By today the closure of dine-in restaurants should be in full swing across almost all areas. Understandably there’s going to be an operational lag as many of those restaurants don’t have the systems or equipment in place for exclusive take-out or pick-up services (ie. carry-out containers); though hopefully many are responding quickly to the changes.

The upstream consequence of the restaurant disruption is going to be even more pressure on grocery outlets already seeing additional traffic. Many people now shifting from meals “outside the home”, back to the more traditional “home-cooked” meals etc. Which brings up the question of the retail supermarket capacity to meet that extra demand.

This coronavirus event is like a nationwide pre-Hurricane shopping experience.

There have been numerous reports of wide-scale shortages in retail food markets. On the positive side this experienced supply chain has the ability to scale-up very fast (depending on region). However, on a national scale this is the first time the entire country has needed this level of increased retail food distribution simultaneously. To cope with the volume most stores appear to have reduced their hours of operation.

(more…)

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses what economic options the U.S. government has to mitigate and assist businesses and individuals dealing with the financial impacts of coronavirus.

.

Note to Mr. Kudlow: Do not trust Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Fauci is a purposeful panic seller. His goals are not the administrations goals.

(more…)

Canada completes the North American cycle with their ratification of the USMCA to replace NAFTA. Mexico and the U.S. ratified the new trade agreement last year and January respectively.  The Canadian parliament did so yesterday.

CANADA – Canada on Friday formally approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), taking the last legislative step to implementation of the deal to replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The trade deal, ratified by the Mexican legislature last June and by Congress in January, was formally ratified by the Canadian Senate Friday, and shortly thereafter received royal assent, the Canadian governor general’s approval.

The deal was passed through the legislature before Parliament shut down for five weeks in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

(more…)

It took some digging but we found it. The 2020 Coronavirus Response Act is H.R.6201 [SEE HERE].

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is saying the Democrats and White House have made an agreement to pass the content of the Coronavirus Response Act.  However, there is no confirmation from the White House (yet).

President Trump is meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in the White House right now.

WASHINGTON – House Democrats and the Trump administration reached agreement on a coronavirus response package Friday after a day of grueling negotiations, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.

“We are proud to have reached an agreement with the Administration to resolve outstanding challenges, and now will soon pass the Families First Coronavirus Response Act,” she wrote to Democrats after hours of back-and-forth with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

(more…)

Most people are aware the Wuhan coronavirus has become an economic contagion within China. However, the scale of the contraction is only now being quantified and the data doesn’t match the visible reality.
When evaluating the data showing drops in exports from China is worthwhile to consider the lack of visible supply-chain disruption formerly predicted by global economic “analysts”.  According to Reuters; to the extent data can be gathered from within a closed communist system; total exports from China dropped 17.2% in January and February.

The lack of factory production has cut the estimated growth rate within China by half.  However, is that a cause?  – or – Is that a cover?  For decades corporations have moved to a supply chain process known as Just-In-Time (JIT) inventory.
If Chinese component manufactured goods were part of a critical corporate supply chain, and with more than 30-days of source disruption quantified, there would be impacts by now. Where are the crippled customers?  There are no measurable, demonstrable, citations for missing component parts making downstream finished goods impossible.  There are lots of anticipatory declarations, but no shortage has materialized.
(more…)

7:30pm – THE PRESIDENT participates in a working dinner with the President of the Federative Republic of Brazil

White House – President Donald J. Trump will meet President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, March 7, 2020. President Trump and President Bolsonaro will discuss opportunities to build a more prosperous, secure, and democratic world.

As leaders of the Hemisphere’s two largest economies, they will also discuss opportunities for restoring democracy in Venezuela, bringing peace to the Middle East, implementing pro-growth trade policies, and investing in infrastructure. The President will use this meeting as an opportunity to thank Brazil for its strong alliance with the United States. (link)

Jumpin’ ju-ju bones.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights an excellent jobs report for February with 273,000 new jobs added; and an upward revision of 85,000 job gains in December and January.  Total new jobs with revisions 358,000; that’s exceptional.
Main Street USA is very strong, exceptionally strong; and the fundamentals of the U.S. economy show balance and overall strength.  Keep in mind, while all of this growth is happening the full impacts of the renegotiated trade deals have yet to kick in.

Highlighting the strength in the overall economy the construction sector added 42,000 jobs in February, following a similar gain in January (+49,000). In 2019, construction job gains averaged 13,000 per month. In February, employment gains occurred in specialty trade contractors (+26,000) and residential building (+10,000). This specific metric is important because it highlights economic expansion from U.S. workers and households having financial strength for home purchasing.

(BLS DATA) Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.0 percent.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 37,000 from +147,000 to +184,000, and the change for January was revised up by 48,000 from +225,000 to +273,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 85,000 higher than previously reported. (link)

(more…)

President Trump is disrupting decades of multinational financial interests who use the U.S. as a host for their ideological endeavors. President Trump is confronting multinational corporations and the global constructs of economic systems that were put in place to the detriment of the host (USA) ie. YOU. There are trillions at stake; it is all about the economics; all else is chaff and countermeasures.

We are already familiar how China, Mexico and ASEAN nations export our raw materials (ore, coking coal, rare earth minerals etc.). The raw materials are used to manufacture goods overseas, the cheap durable goods are then shipped back into the U.S. for purchase.
It is within this decades-long process where we lost the manufacturing base, and the multinational economic planners (World Trade Organization) put us on a path to being a “service driven” economy.
The road to a “service-driven economy” is paved with a great disparity between financial classes. The wealth gap is directly related to the inability of the middle-class to thrive.
Elite financial interests, including those within Washington DC, gain wealth and power, the U.S. workforce is reduced to servitude, “service”, of their affluent needs.
The destruction of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base is EXACTLY WHY the wealth gap has exploded in the past 30 years.
(more…)

Coronavirus As An Economic Contagion

Steve Bannon discusses the Chinese Coronavirus as an economic contagion and how the Trump economic security doctrine applies to the current downstream impacts.  Even before the Coronavirus surfaced in China there was lower manufacturing factory activity within the Chinese economy.  The necessary response within China to control the spread of the Coronavirus was to shut down most commerce.  Factories, schools &  businesses throughout China were impacted as various containment measures took hold.

Economic Nationalism -vs- Economic Globalism

Despite the intense doomsayer predictions surrounding the ‘Coronavirus as an economic contagion’ narrative, the U.S. economy remains strong. When evaluating economic impacts for the USA it is important to remember 80 percent of all activity within the U.S. is internal. We create and consume eighty percent of our own production.
(more…)

CTH is more confident than ever about POTUS having a comprehensive understanding of the bigger picture around COVID-19 and China’s Coronavirus outbreak.  In this interview Senator Marco Rubio discusses the risks that China now represents on a myriad of levels.
The Coronavirus issue hits on three main points of policy outlined by President Trump since his initial announcement of candidacy in 2015:  (1) The need for secure borders and strong immigration controls. (2) The need to stop reliance on Chinese manufacturing; and (3) The need for the U.S. to have independent control over key sectors of manufacturing; including healthcare products and pharmaceuticals, as a matter of national security.

.
Stay big picture. Think about what you know of the aggressive Communist and strategic disposition of China. In addition to the risks within technology development (well discussed), allowing China to have a heavy influence over critical healthcare supply chains is too dangerous.
(more…)