The ABC News debate starts at 8:00pm EST on ABC Broadcast Channels. You can watch on-line at ABC News HERE.  The pre-debate discussion began at 7:00pm

ABC News has partnered with affiliate WMUR, Independent Journal Review, the Republican National Committee and Saint Anselm College.  The audience will be filled with Republican Party insiders.  Progressive favorites David Muir and Martha Raddatz will moderate the debate.

LIVE STREAM HERE

If you are watching – join in with your comments, thoughts and opinions below.

Candidate Donald Trump must have a massive amount of confidence in his New Hampshire operation. Another day passes without any Donald Trump event in/around New Hampshire in the lead-up to the 8pm Saturday ABC Debate at Saint Anslem College.

“A third of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire said they could change their minds before Tuesday, according to a Suffolk University-Boston Globe poll released Friday, which had Trump leading at 29 percent followed by Rubio at 19 percent and Kasich at 13 percent.” (link)

For the Saturday night debate ABC News is partnered with affiliate WMUR, Independent Journal Review, the Republican National Committee and Saint Anselm College.

Progressive favorites David Muir and Martha Raddatz will moderate the debate, and position the narrative to expose the Republican party to as much ridicule and marginalization as possible. (more…)

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If there was a bad day to skip (and reschedule) a campaign event in New Hampshire, today was that day.  In advance of the debate tomorrow every GOP candidate is on-the-ground today in the Granite State.  All except Donald Trump.

The professionally republican are prepared to launch ‘next-in-line’ Jeb Bush and revitalize his campaign.  If you have spent even a modest amount of time following the evolution of the GOPe you will note their vitriol and hatred knows no boundaries when their power structures are threatened.

The GOPe will destroy any entity who does not acquiesce to their leadership.  The GOPe have built the political structures that all other candidates must enter to run a campaign.  Those who built this house would rather destroy it, to save it, than allow the vulgar unwashed masses to operate within it. (more…)

Watching the media talking about why Chris Christie has such a harsh tone toward Marco Rubio is actually quite funny.  The role of Christie in the GOPe larger political scheme has ALWAYS been to use him as the junk yard dog.

It is, quite simply, his job.

Do you need to go back to Christies’ time as head of the Republican Governors Association and remind yourself when the DC based GOPe apparatus was furious at Scott Walker?… Walker was facing a recall, Christie was given instructions to let him hang, and the RGA sat by doing next to nothing.   This was DC-based punishment for the Tea Party kicking out the chosen GOPe candidates.  Destroying their internal adversaries is what the Old Guard does best.

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The latest CNN/WMUR Poll (full pdf below) of New Hampshire shows Donald Trump holding a consistent lead and Marco Rubio clearing the GOPe lanes as predicted.  Ted Cruz comes in third at 13%, but close with John Kasich (12%) and Jeb Bush (10%).

Chris Christie dropping to 4% is a surprise.  This current poll has Christie doing much worse than all previous polling in the Granite state.  However, Christie’s sixth place tie with Carly Fiorina does put Carly back on the ABC debate stage so there could be a “Time-Warner/Disney” motive/smoothing factor at work.

It will be interesting to see if the scourge of Heroin addition is really as central to the New Hampshire voter as the media have previously proclaimed.

If so, a generally intelligent assertion would think that closing the Mexican border, the source of the drug influx, would be a key component to the voting decision.   However, Senator Rubio, who is the biggest advocate for open borders, is showing strong – which is counter intuitive to the drug concern claim.

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Both Senator Rand Paul and former Senator Rick Santorum exited the presidential race today.  Rick Santorum endorsed the GOPe candidate Rubio/Bush saying they held similar values.

Everything is happening almost as predicted in 2014.  Current events also highlight the key truism in the modified GOPe road-map since the entry of the unanticipated variable, Donald Trump.

The goal continues to be remove the unanticipated variable.  Encapsulated thusly:

…..Remove Donald Trump and Ben Carson becomes Herman Cain, Ted Cruz becomes Newt Gingrich and Rubio/Jeb take the role of Mitt Romney in 2012.  And everyone in Washington DC is happy, happy again….

There is ONLY ONE candidate who was not a variable in the original GOPe road-map, that candidate is Donald Trump.  As soon as Trump entered the arena the entire strategic splitter plan had to be modified.

The GOPe modification was brutally obvious.  Instead of immediately destroying Ted Cruz (the original plan) they changed the thrust of their approach to keep Ted Cruz viable (modified plan) thereby blocking Donald Trump from gaining a coalition which would keep Jeb/Rubio or Rubio/Jeb from the nomination.

This approach is why Mitch McConnell (and the DC Cartel) set up the Super-PAC and actually funded Ted Cruz in Iowa, and attacked Donald Trump.  [Shades of Mississippi ’14 strategy] (more…)

Note on the analysis on the bottom. It’s easier for us to share the predictable outcomes of the GOPe plan if we subtract Donald Trump from the equation.  We’ve studied the GOPe plan since it was created in Feb 2014 – and everything is predictable if you remove Trump.  This does not mean our support for Trump’s insurgency diminishes, it just makes it easier for you to follow along if we stick to the predictable…. /SD

——————————-  New Hampshire Poll Below  ————————-

The latest New Hampshire Poll (full pdf below) was conducted by UMass.  The poll is a large sample size and the methodology looks solid.  The poll results below reflect “registered voters”:

New Hampshire, despite its inherent political independence, is critical for Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Marco Rubio because it represents a more GOPe friendly electorate.  The GOPe road-map was always scheduled to begin in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is also important for Donald Trump as a psychological factor.   A second place for Ted Cruz would be considered a win for his team, but third place would also be a decent showing. (more…)

Originally Written in April 2015 – Re posted exactly as previous outlined:

Until substantive and factual information reveals something divergent I’m sticking to my initial researched opinion that Marco Rubio’s campaign bid is purely a decepticon maneuver to plow through the field, and aid his mentor Jeb Bush.

(Via Allan Wall) Republican candidate Marco Rubio, in a chat with Jorge Ramos, in Spanish, made it clear that, on this issue, any differences between a President Rubio and President Obama would be insubstantial.

Matthew Boyle of Breitbart (a valuable source on immigration issues) has written up a report on the interview:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), a 2016 GOP presidential candidate, said he believes that President Barack Obama’s first executive amnesty for so-called DREAMers—the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)—is “important” and he won’t reverse it himself if elected president. He delivered these remarks in a Spanish-language interview he gave to Univision’s Jorge Ramos.

So here is Rubio, speaking in Spanish to Jorge Ramos, a principal proponent of the Hispanicization of the U.S., telling him this. (more…)

We will keep this post at the top of the page throughout the evening and provide live updates as they come in.

At 11:30pm with 95% of Precincts reporting Candidate Ted Cruz appears to have won Iowa.  CNN is calling the race for Ted Cruz.

Additionally, Marco Rubio has done exceptionally well in the populous areas of Davenport, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and Des Moines.  In the major metropolitan areas Marco Rubio has placed first which has pushed, Cruz to second and Donald Trump third.

A significant percentage of the high voter turnout was to the benefit of Marco Rubio.  Donald Trump won some of the more conservative counties, but in the areas where the GOPe, or establishment Republican party, hold strength – Marco Rubio was able to pull enough votes from Trump to provide Cruz a victory and make the race closer.

The GOPe executed a strong game in Iowa.

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