This is a little funny.  Back in 2015 we originally shared an easy peasy way to pay for the border wall by charging a 4% remittance fee on wire transfers to Mexico.  With more than $25 billion (2015) in Western Union transfers, more than Mexico’s entire oil and energy sector combined, a 4% U.S. surcharge on remittances creates $1 billion revenue annually.
The U.S. Treasury already has a similar process in place for Cuban Remittances and Western Union compliance affidavits.  The remittances to Mexico have now jumped to $27 billion in 2016.  Making the remittance fee even more feasible.

WASHINGTON – President Trump is mulling a tax on cash transfers between immigrants in the U.S. and their relatives in Mexico as a way to fund his promised border wall without forcing American taxpayers to open their wallets, according to sources familiar with the proposal.
Trump first floated the idea of taxing or halting person-to-person wire transfers, known as remittances, during his bid for the White House. A two-page memo released by his campaign last April described a plan “to compel Mexico to pay for the wall” by preventing immigrants from wiring money outside of the U.S. unless they can prove their legal status to law enforcement authorities.

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There is an saying people use to criticize President Trump based on the people around him:

“People are policy, and policy is people”…

The basic argument is that Mr. Trump can be swayed or distracted from his mission by his staff and those he hires.
This is a common catch-phrase brought about by historic and conventional wisdom.  However, when applied to President Trump, it’s also just plain wrong.
No similar cliche is appropriate for Donald Trump, nothing deters or influences him from his larger decades-long ‘America-First’ economic strategy. Nothing.
Donald Trump is the policy. There’s no assembly of advisers on economic issues that can ever sway his instinct.
Example:

(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump last month rejected a Chinese proposal to cut steel overcapacity, despite the endorsement of some of his top advisers, the Financial Times said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Beijing proposed cutting steel overcapacity by 150 million tonnes by 2022 in a deal twice rejected by Trump, who instead urged advisers to find ways to impose tariffs on imports from China, the paper said, citing the sources.

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It must be pointed out; it is up to us to do so.  The corporate media are hopelessly deficient in their coverage and explanations of how strategic objectives for national security are being delivered through a Trump Doctrine via economic leverage.  The results are stunningly effective, yet few have noticed, and even fewer seem willing to articulate.

The latest example of the geopolitical Trump Doctrine in action comes via Venezuela, and in the wake of a fraudulent Maduro election – the Trump administration’s economic and financial policy delivering sanctions against the rogue Maduro regime:

(Via LA Times) The Trump administration on Friday slapped sweeping financial sanctions on Venezuela, barring banks from any new financial deals with the government or state-run oil giant PDVSA.
The sanctions Trump signed by executive order are bound to dramatically escalate tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. and exacerbate the country’s economic crisis.

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In January Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tweeted support for massive increases in migration into Canada:

However, policy has consequences. Eight months later, the same Justin Trudeau is now overseeing the largest mass deportation increase in the history of Canada:

TORONTO (Reuters) – As an influx of asylum seekers crossing from the United States strains Canada’s immigration system, the country is ramping up its deportation of migrants, government data shows.
Deportations of Mexicans, who have flocked to Canada in growing numbers after a visa requirement was lifted in December, was already 66 percent higher in the first eight months of 2017 than the total from the previous year.

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At the end of the first round of NAFTA renegotiations, Sunday, I shared a confidence level of “3” on a 10 point scale; as to whether a deal was likely. [Explained Here]
On Monday Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer debriefed President Trump the on the results of the first round (5 days).   USTR Lighthizer and Secretary Ross were both at the White House during the eclipse viewing.
On Tuesday, following that briefing, President Trump shares his opinion on NAFTA. WATCH:

.
Remember, this statement follows the discussions with Ross and Lighthizer a day earlier.  It would appear that President Trump did not like the information they shared.  Knowing that POTUS Trump isn’t going to accept or compromise on an economic deal that doesn’t fix the issues; and knowing he’s wanted to walk away from NAFTA in favor of bilateral trade deals from the outset; I might need to lower my confidence to a “1” or lower…
Super-Mega-MAGA-Winning! (more…)

Hot off The Presses.  Round One of scheduled NAFTA renegotiations has concluded today and a trilateral statement has just been released. [My thoughts follow press release]:

Washington, DC – On August 16, 2017, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Secretary of the Economy Ildefonso Guajardo launched the renegotiation and modernization of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in Washington, DC.

This began five full days of meetings by a team of subject matter experts covering more than two dozen different negotiation topics.  Detailed conceptual presentations were made by the United States, Mexico and Canada across the scope of the agreement, and negotiating groups began work to advance text and agreed to provide additional text, comments or alternate proposals during the next two weeks.

The scope and volume of proposals during the first round of the negotiation reflects a commitment from all three countries to an ambitious outcome and reaffirms the importance of updating the rules governing the world’s largest free trade area.

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NAFTA negotiations enter day #4 today.  The final Round 1 summary day is tomorrow, Sunday.   Information as to specifics is hard to find.  Much of the ongoing negotiation is clouded in secrecy.
However, that said, one of CTH mouses (with wolverine teeth) shares a negotiation aspect that drew a great deal of conseternation from the Mexico and Canada side.
The issue revolves around government contracts, specifically U.S. federal contracts for goods and services.  President Trump has initiated a “Buy American, Hire American” policy for government contracts; meaning if the U.S. government has to spend money for a product or service, it should be spent on acquisition of American products made by American workers.
Mexico and Canada want access to these lucrative contracts.  President Trump’s “America First” procurement process is against their interest.  Canada is especially upset about this dynamic.  Canada wants to be able to bid on U.S. Federal Government contracts; and Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland referred to the buy-local rules as “poor public policy.”
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Day two of Round One NAFTA negotiations continued today.
Round one is scheduled to run through Sunday August 20th.   Generally speaking the key negotiators are not presenting too much public information as the larger objectives of the first round are structured around the bigger issues of the agreement itself, and not the individual economic sectors which follow.
The potential for an agreement still appears around a level “3” on a ten point scale.
On the positive side for those who follow the U.S. Trade Team, you might enjoy hearing that the crony-capitalistic lobbying group, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, has been significantly reduced.  U.S. CoC President Tom Donohue attempts to put his best face forward amid his diminished ability to influence actual policy:
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You can call this.. well, wait,… first we need the context….

President Trump, DHS and ICE have been cracking down on illegal aliens. As a consequence, in June of this year 884 illegal aliens fled the U.S. for asylum in Canada.  A month later, in July, that number skyrocketed over four hundred percent to more than 3,100. And now in the first two weeks of August it has doubled again to more than 3,800 flooding into Canada through August 15th. At this rate August will see over 7,000 illegal aliens fleeing the U.S. for safe-harbor in Canada.

Yes, we can officially call this supermagawonder-winning.   Heck, if we wait a little longer, pretty soon Canada might be paying us to build the Southern Border Wall.

TORONTO/MONTREAL (Reuters) – The number of asylum seekers who illegally crossed the U.S. border into Canada more than tripled last month, according to Canadian government data released on Thursday, as migrants worried about the U.S. administration’s immigration crackdown head north.

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Based entirely on what can be pulled from Government Accounts and media interviews of the participants involved in NAFTA negotiations, I’m going to try and summarize each day as it can be determined through those sources.
Additionally, for those who might be interested in a perspective I’m going to give a rating of my confidence that a tri-national agreement is possible.
On a scale of zero to 10 – where zero is NAFTA will dissolve and parties will be at irreconcilable differences, and 10 is confidence an agreement will be reached, at the end of Day #1, today, I’d asses the likelihood of an agreement at “3”.
Outlook not too good.
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