t take my word for it, read:

Tom Donohue: Tonight feels like a gathering of old friends. Five years ago, I had the pleasure of being in this beautiful city to help start a hemispheric business dialogue, and I’m pleased to be back in Lima for this year’s CEO Summit of the Americas.

[…] I also want to talk a little about the priorities within our government. Because, as everyone knows, many of the policy decisions coming out of Washington today not only impact the U.S. economy and its businesses and workers, but indeed those across this hemisphere and around the world.

[…] The Chamber has helped lead the fight to protect the status of more than one million people who are at risk of deportation. It makes no sense to send one million talented workers back to their home countries when we don’t have enough labor to get the job done in our own. This includes the young men and women who were brought to our country as children through no fault of their own—known as “the Dreamers”—as well as hundreds of thousands of individuals who are working in the U.S. under temporary protected status.

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While necessarily needing to continue the gamesmanship, and publicly exhibit positive reception therein, I doubt seriously President Trump is fooled by this familiar Chinese ploy. Actions speak louder than words:

BOAO/BEIJING, China (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping promised on Tuesday to open the country’s economy further and lower import tariffs on products like cars, in a speech seen as an attempt to defuse an escalating trade dispute with the United States.

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