At 8:00pm Tonight CNN is hosting a three candidate Town Hall with Ohio Governor John Kasich, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and businessman Donald Trump.
The event is carried live on CNN broadcasting – and available via Live Stream HERE
Alternate (Non-PayGo) Live Stream HERE
Unless something rather drastic comes out that needs to be deconstructed or analyzed, this will be the last presentation of a poll in South Carolina. Why? Well, quite simply, all of these latest polls are being too manipulated to be of any real value – Including this one.
The latest Fox News Poll (full pdf below) is data driven by Anderson Robbins Research (Democrat firm) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican firm), and not by Fox Media itself. The sub-contracts have vested financial interests/stakes in the race – hence the under and over samples evident to present an outcome that cannot be assured as objective:
The results, while following a similar path to prior polls, are too fraught with assumptions and specific weighted demos, leading to high margins of error for certain demographics.
Here’s the snapshot showing the demos, including some of the higher MOE categories as noted. (more…)
“Reports of Donald Trump’s imminent demise as a candidate are clearly and greatly exaggerated. Like a freight train barreling through signals with his horn on full blast, Trump heads down the track towards a possible nomination,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
The insufferable agenda poll pushed by NBC/WSJ (constructed by a political PR firm) is rightly dispatched into the land of outlier irrelevance by a much larger sample (four times larger) Quinnipiac poll (full pdf below) released last night – showing a much different result. The Quinnipiac poll is in alignment with all other recent national polling.
The top-line figures provide further evidence of a continuing trend. As the field is reducing, Trump and Rubio are gaining support while Ted Cruz continues slipping backward.
These results are in line with other national and South Carolina polling and ground reports which reflect the top three race as #1 Trump, #2 Rubio, and #3 Cruz. As a direct result the exasperation of Team Cruz will increase exponentially. (more…)
Virginia is one of those sneakily important states that doesn’t get enough attention unless something dramatic is going on (example: Cantor’s rebuke). One of the reasons it holds additional merit, is because most of the DC insiders live there.
Virginia is truly unique, because it’s one of those places where the national anxiety between the GOP grassroots and the pontitificting establishment class can be witnessed in the local supermarket. Seeing a key Mitch McConnell staffer in the same vicinity as an easily accessed dozen eggs, is the stuff vulgarian dreams are made of. I digress…
The latest poll from Virginia (full pdf below) reflects an increasingly obvious reality – The more Senator Ted Cruz has to rely on bible-thumping, the behinder he gets.
The fight between the professional political class and the ordinary common sense patriots has been happening in Virginia for more than six years now. Some victories and some defeats on both sides as the political war rages on.
Donald Trump has increased his lead in Virginia to 33%. Marco Rubio comes in second with 19%, and John Kasich arrives third with 14%. (more…)
The latest CNN/ORC Poll (full pdf below) of South Carolina voters has been released. Donald Trump remains at the front of the group with a significant lead (38% support), followed by Senator Ted Cruz (22%) and Senator Marco Rubio (14%).
In addition to the top-line results, candidate Trump leads on all the key current event issues amid the South Carolina electorate – with dominating leads in: • the economy, • ISIS, • Immigration and • the best chance to win the general election.
(Via CNN) Donald Trump holds a broad 16-point lead among those likely to vote in South Carolina’s Republican primary this Saturday, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton tops Bernie Sanders by 18 points in the state’s Democratic primary, which will be held a week later. (more…)
Tip from Captain Obvious: In an election year when voters identify all the “go-along-to-get-along” politicians as part of the problem, chasing their endorsements is just, well, silly… but feel free to carry on.
The latest post-debate poll from South Carolina, conducted by PPPolling, shows Ted Cruz slipping backward to catch Marco Rubio; and a candidate field, behind Trump, mired in the mud.
Put another way – The same inept politicians who ran for three election cycles promising change, yet did nothing except make things worse, are now standing next to even more inept presidential candidates and touting them as the solution for their own ineptitude.
The political gaslighting is no longer effective against an engaged electorate.
In order to understand what is currently going on, it helps to step back in time and remind yourself what the intents are behind the political curtain – The bigger ‘big picture’.
All the way back in February of ’14, the RNC rules committee decisions for the 2016 presidential race were constructed in Washington DC. Almost every player in the 2015/2016 presidential election was either present (mostly splitters), or had a representative in attendance on their behalf.
Republican party officials, party consultants, party donor aggregators/bundlers, regional and state party insiders, political media representatives, all present. The entire GOPe political enterprise was participating in the RNC conference. Within those discussions there were also multiple break-out sessions.
Within the most exclusive of those break-out sessions (invitation only) were the engineers, top-level lobbyists, K-Street and Wall Street financiers, the money people. The GOPe road-map for the presidential race in 2016 was built. (more…)
Donald Trump discusses the state of the presidential race and current issues with candidate Ted Cruz lying.
A new CBS battleground tracking poll (full pdf below) released today shows the top three candidates continue to be Trump, Cruz and Rubio. Jeb Bush and Dr. Ben Carson are far behind.
Jeb is hoping that bringing his brother, George W. Bush, into the state of South Carolina will provide him more benefit than bringing Mom, Barbara, into New Hampshire. Although many voters in South Carolina are now asking “why can’t Jeb compete for the nomination on his own merits“?
It does seem oddly weak, and profoundly poor advice, for a presidential candidate to be unable to achieve support – and decide the best option is to rely on Mom, Dad and his brother as a crutch. (more…)
The South Carolina debate moderator is CBS News political director John Dickerson. He will be joined by CBS News White House correspondent Major Garrett, and The Wall Street Journal’s Kimberley Strassel.
The debate will air live on CBS from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m. EST tonight. – Live Stream HERE
For those watching at home – feel free to join in with your thoughts on the debate below.