The latest CNN/WMUR Poll (full pdf below) of New Hampshire shows Donald Trump holding a consistent lead and Marco Rubio clearing the GOPe lanes as predicted.  Ted Cruz comes in third at 13%, but close with John Kasich (12%) and Jeb Bush (10%).

Chris Christie dropping to 4% is a surprise.  This current poll has Christie doing much worse than all previous polling in the Granite state.  However, Christie’s sixth place tie with Carly Fiorina does put Carly back on the ABC debate stage so there could be a “Time-Warner/Disney” motive/smoothing factor at work.

It will be interesting to see if the scourge of Heroin addition is really as central to the New Hampshire voter as the media have previously proclaimed.

If so, a generally intelligent assertion would think that closing the Mexican border, the source of the drug influx, would be a key component to the voting decision.   However, Senator Rubio, who is the biggest advocate for open borders, is showing strong – which is counter intuitive to the drug concern claim.

(more…)

During a packed town hall event in New Hampshire today, a liberal provocateur from Southern California confronted candidate Donald Trump and made a claim that illegal immigrants were the backbone of the U.S.A.

Donald Trump was having none of it.  Watch:

“Illegal immigrants are the backbone of our country? I don’t think so, darling. You know what the backbone of our country [is]? People that came here, and they came here legally. People that came here to this country legally, and they worked their ass off, and they made this country great.”

Breitbart.com is reporting on audio they have obtained which shows Ted Cruz Headquarters telling Iowa precinct captains that Ben Carson had dropped out of the race. The messages were sent at 7:07pm (CST), and 7:29 (CST) before the votes were cast.

This factual evidence refutes the claims made by Ted Cruz and his campaign team:

Transcript [inaudible]…from the Ted Cruz campaign, calling to get to a precinct captain, and it has just been announced that Ben Carson is taking a leave of absence from the campaign trail, so it is very important that you tell any Ben Carson voters that for tonight, uh, that they not waste a vote on Ben Carson, and vote for Ted Cruz. He is taking a leave of absence from his campaign. All right? Thank you. Bye. (link)

(more…)

Candidate Donald Trump has two events planned for today in New Hampshire.  The first is a noon town hall in Exeter New Hampshire.  The second is a 7:00pm rally in Portsmouth New Hampshire at Great Bay Community College.

The Exeter Town Hall event begins at noon:

Live Stream Link – Alternate Live Stream

(more…)

UPDATE 2/4/16 The caller identified TPC as “The Polling Company“, Kellyanne Conway’s group. Conway later disputed the assertion, and claims TPC is “Target Point Consulting”, not part of the Cruz campaign.

FYI – A reader in South Carolina was the recipient of a telephone poll today.  Knowing the machinations of politics she identified the push polling method used.

After hanging up, she did some research and identified the Ted Cruz campaign. (see below)

“I live in SC, and I received a call from TPC Polling  today– a push poll against Trump. I looked up TPC, and it’s owned by Kellyanne Conway, who works for Cruz”.

The last two questions came after I identified Trump as my candidate. They (recording) asked something about how Trump wanted to work with Putin, and “was that a good idea”?

Then they asked the slanderous question, saying that Trump wants to close veteran-owned small businesses because they made the neighborhood look bad, and does that make me very angry, a little angry, or not angry at all.

After that, the call disconnected.

It would appear Senator Ted Cruz’s campaign is picking up in South Carolina right where his campaign left off in Iowa – same tactics.

UPDATE:  Kellyanne Conway, says the identification of TPC is identifying the wrong outfit.  There are two TPCs.

https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/695456295302885376

Target Point Consulting Executive Leadership Page HERE

Both Senator Rand Paul and former Senator Rick Santorum exited the presidential race today.  Rick Santorum endorsed the GOPe candidate Rubio/Bush saying they held similar values.

Everything is happening almost as predicted in 2014.  Current events also highlight the key truism in the modified GOPe road-map since the entry of the unanticipated variable, Donald Trump.

The goal continues to be remove the unanticipated variable.  Encapsulated thusly:

…..Remove Donald Trump and Ben Carson becomes Herman Cain, Ted Cruz becomes Newt Gingrich and Rubio/Jeb take the role of Mitt Romney in 2012.  And everyone in Washington DC is happy, happy again….

There is ONLY ONE candidate who was not a variable in the original GOPe road-map, that candidate is Donald Trump.  As soon as Trump entered the arena the entire strategic splitter plan had to be modified.

The GOPe modification was brutally obvious.  Instead of immediately destroying Ted Cruz (the original plan) they changed the thrust of their approach to keep Ted Cruz viable (modified plan) thereby blocking Donald Trump from gaining a coalition which would keep Jeb/Rubio or Rubio/Jeb from the nomination.

This approach is why Mitch McConnell (and the DC Cartel) set up the Super-PAC and actually funded Ted Cruz in Iowa, and attacked Donald Trump.  [Shades of Mississippi ’14 strategy] (more…)

Candidate Donald J Trump is holding a rally today in Little Rock, Arkansas at the Barton Coliseum.  The event begins at 5:00pm Central, 6:00pm Eastern:

Live Stream Link

Alternate Live Stream #2 – Alternate Live Stream #3 – Alternate Live Stream #4

(more…)

Let there be no doubt how ridiculous this election cycle is (listen):

Marco Rubio is called the “Milk Carton Senator” because he’s no-where to be found when he is supposed to be doing his job. Yet this is who Rush Limbaugh chooses to call a “full-throated conservative”? (more…)

(more…)

Note on the analysis on the bottom. It’s easier for us to share the predictable outcomes of the GOPe plan if we subtract Donald Trump from the equation.  We’ve studied the GOPe plan since it was created in Feb 2014 – and everything is predictable if you remove Trump.  This does not mean our support for Trump’s insurgency diminishes, it just makes it easier for you to follow along if we stick to the predictable…. /SD

——————————-  New Hampshire Poll Below  ————————-

The latest New Hampshire Poll (full pdf below) was conducted by UMass.  The poll is a large sample size and the methodology looks solid.  The poll results below reflect “registered voters”:

New Hampshire, despite its inherent political independence, is critical for Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Marco Rubio because it represents a more GOPe friendly electorate.  The GOPe road-map was always scheduled to begin in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is also important for Donald Trump as a psychological factor.   A second place for Ted Cruz would be considered a win for his team, but third place would also be a decent showing. (more…)