Fox News host Tucker Carlson traveled to Osaka Japan for the G20 meeting between President Trump and China’s Chairman Xi Jinping.  After the summit meeting Carlson interviews President Trump and broadcast the interview this evening:

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Additionally, Tucker Carlson traveled with President Trump to South Korea for the DMZ visit with Kim Jong-un.
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Today, July 1st, is the first day of the third quarter 2019.  As typical some of the earliest economic reporting from June is released.  One of the first reports comes from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) as they compile the manufacturing sector.

As noted in the ISM review, manufacturing growth remains strong with an overall index of 51.7 (anything above 50 is growth), and the results are stronger than initially predicted by the financial media (Wall Street).
The manufacturing production index for June is 54.1 versus last month’s 51.3 (May); generally this means manufacturing outputs are growing, order backlogs are being reduced, orders are being fulfilled faster.  This is an indication that new production investment is now coming on-line and delivering actual products from orders.
In the past CTH had noted the heavy Main Street investment which began in 2017 would start to come on-line in Q2 2019, it generally takes about two years for a new manufacturing facility to start producing, and then increases in production efficiency follow.  The ISM result shows we were pretty close with that forecast.
Within the review there are particular notes for additional interest.  First, the June manufacturing employment index is 54.5, very strong; (last month 53.7).  In essence manufacturers are hiring at a fast rate.  One cause is better weather (seasonal), and the majority cause is filling the jobs from new production facilities coming on-line.
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President Trump has tweeted the high-level status of the negotiation restart.  Essentially the outcome is as we expected.

• Trade talks resume from former stalled point. [Likely Vice-Premier Liu He is back representing Chairman Xi Jinping – Beijing retreat]
• Current enhanced tariff’s remain in place. [The tariffs that were raised when talks collapsed will remain raised and in force. – Beijing retreat]
• China resumes AG purchases. [Likely soy beans will be priority – Beijing retreat]
• U.S. will allow trade purchases, exports, to Huawei of non-National Security tech. [Ross likely to determine products – Trump modifies position]

From this summation it would appear President Trump has created an exit ramp for Chairman Xi Jinping that allows him to save face.  However, obviously with retention of the recent tariff increases the benefits beyond optics all favor President Trump.
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President Trump will be holding a press conference this morning as the G20 summit has concluded. The presser is scheduled for 2:30am EST in Osaka Japan. There are multiple media reports that President Trump and Chairman Xi Jinping have agreed to restart trade discussions.  This will likely be a primary focus of questions as the world is watching.
UPDATE: Video Added

With the pre-G20 magnanimous panda activity by China, there’s little doubt Chairman Xi will have offered a modification in DPRK influence in exchange for a some form of trade negotiations; likely now limited to the restart.  That would present a position where Vice-Chairman Liu He can reengage with the U.S. team (Lighthizer and Mnuchin).
It would make sense for President Trump to pause any further tariff action as an act of good faith if that move can get Kim Jong-Un released. It costs the U.S. position nothing.
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The event the world is waiting for happens at 10:30pm EST.  President Trump will be holding a bilateral meeting with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping.
All eyes are turned towards Trump and Xi as they go into what could be one of the most significant meetings of the entire G20. The U.S. and China have seen increasing economic tensions as the two superpowers square off over tariffs and China’s questionable connections to their tech companies.
UPDATE: Video Added: In two visible signals: (1) Chairman Xi brings back Vice-Premier Liu He to the table, signaling potential concession. However, (2) President Trump brings U.S. Manufacturing Policy Advisor, Peter Navarro, the arch nemesis Beijing, signaling no compromise.

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[Transcript] PRESIDENT XI: (As interpreted.) Mr. President, let me make a few opening remarks.
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During an earlier G20 discussion of technology in a fast digital age, President Trump highlighted the potential security compromises with the new 5G communication network.  This was an indirect shot toward China and the controversy surrounding Huawei with China’s Chairman Xi Jinping only separated from Trump by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

It would appear President Trump is in full confrontation mode, albeit diplomatically, as the highly anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi is going to take place at 10:30pm tonight.  We are likely, heck, almost guaranteed, to see a complete reversal in position between the two leaders as President Trump wears the panda mask to cover the Eagle glare.  This truly is the dance with the dragon.
After several years of background strategy, President Trump now has Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in a tenuous position while the ramifications of the U.S-China trade dispute unfold around him and seemingly begin to collapse the One-Belt/One-Road supply chain Beijing has carefully planned.  Actual manufacturing and investment is now retreating from China as the U.S. President continues to use access to the U.S. market as leverage to retract the tentacles of Chinese economic expansion.
President Trump has a quiver full of economic arrows that are available to him; not the least of which is the possibility of enhanced tariffs toward even more Chinese products. Beijing cannot keep subsidizing industry to keep position, they are bleeding cash and the threats against Western corporations have only made matters worse.
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The last bilateral meeting of the first day at the G20 in Osaka, Japan, was held between President Trump and Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro.  [Video and Transcript]
The US accounts for 34 percent of the world’s soybean production with 108 million metric tons. Brazil accounts for 30 percent of the global production of the crop with 87 million metric tons. Combined, Trump and Bolsonaro control 64 percent of global soybean production. [China consumes 60 percent of global soybeans available for export.]
Note: Brazil is a strategic geopolitical U.S. partner against Chairman Xi’s influence, due to the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). It is obvious this has been discussed between Bolsonaro and POTUS Trump.  Within the media pool some enterprising narrative engineer asked President Trump about the Day-Two meeting between Xi and Trump, as noted below (emphasis mine):

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[Transcript] PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much everybody. We’re with a gentleman who had one of the greatest election wins anywhere in the world, as far as I’m concerned, and he was very proud of his relationship with President Trump — President of Brazil. And he’s a special man — doing very well, very much loved by the people of Brazil. And I think we can say that Brazil and the United States are as close or closer as they’ve ever been. So I just want to welcome you and say thank you very much, my friend.
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The G20 summit in Osaka was filled with smiles, kisses, and handshakes between world leaders on their first day of meetings as they came together to discuss global issues such as trade and the digital economy.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gathers the G20 world leaders to pose for a family photograph in front of Osaka Castle before being treated to dinner and a gala performance. It’s always interesting to watch the interactions between the G20 leaders.

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There will be more detailed summaries coming later; however, here’s some of the more interesting aspects so far.   The G20 Osaka, Japan Group Picture:

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As expected the schedule of President Trump’s first set of bilateral discussions seems structured around the Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s expansion.  In this strategy within Southeast Asia geopolitics Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the fulcrum for a shifting economic dynamic.
President Trump hosts a bilateral with Prime Minister Abe, and then again hosts a rather unusual trilateral meeting between himself, Abe and India’s Prime Minister Modi.  The three leaders met in a trilateral discussion at the Buenos Aires G20 in 2018.
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In the dynamic of President Trump confronting Chairman Xi over Chinese trade and manufacturing practices there are critical members of the U.S. team, each with a role to play.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are the most important members.
Secretary Ross explains the position of the U.S. team as they head to the G20. WATCH:

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As we discussed yesterday, Chinese anxiety is off-the-charts.  When China gets into this high-anxiety disposition, they immediately -predictably- drop the Panda mask, and lash-out with Red Dragon antagonisms.  This is happening right now.
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