National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the most excellent April jobs report and the continued forecast for U.S. economic growth.
Director Kudlow points out the greatest current economic benefits are being felt in the blue-collar Main Street sector; and rebuts former Vice President Joe Biden’s comments on the administration policy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the April 2019 jobs report and the results are excellent. It’s a home run for MAGAnomics as the trifecta continues: Job gains +263,000, Wage growth +3.2%, Inflation low at 1.4%.
With a gain of 263,000 new jobs in April, the overall unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%. There are more jobs available than people looking for work. Additionally, the prior two months jobs results were revised upward by 16,000 more than previous reported.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, compared with an average monthly gain of 213,000 over the prior 12 months.
Professional and business services added 76,000 jobs in April. Over the past 12 months, professional and business services has added 535,000 jobs
In April, construction employment rose by 33,000. Construction has added 256,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
Employment in health care grew by 27,000 in April and 404,000 over the past 12 months.
In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $27.77. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent.
Well, it looks like the outcome of a horsetrading deal is starting to assemble. President Trump meeting with Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer et al, to discuss a $2 trillion infrastructure deal. Despite their schemes and plots this is worth watching:
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Democrats don’t want the baggage of a tax increase heading into 2020… so Schumer punts the financing of the $2 trillion to President Trump; forcing the White House to deal with the dirty part (likelihood a gas tax increase), while Schumer/Pelosi keep clean hands on the high-brow aspect of beautiful infrastructure. That part is politically predictable.
That said, CTH can see the outline a deal where Democrats exchange votes for President Trump’s trade deals (specifically USMCA); to offset the Wall Street Republicans that will vote against the trade agreements; in return for provisions of an infrastructure deal that will benefit Pelosi/Schumer. (more…)
The U.S. economic numbers continue to gain strength. Ahead of his departure to China for ongoing trade negotiations, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discusses the current state of the economy with Maria Bartiromo.
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Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer arrive in China tomorrow. This meeting will determine their recommendations to President Trump as to whether a deal can be reached. If no, the potential to re-institute delayed round-two tariffs is possible. (more…)
National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the latest strong economic numbers including GDP growth, rising wages, low inflation, and strong capital investment. Additionally, Kudlow discusses current status of U.S. trade negotiations with China and a looming battle against the Decpeticons for USMCA.
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On the latest Op-ed by Iowa Decepticon Senator Chuck Grassley. As I mentioned last week, the Grassley/Johnson letter to AG Bill Barr is exhibit “A” in how DC attempts to leverage their own financial interests against the outsider that is Donald Trump.
Senate Finance Chairman Grassley’s move last week was a shot across the bow, but generally only noticed by those who travel the deep weeds of corrupt DC leverage strategy. Essentially, Grassley saying he won’t allow Trump to expose the deep state corruption unless Trump concedes to Wall Street’s demands on trade deals.
It only took a few days for the evidence of this leverage move to surface as Grassley, acting on behalf of his K-Street donors, writes an Op-ed stating if Trump doesn’t drop the Steel and Aluminum tariffs, then he can consider the USMCA “dead”. An absolutely typical Decepticon move. (more…)
The professional financial punditry can’t explain it. Flummoxed academics run around bumping into walls amid economic numbers that continue to defy expectations. All caused by a simple return to common sense ‘America First’ MAGAnomics. Low unemployment (3.8%); wages growing (+3.2%); inflation stable (1.6%). These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans. Prices for durable goods are stable and wage growth is exceeding inflation. That means more disposable income in the middle-class…DUH. Which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.
Today the BEA is out with consumer spending results for the first quarter that defy expectations. Consumer spending on goods increases 1.7%. Overall spending +.09 in March, reaches highest gain in ten years. The deplorables are spending their higher wages. Go figure. Meanwhile core inflation drops to 1.6%. The pundits are shocked.
(Reuters Headline) “U.S. consumer spending roars back, but inflation tame” – WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in more than 9-1/2 years in March as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles, but price pressures remained muted, with a key inflation measure posting its smallest annual gain in 14 months.
President Donald Trump hosts Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for a round of golf today, while First Lady Melania Trump hosts Madame Akie Abe in DC.
The relationship between the Trump’s and the Abe’s goes back quite a while and is rooted in a genuine friendship. The president and prime minister are strong competitors on trade and economic policy; however, the competition is founded on respect.
Prime Minister Abe’s economic policies are rooted in the growth process taught by Edwards Demming. If you follow their professional business ideology, it is easy to see how President Trump and Prime Minister Abe would face-off around a standard of excellence.
When combined the economies of the United States and Japan account for approximately 30 percent of all global gross domestic product.
This is really old-school business stuff. Each leader, is essentially an economic policy coach for his country; creating strategies and championing growth in a challenge to see who can succeed the most. They respect each-other, but this is old school. PM Abe isn’t about to concede to a deal where Japanese growth is ceded; however, he will not cheat to achieve success (unlike Xi). So friendly adversarial negotiations continue. Good stuff.
Meanwhile First-Lady Melania Trump and Madame Akie Abe toured some of the historic sites in the capital, including the Washington Monument and US National Arboretum. (more…)
President Donald Trump: “The GDP numbers were just announced and they were far higher than even the high expectation. There were many people who thought it would less than 2, and they were at 3.2.”
“Inflation numbers are very low. The gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC. I said, “You got to bring them down. You got to bring them down.” And gasoline is coming down. We’re doing great.”
“GDP is an incredible number. But remember this: Not only that, we have a great growth — which is growth. We have great growth and also very, very low inflation. Our economy is doing great. Number one in the world. We’re number-one economy right now in the world and it’s not even close. So thank you very much.” (more…)
A tale of two contrasting sets of economic priorities. The U.S. economy continues to outpace all economic forecasts. Recently U.S. retail sales, wage growth and housing starts have exceeded all expectations. Tomorrows announced U.S. GDP growth is positioned to exceed all previous doomsayer predictions from the professional financial back-bench.
However, the economic results in Canada are going in the opposite direction. The Bank of Canada cut their GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.2% today. A forecast drop of half a percent is a massive drop considering the prior rate of growth was meager at best.
Two full years into the advancement of America-First priorities, the international community is now admitting they can only find growth and value in U.S. investments.
(Via Reuters) […] The [Canadian] central bank now expects economic growth in the first half of 2019 to be lower than anticipated in January, when it released its last monetary policy report, due to a slowdown in Canada’s oil sector, the negative impact of global trade policies and a weaker-than-expected housing sector.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a much lower trade deficit than all economists predicted. This is good news for the upcoming GDP growth report because the value of imported goods are deducted from GDP.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $49.4 billion in February, down $1.8 billion from $51.1 billion in January. (read more)
The smaller overall trade deficit was primarily driven by a decrease in the deficit with China. The deficit with China decreased $3.1 billion to $30.1 billion in February. As noted by Reuters: ““It sounds like pencils are being sharpened in order to revise up first-quarter GDP forecasts,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.“
With little inflation in the U.S. economy it appears Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods are essentially invisible to the consumer; likely being absorbed overseas in an effort to keep their prices low upon delivery. As the Trump administration negotiates on the world’s first ever Free Trade Agreement with China, the willingness/ability to execute additional tariffs provides ongoing leverage. (more…)
