China controls North Korea; essentially as a proxy province.  As a result Beijing controls the messaging from the DPRK.  Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping is the captor and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un is the captive – it’s essentially a hostage dynamic.  The historic objective has been to use DPRK aggression as a hedge against the west.
Predictably there was going to come a moment when Chairman Xi realized the trade negotiations by his adversary, President Trump, were a hall of mirrors.  The U.S. President has played China by using their own panda-mask strategy against them.

President Trump achieved his goal when no-one was paying attention. The goal was a decoupling from China on economic terms.  Strategic decoupling has been underway for over a year.   There is no actual intent to reach a trade deal with China where the U.S. drops the tariffs and returns to holding hands with a happy panda playing by new rules. This fictional narrative is a figment of fantasy being sold by a financial media that cannot fathom a U.S. President would be so bold as to just walk away from China.
For almost three years U.S. President Trump has been working on two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon (Kim is hostage to China); and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China.
Both issues are directly connected to U.S. national security; and both issues are being approached by President Trump through the use of economic leverage to achieve national security results.
(more…)

Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) employee Henry Kyle Frese was arrested yesterday and charged with leaking multiple classified intelligence reports to media. (Full pdf below).

According to the indictment Mr. Frese was caught leaking classified intelligence information to two journalists, one of which he was romantically involved.
Mr. Kyle Frese has a twitter account HERE. Cross-referencing information from within the indictment, research by Matthew Keys has indicated journalist #1 is Courtney Kube from NBC, and journalist #2 is Amanda Macias from CNBC.  The intelligence leaked by Mr. Frese to Ms. Macias likely revolves around North Korean defense systems. [DOJ Announcement Here]

WASHINGTON – A U.S. counterterrorism analyst was arrested at the Defense Intelligence Agency where he worked on charges related to alleged leaks of information to two journalists, the Justice Department said.

(more…)

Someone is coming to the United States next week.  Can you read this tweet and predict who it is?…

Seriously, given that we have watched this dynamic play out, over-and-over, for more than two years, it seems almost silly that China continues to play this tactical negotiation card.
Alas, :::heavy sigh::: this stupid dance continues…

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump said on Thursday a delegation from China would come to the United States next week for more trade talks.

(more…)

In the bigger picture… Within the trade team, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is positioned with primary responsibility toward the EU and India. Ross clear-cuts through the politics, explains Trump’s objectives amid the trade proposals, and paves a path for U.S. Trade Rep Bob Lighthizer to engage his counterparts.
India has always been a key strategic nation within the global trade-realignment taking place by the Trump administration.  Under all of the banter, the “Indo-Pacific” strategy is structurally the decoupling of the U.S. from China. As a part of the strategy President Trump has positioned the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as benefactors in manufacturing & trade as an outcome of the U.S. decoupling from China.

However, India has genuine concerns about the global dynamic. Specifically, India is worried about allowing the multinationals to have influence over their economy and social structure. In this regard India is not wrong; their concerns are not unfounded.
We can all see, heck we’ve lived through, massive multinational corporations quickly gaining too much influence; including -eventually- corporate influence over the politics of a nation. That inherently leads to corruption.
When Americans see it in other nations we call it “bribery and corruption”, but when it happens in Washington, DC, we call it “lobbying”; the process is exactly the same.
(more…)

Earlier today President Trump met with South Korean President Moon Jae-in (the Asian Obama) to discuss issues of mutual interests.  The relationship between Trump and Moon is one of the more interesting geopolitical dynamics.  President Moon is consistently flummoxed by the effectiveness of Trump and has learned to respect a strategy he doesn’t understand. [Video and Transcript Below]

.
[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much. We’re pleased to be with President Moon of South Korea. We have a long-term friendship, and we are making a lot of progress. We are working on tremendous trade deals. We — as you know, we’ve completed a trade deal, and that’s working out very well for both countries. That deal is completed now, and it’s been in existence for — solidly in existence for six months. And it’s been very good.
(more…)

Earlier today President Trump was introduced to by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to an enthusiastic crowed at a historic Houston event.   The introduction is the culmination of two-years of strategic geopolitical alignment within Trump’s new “Indo-Pacfic” strategy.
The introduction by Prime Minister Modi was effusive in praise for the partnership that has been developing ever since the 2017 global economic alignment began.  WATCH:

.
Long before the term “Indo-Pacific” was used by the administration, the trade reset strategy within the ASEAN nations became clear. President Trump positioned the fulcrum of the strategy around a trilateral alliance consisting of Japan, India and the United States.
(more…)

The situation in Hong Kong is a geopolitical dynamic that will likely become much more volatile in the next few weeks, months and/or years.  One constant in an ever-changing universe is how the UniParty in DC will attempt to drag the U.S. into the issues.

First, Hong Kong is China.  Whether a generation of people look back with regret to the time when Great Britain ceded the territory to Beijing is irrelevant.  China has, and will have, full control over Hong Kong; and that’s the way it is.  This will not be reversed.
Any effort for the people within Hong Kong to reverse the situation and escape the clutches of oppressive communism while retaining their liberty will only lead to massive bloodshed.
Unfortunately for Hong Kong, as President Trump decouples the U.S. economy from the duplicitous communist Chinese enterprise, Beijing will grasp more control over the heavily Western-influenced economic strata in/around Hong Kong.
(more…)

Chopper pressers are the best pressers. President Trump was leaving the White House at 9:48am for travel to New York and New Jersey when he conducted a full press conference that lasted more than 30 minutes.  The journalists were melting.
Topics and questions included: China and status of trade conflict, background checks, the Federal Reserve and interest rates, a new “very beautiful letter” from Kim Jong Un, the Mississippi ICE enforcement actions, Colin Kaepernick’s prospects for NFL employment and Joe Biden’s defects as a candidate.  [Video below – Transcript ADDED]

.
[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: So, we’re doing very well with China. We’re talking to China. We’re not ready to make a deal, but we’ll see what happens. But, you know, we’ve been hurt by China for 25, 30 years. Nobody has done anything about it. And we have no choice but to do what we’re doing.
It’s working out very well, as you know. We called them on manipulation and they brought their numbers back, and they brought them back rapidly. And they were able to do that because they manipulate. But that’s — so it’s called “monetary manipulation.” Not good.
(more…)

Beijing has once again used their proxy province of North Korea to launch small two short-range ballistic missiles as leverage in the U.S. and China trade confrontation.

WASHINGTON – For the fourth time in less than two weeks, North Korea has fired projectiles into the Sea of Japan, a U.S. official said.
The two projectiles, fired on Tuesday morning local time, were assessed to be similar to the short-range ballistic missiles tested by North Korea last week, the official said. (read more)

Moments later President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin fired a counter-missile directly into the heart of Beijing’s trade currency manipulation:
(more…)

The financial media still doesn’t get it… Obviously! Transfixed and jaw-agape at seemingly at-odds aspects to a new engagement with Beijing, the MSM financial media are clueless. They are genuinely disconnected, and have no idea what is going on.
The majority of financial pundits are perplexed at what they can see on the surface. USTR Robert Ligthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are beginning discussions with Beijing. Meanwhile President Trump’s tweets seem to dismiss the potential of the deal-making. The media call this mixed-messaging; however, that’s not what this is.

Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful last week when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First trade policy, there’s was a very clear picture. However, as we expected, most pundits and trade analysts ignored the administration message.
Commerce Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class when he said the current objective for Mnuchin and Lighthizer was to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.
That was a big tell.
(more…)