The Trump Doctrine is easiest to describe as: deploying economic leverage to achieve national security interests.  The Trump Doctrine is unique and stunningly effective.

Many of the geopolitical decisions have multiple facets which connect like small gears on a much larger machine.  One of those small dual-purpose gears is the Doctrine as it is applied to Pakistan.  The downstream moves impact China, our #1 geopolitical and economic adversary, then Russia, and also support new alliances with India and the broader Middle-east.

Toward China = ♦Squeeze #3. In 2017 Trump and Secretary Tillerson, now Secretary Pompeo, put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China. The U.S. removed $900 million in financial support to pressure Pakistan toward a political solution in Afghanistan, China has to fill void.  [NOTE: Last month the World Bank began discussions about a financial bailout for Pakistan.]  Again, more one-way bleed for China. {Go Deep}

When President Trump removed the $900 million in aid to Pakistan, he empowered the Pentagon via Defense Secretary James Mattis, with an option to give $300 million to Pakistan if Mattis felt positive steps were being taken to change behavior.  Today the Pentagon announces no change in behavior is noted:
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It was ABSOLUTELY NOT coincidental that China sent a low level trade delegation to the U.S. at exactly the same time U.S.T.R. Lighthizer is conducting open hearings on Section 301 national security trade issues; which are specifically targeted toward China.
For the second time POTUS is using strategic deployment of sunlight on the relationship between Beijing and North Korea. President Trump is highlighting what has been hidden for decades.  China has structured the use of North Korean nuclear ambitions as the sword of Damocles over their economic adversaries in the West. China’s Chairman Xi Jinping controls the government officials that surround North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un:

(Tweet Links)

These tweets, along with the earlier tweet. are serious business.  They are being fired directly into the heart of Beijing.  They are the mother of all truth bombs, and they take away the ability of Chairman Xi to deploy the hidden threat and DPRK control.
“Subtle” like a brick through a window. [More backstory available here.]  President Trump is removing the Panda mask to reveal the authentic nature of Chairman Xi Jinping.  Simultaneously Trump is trying to rescue Kim Jong-un from the clutches of the Red dragon behind the panda mask.
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Sad Panda increasingly frustrated as disruptor Trump heaps vociferous praise on Chairman Xi, while simultaneously out maneuvering Beijing’s geopolitical economic strategy.
China expert Michael Pillsbury discusses the current environment around the Beijing leadership with Fox host Tucker Carlson.  This is really important. WATCH:

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What Pillsbury outlines is exactly what CTH predicted last year when we shared how the Red Dragon would be caught entirely off-guard.  They’ve never seen this approach before.
NOTE: The upcoming Chinese trade delegation is not showing up at the end of this month as a matter of scheduling happenstance.  What no-one in the financial/trade/economic media is connecting is the timing of their visit with USTR Lighthizers’ Section 301 Tariff hearings –SEE HERE.  August 20th through August 27th, you can guarantee the Chinese delegations will be all over those hearings; including dispatching their paid lobbyists to provide input on their behalf.
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Originally outlined a year ago. Reposted by request. At the heart of the professional/political opposition the issue is money; there are trillions at stake.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic trade and foreign policy agenda is jaw-dropping in scale, scope and consequence. There are multiple simultaneous aspects to each policy objective; however, many have been visible for a long time – some even before the election victory in November ’16.
If we get too far in the weeds the larger picture is lost. CTH objective is to continue pointing focus toward the larger horizon, and then at specific inflection points to dive into the topic and explain how each moment is connected to the larger strategy.

Today we repost an earlier dive into how MAGAnomic policy interacts with multinational Wall Street, the stock market, the U.S. financial system and perhaps your personal financial value. Again, reference and source material is included at the end of the outline.
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A 71-year-old Indian Sikh named Sahib Singh Natt was attacked in California on Monday morning. The attackers beat, kicked, spit-on and ridiculed the elderly Sikh while demanding money.
Today two arrests were made. One of those arrested is Tyrone McAllister (pictured left), the 18-year-old son of Union City Police Chief Darryl McAllister.

(CBS Sacramento) […]  Wednesday, authorities announced they had made arrests in connection to the incident: 18-year-old Tyrone McAllister and a 16-year-old boy. Both teens are facing charges of attempted robbery, elder abuse and assault with a deadly weapon.
Manteca police confirm that McAllister is the son of Union City Police Chief Darryl McAllister. Investigators say Union City authorities have been in contact with them and helped in the case. (read more)

If there was a five-click dial available as a severity meter between the U.S. and China, something happened internally in Beijing, over the last 72 hours, because that dial just triggered movement from 3 to 4… Keep watching everything in the world of geopolitics with a mental 360° radar sweep looking for Chinese influence/interests.

Nuance and subtlety is everything in China. Culturally harsh tones are seen as a sign of weakness and considered intensely impolite in public displays between officials; especially within approved and released statements by officials representing the government.
Therefore, when we see China publicly use strong language – it indicates a level of internal disposition beyond the defined western angst. Big Panda becomes Red Dragon; there is no mid-status or evolutionary phase.

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s state media on Monday lashed out at the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump in an usually direct attack, accusing him of “starring in his own carefully orchestrated street fighter-style deceitful drama”.
Trump’s wish for others to play along with his drama is “wishful thinking,” the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper said in an editorial.

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President Trump has moved into Phase II of the U.S./China confrontation.  Part of that confrontation is to use the inherent weakness of the Chinese economy against them.  To understand the weakness is to understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World‘ economic trade strategy.  Here’s an outline of the economic battle-space we are witnessing.
People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy –manufacturing– they do have economic strength.
However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.
Lets take a stroll and discuss.
China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.
This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.
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Interestingly Reuters uses the narrative from an anonymous Canadian “official” to frame an article about how global car manufacturers are coming together next week in Geneva to coordinate their strategy against the United States and President Trump.
Just let that part sink in for a moment…

Behind that context we can clearly see: 1) the economic importance of the Auto industry to the countries that are assembling; 2) their multinational corporate interest in retaining unlimited access to the U.S. market; and 3) the absolute need of all assembling corporations to find a way to keep their investments in NAFTA’s fatal flaw viable.
Who is gathering?  Canada, Mexico, the EU (ie. Germany), Japan and South Korea.
Where are they going?  To visit Geneva, Switzerland.  Why Geneva? Because that way China can attend (see Volvo/Sweden) without being on the official roster.  ::nudge, nudge:: ::wink, wink::  ::say-no-more Panda boy, say-no-more::  Additionally, Cecelia Malmström (EU Trade Minister), is the person Canada is relying upon to cover their anti-Trump position:

MEXICO CITY/OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada, the European Union, Japan, Mexico and South Korea will meet in Geneva next week to discuss how to respond to threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on U.S. imports of autos and car parts, officials familiar with the talks said.

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The head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin Hassett shares his perspective on the 4.1 percent GDP growth, and the ongoing MAGAnomic America-First initiatives.   Hassett rightly points out that finished good domestic inventories dropped as an outcome of consumer purchasing outpacing manufacturing.  As more manufacturing comes on-line, the production capacity expansion leads to more GDP growth.
Remember, one of the unique attributes of the U.S. economy, thanks to the foresight of industrial titans who built it, is our internal consumption.  We are not only the worlds’ largest economy, we are the biggest self-sustaining economy in the history of the world; a massively consequential strategic advantage. Our leverage comes from nations needing access to our market; the U.S. does not necessarily need access to theirs. Therefore POTUS Trump can dictate the terms.

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Originally outlined a year ago. Reposted by request, because we are watching it play out in real time: Believe me, at the heart of the professional/political opposition the issue is the money; there are trillions at stake.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic trade and foreign policy agenda is jaw-dropping in scale, scope and consequence. There are multiple simultaneous aspects to each policy objective; they have been outlined for a long time even before the election victory in November ’16.
If you get too far into the weeds the larger picture can be lost. CTH objective is to continue pointing focus toward the larger horizon, and then at specific inflection points to dive into the topic and explain how each moment is connected to the larger strategy.

Today we repost an earlier dive into how MAGAnomic policy interacts with multinational Wall Street, the stock market, the U.S. financial system and perhaps your personal financial value. Again, reference and source material is included at the end of the outline.
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