China needs to buy dollars to backstop their own currency (¥uan). When China trades with the U.S. they hold the return dollars as a peg against their weak currency.  Remove the flow of dollars (lessen exports) and they start to run out of strong pegged currency.
What is happening today is not as much direct devaluation by China; rather they are intentionally allowing their currency to drop in value, in an effort to lower export prices and off-set any tariffs from the U.S.   Simultaneously, Beijing is spending internally, burning cash, to keep their economy from weakening.  Their Yuan burn rate is greater than the influx of higher valued dollars needed to hold their position.
They cannot keep this position indefinitely.
First, here’s a solid interview with former CEO Gerald Storch on how the currency devaluation leads to lower prices for U.S. consumers.  Again, emphasizing the point that U.S. consumers are not paying for the tariffs against China.  Watch:

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Originally outlined over two years ago. Reposted by request, because we are watching it play out in real time: Believe me, at the heart of the professional/political opposition the issue is the money; there are trillions at stake.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic trade and foreign policy agenda is jaw-dropping in scale, scope and consequence. There are multiple simultaneous aspects to each policy objective; they have been outlined for a long time, even before the election victory in November ’16.
If you get too far into the weeds the larger picture can be lost. CTH objective is to continue pointing focus toward the larger horizon, and then at specific inflection points to dive into the topic and explain how each moment is connected to the larger strategy.

Today we repost an earlier dive into how MAGAnomic policy interacts with multinational Wall Street, the stock market, the U.S. financial system and perhaps your personal financial value. Again, reference and source material is included at the end of the outline.
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It has always been clear that Fox News pundit Chris Wallace is a defender of all swamp activity based on his social network within the same cocktail circuit; however, today he completely dropped all pretense and launched a full propaganda effort on behalf of Wall Street, Multinational Corporations and the Global Financial Community.
White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News and Wallace literally takes the talking points of Goldman Sachs Asian Investment Division, complete with graphics, and attempts to argue -despite empirical evidence to the contrary- that tariffs have made consumer prices rise.   This segment is just ridiculous:

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To retain their export position -and offset the tariffs- China and the EU have devalued their currency; and China is directly subsiding their manufacturers.  A lower ¥uan, and a lower €uro make the value of the dollar rise.  That means it takes less dollars to import Chinese and European goods.  That means prices do not rise.  That’s just a fact.
Additionally, the graphic made by Fox News to push their propaganda is literally from Goldman Sachs, Asian Investment Division.  Look:
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With President Trump announcing an additional ten percent tariff on $300 billion of Chinese products, the Chamber of Commerce worm, Tom Donohue, comes out to oppose.
An interesting juxtaposition between two interviews.  The first with National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, and the counter point by CoC President Dohohue:

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In the next interview Donohue surfaces… he has no choice.  Tom Donohue is paid tens of millions by the Wall Street multinationals to retain the current exploitative system of global trade.  Donohue has no influence over President Trump.
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Earlier today President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced a new U.S. trade deal with Europe for the duty-free export of U.S. beef.
Joining President Trump and U.S.T.R. Lighthizer is Stavros Lambrinidis, the EU ambassador to the US, and Jani Raappana, deputy head of mission for the Finnish presidency of the Council of the EU.  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much everybody. We appreciate it. A wonderful day, and a wonderful deal for a lot of people. Today, we’re signing a breakthrough agreement that will make it easier to export American beef into the European Union. We’ve been under negotiation for quite a while. And our beef farmers, we didn’t think were being treated fair, but the European Union stepped up and we appreciate it. And we have great representatives here with us today.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow on trade negotiations with China, and how the EU is positioning to off-set global economic contraction.  Additionally, Kudlow discusses the aspects of the July jobs report overlooked by Wall Street pundits.

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Do not overlook or underestimate the importance of the bigger picture behind the global economic forecasts and the collective alignment against U.S. President Donald Trump.  The ‘America First’ program is against their interests. There are trillions at stake.
Asia, primarily China, and the EU rely on common alignment with the multinationals who control Wall Street and have influenced U.S. trade and economic policy for 35 years.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the jobs data for July.  Overall employment rose by 164,000 new jobs; that’s great.  Average hourly wages grew by 8 cents to $27.98, a year-over-year growth of 3.2 percent; again great.  163.4 million people working is the highest number of people working in history; more good news. [Data release link]
However, there’s an even better result in a very important data-point.  363,000 people moved from part-time to full-time employment.   The move from PT to FT employment is a key indicator of a very strong economy and workers are benefiting in benefits, wages, and total compensation which now exceeds 5.5 percent growth.

[CNBC NEWS] Economists had expected the unemployment rate to drop to 3.6%, which would have tied a 50-year low, but an influx of 370,000 new workers to the labor force brought the participation rate up to 63%, its highest since March. The total labor force of 163.4 million set a record high.
The report “illustrates that, for all the concern over weak global growth and trade policy, the domestic economy is still holding up reasonably well,” said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. (read more)

An excellent discussion between White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro and Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo about the current state of President Trump’s Main Street policy and economy.  The second half of the interview is the best part. Navarro outlines the background of the second quarter GDP result, and he hits the nail on the head. Hi Pete.
As CTH previously highlighted, the two primary drags on the Q2 release are also the most volatile: Export/Import contributions (-.65%), and Inventory contributions (-.86%) [table 2]. However, consumer spending was much stronger than anticipated (+4.3%) showing the internal strength of the U.S. labor market and the impact of wage growth which now exceeds 5.5 percent.  The rebound in Q3 is going to be very, very good.

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Note to Mr. Navarro: Enjoy the winning. Relax, you’re solid. Despite the financial punditry class consistently trying to downbeat the good news; you don’t have to carry the burden of adversarialism. You’re a good warrior; we know.  You don’t have to prove your salt. The American people can see the results, and the entire MAGAnomic team, including you, have our full support. Have some fun.
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We previously outlined Mr. Zhongtian Liu [HERE] as part of the early 2018 explanation for how China was exploiting the NAFTA loophole as an end-run around tariffs.  Today the Central District of California U.S. Attorney announces his indictment.

LOS ANGELES– A federal grand jury indictment unsealed late Tuesday alleges a complex financial fraud scheme in which a Chinese company exported to the United States huge amounts of aluminum – disguised as “pallets” to avoid customs duties of up to 400 percent – and “sold” the purported pallets to related entities to fraudulently inflate the company’s revenues and deceive investors around the world.
The 53-page indictment alleges that China Zhongwang Holdings Limited, Asia’s largest aluminum extrusion company; Zhongtian Liu, the company’s former president and chairman; and several individual and corporate co-defendants lied to U.S. Customs and Border Protection to avoid paying the United States $1.8 billion in anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) that were imposed in 2011 on certain types of extruded aluminum imported into the United States from China.

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In 2015 CTH outlined how candidate Donald Trump’s proposals were in-line with those who had long argued for a return of “economic nationalism”.  We also outlined when those proposals (now policy) are implemented, Fed action would be essentially irrelevant.

The Federal Reserve is pegged to the Wall Street Economy.  President Trump’s policies are pegged to the Main Street Economy.  There is a disconnect; a new dimension in U.S. economics; and very few people understand what happens in this space between them.
Thirty-five years ago Fed monetary policy impacted the U.S. economy directly because almost all activity (durable good manufacturing) was within our borders.  The natural dynamic of inflation could be influenced by the Fed.  Rate changes could offset inflation and also enhance domestic investment etc.
However, as time progressed that manufacturing activity -the basic underpinning of middle-class jobs, wages etc- shifted overseas.  When monetary policy became controlled by multinationals (Wall Street influencers purchasing politicians), capital investment moved to generate purely higher profits.  Businesses, specifically manufacturing, went abroad.  As a consequence the determination of prices, ie ‘inflation’, was no longer influenced by the Fed because the actual economic activity was/is outside the U.S. borders.
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