The headline says -2.6%, but that’s the median.  The actual 2019 economic predictive modeling for Mexico is up to a 4% contraction if the U.S. cancels NAFTA.  The next round of NAFTA negotiations is scheduled for November 17th.

Additionally, these models are based on current trade economics and do not factor in the ramifications of Mexico joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and signing up to manufacturing sector agreements with Asian nations who can easily undercut even the low wage rates in Mexico based on average wealth.
The predictive models are run by various analysts paid by multinational business interests (corporations) to give advanced forecasting.  The results of the forecasts are used by multinational financial systems to determine the inherent value of future investment within Mexico.
(more…)

Apologies in advance to our conservative Canadian friends; but the explainer here is regarding America-First trade and economics against the backdrop of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, Canada and Mexico’s alignment therein, the APEC Summit and rainbow socks.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Justin from Canada

Here’s why Canada and Mexico signing up to TPP is great news for the U.S., and couldn’t come at a better time for NAFTA round #5 on November 17th.  We don’t want TPP to collapse, because TPP ties the hands of Canada and Mexico to elements of trade that are based on collective interests. Their joining TPP provides the U.S. leverage in NAFTA.
Remember, Vietnam is exactly 12 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern time zone.  At 7:450pm last evening in Vietnam (local time), at the last minute, Rainbow Socks backed out of the signing the TPP framework (explained here).  Twelve hours later, at 7:20am (local), the AP reported the agreement was “back on” with “a compromise”:

DANANG, Vietnam (AP) — The Latest on the summit of 21 Pacific Rim economies in Vietnam (all times local): 7:20 a.m. – Trade ministers say they have reached a basic agreement on a Pacific Rim trade pact without the United States.

(more…)

All leading economic forecasters said it would be impossible for President Trump’s MAGAnomic plans to generate 3% GDP growth in the first year.  President Obama said it was impossible and Trump would need a “magic wand, or something“.
Well, three months after taking office (April-June), it was Quarter 2, and the U.S. GDP began growing over three percent.  Again in Quarter 3 (July-Sept), the same benchmark was exceeded. And now Q4 (Oct-Dec) the New York Fed says, yes, GDP growth is 3.2%.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The New York Federal Reserve on Friday kept its view on U.S. gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter near 3.2 percent given the dearth of economic data this week. (link)

Remember, these are forecasts within the current quarter.  CTH is specifically predicting the actual result will be much, much higher. With consumer confidence at the highest rate ever recorded (link); combined with MAGAnomics pushing down the cost of living and increasing disposable income (link); combined with wages rising (link); combined with early indicators that consumer spending this holiday season will be the biggest ever (link) and (link) and (link)….
Hold on to your economic britches peeps – throw dem ju-ju bones out the windows – grab hold of the young-un’s, squeeze em tight and introduce them to their first opportunity to see capitalism unchained; we are in uncharted MAGA territory now.  Q4 will be well beyond 3.2%…  Well Beyond.
Believe Me.
Bigly.
(more…)

This has to be,.. scratch that,… ‘THIS IS’ one of the biggest multinational trade embarrassments in the past decade.

President Trump and team U.S.A. have already said  the United States is not engaging in the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal (TPP). We’re out, and have been out since the 2016 election. [The U.S. is focusing on direct, one-one-one, bilateral trade agreements.]
However, for the backdrop of this latest TPP development, you might also remember USTR Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Ross expressed the NAFTA plans were at loggerheads, and cancelled the October round of NAFA discussion, because of the ridiculous positions of the Canadians led by Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s far-left Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Well, for several months the eleven nations within the TPP have been negotiating among themselves for the details of the agreement without the United States. The member nations in the TPP-11 group are: Australia, Japan, Brunei, Mexico, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and Canada.
All eleven trade ministers from the TPP-11 countries had finally agreed on a “substantial conclusion” to the deal. The framework was built over almost two years and it was to be signed off by leaders on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Vietnam today.
(more…)

The international leaders attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Da Nag, Vietnam gathered for their customary group photograph.
Justin from Canada was positioned next to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Australian PM Turnbull by the host nation (after a big controversy over TPP); U.S. President Trump was positioned next to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

(more…)

President Donald Trump delivered an defiant opening speech at the 2017 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Da Nag, Vietnam earlier today. Speaking to an Asia-Pacific audience consisting of over 400 top corporate CEO’s, international leaders, and key heads-of-state from the region, President Trump outlined his expectation for trade relationships with ALL member states.
Trump began by walking through a list of the primary regional nations, praising each for their history and culture and then highlighting their modern success and advancement in economics and trade.  Then President Trump shifted to economics and national security; delivering a strong and deliberate message that the era of unfair trade practices, and one-sided trade deals, with the U.S. was over.

…”We can no longer tolerate these chronic trade abuses, and we will not tolerate them. […] that is why I am here today. […] The current trade imbalance is not acceptable. […] From this day forward, we will compete on a fair and equal basis. We are not going to let the United States be taken advantage of anymore.”…

As noted by a tuned-in observer of the tone in delivery.  President Trump’s delivery to the audience was as bold and defiant as his presentation at the Al Smith dinner in 2016.  No punches were pulled, no ambiguity in motive. Trump dropped the atomic sledgehammer of economic truth upon the increasingly nervous audience. It was spectacular.  WATCH:

.
[TRANSCRIPT] PRESIDENT TRUMP: What an honor it is to be here in Vietnam — in the very heart of the Indo-Pacific — to address the people and business leaders of this region.
This has already been a remarkable week for the United States in this wonderful part of the world. Starting from Hawaii, Melania and I traveled to Japan, South Korea, and China, and now to Vietnam, to be here with all of you today.
(more…)

Guess Who’s Winning?

(more…)

President Trump and President Xi Jinping will be holding a joint press announcement from the Grand Hall in Beijing China tonight at approximately 11:30pm (U.S. Eastern time zone). There will be two statements delivered, one from President Trump and one from President Xi.
Because all Chinese broadcasts are controlled by the communist regime, the White House will not host a live stream. However, the joint statement as delivered should be carried on cable TV and possibly included in the Live Stream Options Below:
UPDATE: Video Added

(more…)

After an hour of scheduled “closed-door” one-on-one “private” discussion between President Trump and President Xi, the leaders of both nations reassemble with their delegations for discussions between the larger groups.
Beijing Schedule: At 10:40am (local) / 9:40pm (U.S. Eastern) President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping lead an expanded bilateral meeting with their respective emissaries of trade, finance and national security.  (Video of initial remarks)

.
(Pool Report) The meeting took place in an elaborately adorned room in the Great Hall of the People.  The US and Chinese delegations faced each other at a pair of long tables. Trump and Xi sat in the middle of the table. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and US ambassador to China Terry Branstad stay on either side of Trump. Trump and Xi both spoke for a few minutes.
(more…)

While President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are conducting official state business, First Lady Melania Trump and China’s first lady Madame Pen Liyaun visit a Beijing, China, Art and Design School.
*Geopolitical Note* The messaging here is toward U.S. trade sanctions on intellectual property theft by Chinese companies.  The intended objective here is to show they have the capability to create their own design ideas.  Theft of trademark products, and the re-manfacturing of those falsely branded products, is a huge part of China’s black-market economy and a large part of the ongoing U.S. led trade sanctions review.

(more…)