The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, aka “JOLTS report“, lags behind monthly employment reports by a month as the ‘hires‘ and ‘quits‘ are contrast against available job openings.
In the latest JOLTS report we find evidence why the May employment numbers were less than expected. The data shows the economy is expanding; businesses are hiring; and the reason for lower new hires has nothing to do with an economic slow-down. In essence, the labor market is tight, very tight, and Main Street businesses are having a hard time finding qualified workers.

According to the BLS stats overall job hiring in April was 5.9 million. That’s the largest number of people hired in the history of the JOLTS record-keeping (started in 2000). There are 7.45 million current job openings and only 5.82 million workers identified as unemployed. That means there are 1.63 million more jobs than available workers.
This is a clear indication expanding economic conditions and a near ‘full-employment‘ position for the overall labor market. Additionally the quits rate is 2.3 percent, reflecting that workers are: (a) being recruited away from current employment to jump to other businesses; and (b) worker are confident about getting a job, and jumping into new jobs for higher wages/benefits. As a result, the strong ‘quits’ rate has historically been a precursor KPI for future wage growth stats.
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Appearing on Fox News Sunday acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan discusses the approach by President Trump to impose import tariffs on Mexico if the administration of President Lopez-Obrador does not fulfill their pledge.
Along with outlining the Mexican agreement, McAleenan notes President Trump is absolutely willing to impose the tariffs on Mexico if there is no substantive and immediate improvement to stem the flow of Central American migrants.

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UPDATE: U.S-Mexico Joint Statement Added at bottom:
President Trump tweets that a signed deal has been reached between the U.S. and Mexico to stop the unlawful Central American migration that has created a crisis at the border:

According to the president details will come from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who, along with VP Mike Pence and Secretary Wilbur Ross, was central to the U.S. negotiating team.
The Mexican government of Lopez-Obrador was desperate to reach an agreement as U.S. companies had already begun rapid supply chain preparation to avoid the tariffs scheduled to begin on Monday. Think about the scale of international investment into Mexico, done with the sole purpose of gaining access to the U.S. market.
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The majority of financial media punditry claim Orangeman Tariffs’ bad.  Truly, it’s the stupidest and most disingenuous oft-spoken claim with ZERO foundation in reality.
Chinese tariffs have been in place since July 2017, no measurable inflation on Chinese goods. Steel and Aluminum tariffs in place since 2017; again, no measurable inflation on core product or finished consumer goods.   Auto tariffs on China – now absorbed by GM.  Soft-wood tariffs (countervailing duties) against Canadian dumping – same result.

The supply chain results completely refute U.S. CoC Tom Donohue’s doomsayer-promised economic proclamations.  If tariffs are so destructive, why was/is everyone ‘except the U.S’ using them to protect their industry segments and economies?
The truth is, the financial class and professional multinational lobbyists don’t want people to realize the modern trade system was designed to reduce American wealth.  It’s a feature not a flaw.
The collapse of U.S. manufacturing did not happen accidentally.  The rust-belt was not created accidentally.  NAFTA was not designed accidentally.  The back-door to the U.S. market was not created accidentally. Middle-class jobs were not lost accidentally.  Wages did not stagnate accidentally….  All of these results were brought about by specific design.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides the May jobs report.  Top line job gains were moderate at 75,000 and the unemployment rate holds steady at 3.6%.  However wage growth of 3.1%, and a monthly shift of 299,000 jobs from part-time to full-time reflects tight labor market in specific Main Street (blue and white collar) jobs.
The overall gain of 75,000 for May is low considering the economic growth. However, a review of the underlying data tells a story of a tightened labor pool; specifically inside the Main Street, middle-class, blue and white collar labor market.  [Table B-1]

Overall wage growth of 3.1% is very strong, and driven primarily by increased wages in “non-supervisory” payroll; ie. the actual workers (non mgmt). May was the 10th straight month with annual wage gains of at least 3 percent. Wages for non-supervisory workers continue to rise at a faster rate of 3.4 percent.
With inflation remaining low (1.4%); and assuming inflation is unchanged in May; the 3.4% non-supervisory wage growth, at current wage rates, is equivalent to nearly $900 per year in real wage growth for a blue-collar worker at 40 hours per week. [Table B-8]
We see the second large indicator of a tight Main Street labor market in the shift from part-time to full-time employment:
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During brief press remarks following a USMCA speech in Pennsylvania, Vice President Mike Pence outlined the current status of “talks” between the U.S. and Mexican officials.
The vice-president affirms several times that President Trump is “firm in his position” to see Mexico step-up and do more to stop the mass migration of illegal aliens from Central America.  If you think about it, against the context of the USMCA, the Trump position to confront Mexico is absolutely the right approach.
Mexico wants the USMCA trade agreement, and they want to be united with the U.S. and Canada on trade and collaborative economic benefits.  However, simultaneously Mexico has repeatedly said it will not join the “Safe Third Country” agreement held by the United States and Canada, where asylum seekers must apply for refuge in whichever country they first arrive in, as each is considered safe.

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[It’s worth noting that Pence is likely under a lot of pressure from Tom Donohue and his friends within the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Pence deserves credit for standing up to his traditional tribe.]
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When President Trump began confronting China on trade practices, there was always a likely totalitarian Chinese response. The inevitable response when confronting the duplicitous dragon is always an attack; it’s the only way Beijing knows how to respond.

Last week Beijing threatened to take action against any corporation who would be perceived as working against the interests of the state.  This week communist Beijing begins doing exactly that:

(SCMP) China’s antitrust regulator slapped a US$23.6 million fine on Ford Motor Company’s Chinese venture for restricting sales prices in its hometown, taking the second such action against US carmakers in three years as trade tensions deteriorated between the world’s two largest economies.

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According to recent reporting, officials representing the U.S. and Mexico have failed to reach an agreement on measures to stop the flood of migrants traveling through Mexico.  As a result of the scale of the crisis, and without an agreement from Mexico to stop the worsening problem, President Trump has announced tariffs on imported goods from Mexico will start June 10th.
A hastily called press conference by Mexican officials is pending.  Livestream Link

Predictably Mexican President Lopez-Obrador is unwilling to stop the migration from Central America.  There are strong indications the Mexican government does not control the border region as Mexican drug cartels are in charge.
Last month U.S. Customs and Border Patrol report 144,278 people were apprehended attempting to cross the U.S. southern border in May alone.  The region is in crisis.
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…“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.” 

~ Niccolò Machiavelli

CTH has been fully immersed in the battle against the Chamber of Commerce Decepticons for so long we have to be careful of our language.  This battle is the heart of Wall Street’s war against MAGA Main Street.
Republican senators from Mitch McConnell’s ‘decepticon caucus’ are now warning President Trump they will fully engage in an open effort to stop him from confronting the corrupt corporate systems that finance their life of indulgence.  Tariff’s on Mexico are a bridge too far for Tom Donohue and the multinational Wall Street lobbying system.  The republicans who benefit from K-Street lobbyist payments are now on full display.

Senate Leader Mitch McConnell has one major career alliance that has been unbroken and unchanged for well over two decades.  That alliance is with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and specifically with CoC President Tom Donohue.  [SEE HERE and SEE HERE].
However, decepticon senator John Kennedy (U-LA) has personally spoken to Trump and outlines the president will not back down in the face of their threats:

“He’s as serious as four heart attacks and a stroke,” Kennedy told reporters at the Capitol. “A 5% tariff isn’t going to break the bank. A 25% tariff is a different story, but we are a long way from there.” (link)

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The hypocrisy and ideology of the Mexican position would indicate the tariffs are certain to take place.  Factually, after Mexico has made their “red line” position clear, one could argue there’s no reason to go through the graduated timeline; the U.S. might as well just start applying the full 25% tariff amount on June 10th.

WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico said on Monday it would reject a U.S. idea to take in all Central American asylum seekers if it is raised at talks this week with the Trump administration, which has threatened to impose tariffs if Mexico does not crack down on illegal immigration.
[…] Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country was committed to continuing to work to keep migrants from Central America from reaching the U.S. border.

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