Excellent interview by Charles Payne as White House Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro outlines how the strategic road map of MAGAnomics is converging.  If you want to see the future, listen to how Navarro outlines what’s coming.
The six MAGAnomic components to pay attention to include: ♦changes to the Universal Postal Union (UPU); ♦HUD Opportunity Zones; ♦America First raw material policy for infrastructure; ♦retail sales strength; ♦the current status of the U.S-China negotiations; and ♦the USMCA ratification.

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♦The UPU was one of those archaic policy issues set-up with good intentions, and then maintained by ‘stupid’ politicians well after it should have been renegotiated.  It’s good to hear that mess is coming to an end in October.
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An article from Reuters discussing the position of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is interesting.   Essentially the IMF is warning that “global economies” will contract by $455 billion next year due to the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S., China, the EU and to a lesser extent, Japan.  Yes Alice, there are hundreds of billions at stake.
There’s really no reason to doubt the amount estimated, though I think it’s on the short side, but the yearly value seems in line.  I have no doubt President Trump will cost the “Global Economy” $455 billion…. because that money will be transferring back to the America First economy. That’s what happens as MAGAnomics reverses the IMF trade (wealth distribution) model.

The IMF is correct in part (the effect), incorrect in part (the cause), and mostly hypocritical.  The Euro-minded IMF rails against the high value of the U.S. dollar, but simultaneously ignores the motives behind the intentional devaluation of currencies that are pegged against the dollar.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday the U.S. dollar was overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the euro, the Japanese yen and China’s yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals.

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Today President Donald Trump is hosting the 3rd Annual Made in America product showcase on the south lawn of the White House.  Anticipated start time 11:45am EST:
UPDATE: Video and Transcript Added

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[Transcript]  THE PRESIDENT: That sounds nice, doesn’t it? Beautiful. Thank you very much. And thank you very much. Terrific talent.  Please sit down. Please.
I want welcome everyone to the White House. We are very excited to be hosting our third annual Made in America Showcase. It’s all about “Made in America.” (Applause.) We just started this, and this is my third already. And I just went around and saw these incredible companies that make everything from the THAAD missiles to beautiful boats. And I said, “How would that boat do against the THAAD missile?” And it wasn’t a good answer. (Laughter.) The boat is going to have a little problem, but that’s okay.
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U.S. President Donald Trump is attending an event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, today to discuss the importance of a North American trade bloc and support the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal.
Anticipated start time approximately 2:25pm EST.
UPDATE: Video Added

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News to discuss the June jobs report, current Federal Reserve policy, the Trump administration’s trade negotiations with China and former Reagan Economist Art Laffer receiving the Medal of Freedom.
On the China front there’s a weird, seemingly disconnected, dynamic appearing at the surface level within China.  The position of Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice-Premier Liu He seems unusually separated from Beijing messaging (more on that later). Here’s Kudlow:

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Today, July 1st, is the first day of the third quarter 2019.  As typical some of the earliest economic reporting from June is released.  One of the first reports comes from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) as they compile the manufacturing sector.

As noted in the ISM review, manufacturing growth remains strong with an overall index of 51.7 (anything above 50 is growth), and the results are stronger than initially predicted by the financial media (Wall Street).
The manufacturing production index for June is 54.1 versus last month’s 51.3 (May); generally this means manufacturing outputs are growing, order backlogs are being reduced, orders are being fulfilled faster.  This is an indication that new production investment is now coming on-line and delivering actual products from orders.
In the past CTH had noted the heavy Main Street investment which began in 2017 would start to come on-line in Q2 2019, it generally takes about two years for a new manufacturing facility to start producing, and then increases in production efficiency follow.  The ISM result shows we were pretty close with that forecast.
Within the review there are particular notes for additional interest.  First, the June manufacturing employment index is 54.5, very strong; (last month 53.7).  In essence manufacturers are hiring at a fast rate.  One cause is better weather (seasonal), and the majority cause is filling the jobs from new production facilities coming on-line.
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President Trump has tweeted the high-level status of the negotiation restart.  Essentially the outcome is as we expected.

• Trade talks resume from former stalled point. [Likely Vice-Premier Liu He is back representing Chairman Xi Jinping – Beijing retreat]
• Current enhanced tariff’s remain in place. [The tariffs that were raised when talks collapsed will remain raised and in force. – Beijing retreat]
• China resumes AG purchases. [Likely soy beans will be priority – Beijing retreat]
• U.S. will allow trade purchases, exports, to Huawei of non-National Security tech. [Ross likely to determine products – Trump modifies position]

From this summation it would appear President Trump has created an exit ramp for Chairman Xi Jinping that allows him to save face.  However, obviously with retention of the recent tariff increases the benefits beyond optics all favor President Trump.
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As President Trump begins day-two at the G20 he happens to tweet a public message to Chairman Kim Jong-Un about a quick meet-and-greet at the DMZ.  You know, if you’ve got a few minutes… LOL.

Too darned funny….. Obviously this possibility was the subject of the letter which President Trump recently sent to Chairman Kim which the North Korean leader described as “excellent content“.   Trump had this tweet timed for this moment. As we noted at the time, this was predictable.

By President Trump announcing the possibility of a visit with Kim Jong-un before Xi has a chance to sell his DPRK influence for a better trade outcome, President Trump has essentially removed any value.  Chairman Xi, the hostage taker, has been tricked by the hostage rescuer.

On the hostage dynamic – last week the hostage taker (Chairman Xi), finally positioned the public optics of Chairman Kim as the hostage; and indicated a likelihood Beijing would negotiate terms for release (better trade deal) with President Trump. Therefore the rescuer (Trump) countered with communication with the hostage (Kim), and set up an entirely different geopolitical background.
President Trump has totally out-witted Chairman Xi.
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There will be more detailed summaries coming later; however, here’s some of the more interesting aspects so far.   The G20 Osaka, Japan Group Picture:

(Click Image to Enlarge)

As expected the schedule of President Trump’s first set of bilateral discussions seems structured around the Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s expansion.  In this strategy within Southeast Asia geopolitics Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the fulcrum for a shifting economic dynamic.
President Trump hosts a bilateral with Prime Minister Abe, and then again hosts a rather unusual trilateral meeting between himself, Abe and India’s Prime Minister Modi.  The three leaders met in a trilateral discussion at the Buenos Aires G20 in 2018.
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In the dynamic of President Trump confronting Chairman Xi over Chinese trade and manufacturing practices there are critical members of the U.S. team, each with a role to play.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are the most important members.
Secretary Ross explains the position of the U.S. team as they head to the G20. WATCH:

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As we discussed yesterday, Chinese anxiety is off-the-charts.  When China gets into this high-anxiety disposition, they immediately -predictably- drop the Panda mask, and lash-out with Red Dragon antagonisms.  This is happening right now.
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