Former CIA operative, and current CIA analyst/CNN contributor Robert “Bob” Baer has been providing excellent commentary on the Tsarnaev brothers and the Boston Bombing.
Generally Baer is a smidge left of center – but on this case he really has been providing “common sense” amid all the reckless speculation from multiple media outlets.
In essence his hypothesis is what I would affirm as “most likely”.
Bob’s approach is from the human element which most analysts seem to overlook completely. It appears the older brother, Tamerlan, met a person of Islamic Influence, perhaps the “Misha” character who is described as charismatic and a devote muslim.
In turn Tamerlan introduced “Misha” to his mother, who she has relayed assisted her and Tamerlan in becoming more fundamental to their Muslim faith. This appears to be the origin of the radicalization – whoever “he” is.
To date all that is known about him is that he is an Armenian man in his 30s with distinctive red beard and that he has disappeared – no longer living in the Cambridge, Massachusetts area.
Under the tutelage of a friend known to the Tsarnaev family only as Misha, Tamerlan gave up boxing and stopped studying music, his family said. He began opposing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
He turned to websites and literature claiming that the CIA was behind the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001, and Jews controlled the world.
According to Ruslan, Tamerlan’s radicalization happened right under the nose of his mother, Zubeidat Tsarnaeva.
Speaking to MailOnline last week, Ruslan said that Misha was around 30-years-old and that he was an Armenian who, unusually for such a largely Christian people, had converted to Islam.
Tamerlan’s relationship with Misha could be a clue in understanding the motives behind his religious transformation and, ultimately, the attack itself. (link)
Subsequently Tamerlan engaged with more “extreme” Islamic elements in the home country, Dagestan. This is where he was more than likely introduced to the elements of “bomb making” etc.
Those same “trainers” develop people to act as independent terror cells and have no further contact once the initial training is complete. Nor do they give instructions on what to do with the material after they teach them to put together. They teach them to build bombs then tell them to go do it wherever they think is best – and have no further contact.
The trainers do not want cell phone contact, money trails, or any communication which can be “intercepted” – Train them and just cut em’ loose to choose their own targets is their preferred course.
The bombs themselves were too sophisticated for an uneducated boxer, and a stoner/ college dropout. Someone had to show them how to put it together – hence the training, probably for Tamerlan overseas.
The trigger mechanisms not being cell phones points to a more hobbyist remote control device – this also avoids the tracking and identification issues with cell phone detonators. The RC car type remote activations operate on lower frequency signals and would be untraceable if random wireless signal scanning was being done – two devices could be tuned to two differing frequencies.
But it is also the detonation devices that brings the training aspect into sharp focus. The detonation is the most challenging part – especially under the natural nervousness and pressure of events – some kind of previous practice had to have taken place.
However, back again to the human element – it’s more likely than not, a support system of some kind existed in the Boston area – hence the serious look for accomplices. The logistics, the money-raising, the practice, there was “some form” of support in some kind beyond the Dagestan connection(s) where the assembly training more than likely took place. And just some kind of morale support for two guys is also factually more than likely.
Bob continues with the belief they probably had planned to do more, somewhat locally, til they were identified by the media – and then decided to use the previously assembled and unused munitions at another location – hence Time Square was chosen on the fly….
In short, were they trained? More than likely. Overseas? More than likely. Was it a plot beyond their choice for the target location? Not very likely. Were they the only two people in Boston who knew what was about to take place? Again, not likely. Did they have local support? Again, more than likely.
Tamerlan appears to have been given some training on what to do, with the specifics of bomb assembly – then just told to do it wherever he wanted. He and his brother were familiar with Boston – so that was their choice.