Bloomberg released a poll today (full pdf below) that is markedly different from their traditional polling methodology.   The poll is a representative sample of 802 random Ohio ‘likely voters’ with no additional weighting, smoothing or adjustments by the pollster, it’s just raw voter data for the sample.  The result:

What makes this specific media poll interesting is that media polls rarely (can’t remember any) present raw unfiltered likely voter data without applying their own weights, and modifying the results to fit the pollsters’ assumptions of who will show up on election day.
This poll doesn’t weight anything or assume/project a specific turnout ratio. (more…)

There are two important ratios to remember 65/35 and 55/45.

Throughout the past year those who have followed political opinion will note the consistent and reoccurring appearance of these two sets of statistical ratios.

♦ First, a variant of the ratio “65/35” shows up in random series of obscure polling questions done by alternative or social media.  Three examples include two Bravo Network broadcasts asking for voter input, and another from data tech “Zip App“.
The Bravo Network were so stunned by the (65/35) results of their initial poll – they actually repeated it just to make sure.

… “the results of this poll even more surprising is that the demographics of Bravo viewers are far different than the average stereotype of Donald Trump supporter” (link)

However, it should also be noted “65/35” shows up again in the NBC poll daddy result from the Commander-in-Chief forum. (more…)

Today in Aston Pennsylvania candidate Donald Trump outlined an innovative plan to bring federal tax policies in line with the needs of today’s families.  The plan is not for the wealthy, but rather specifically targeted to provide the biggest benefit to working and middle-class families.
According to the proposal, the plan is needed because child care expenses are now one of the largest expenses in many families.  This complicates a family’s decision on how to care for young children.
The Trump tax reforms and policy proposals will allow a family to make the choice of whether a parent should work outside the home or not without bias from the tax code. Having employed and empowered thousands of women at every level throughout his entire career, Donald Trump understands the needs of the modern workforce.
Here’s a summary of the outline:

Proposals Contained In Mr. Trump Child Care Plan
PROPOSAL #1 : The Trump plan will rewrite the tax code to allow working parents to deduct from their income taxes child care expenses for up to four children and elderly dependents. (more…)

CNN’s Jake Tapper interviews Trump campaign spokesperson Katrina Pierson and tries, rather pathetically, to continue maintaining Clinton’s “deplorable” narrative.

Candidate Donald Trump is joined with his daughter Ivanka Trump in Aston Pennsylvania this evening holding an event at the Aston Community Center.  The event is not open to the public; however, you can watch the live stream here beginning at 7:30pm EDT:
Live Stream Link – Alternate Live Stream #1 – Alternate Live Stream #2

Intro speaker at Trump rally in Iowa tells crowd: “You are one good looking basket of deplorables.” (link)

[ Transcript ]  Thank you. It is so great to be back in Iowa. Spending time in your state has been one of the great joys of this campaign.
Together, we are going to win Iowa in November — and we are going to win the White House, and Make America Great Again.
The White House will become the People’s House. We will tackle and fix the problems that have gone unsolved for years.
We are going to fix our crumbling infrastructure, renegotiate our disastrous trade deals, free children from failing government schools, eliminate government waste, and create a fair, simple and efficient tax code that adds millions of new jobs.
(more…)

Candidate Donald Trump is holding a campaign rally today in Des Moines, Iowa.  The venue is Seven Flags Event Center, and live stream coverage is scheduled for 12:00pm CT / 1:00pm EDT:
Live Stream Link – Alternate Live Stream

The Collapsing Hillary Clinton video has so many interesting aspects it’s like the Zapruder film. LOL  Oh well, this detail stuff is what CTH is known for – so lets explore.

Interesting observation by GutsNGlory.  Watch the video again, and pay specific attention to the guy circled.  [We’ll call him “Snuffy” because he has a similar profile to George Stephanopoulos].

[wpvideo E3Ae99a5]
What’s Snuffy doing?
(more…)

People who are not well versed in political strategy are falling into clear traps constructed by campaign operatives who know how to use obtuse narratives to deflect, distract and deceive.

#1. Modern democrats campaign on feelings. #2. Modern democrats campaign on Hollywood story lines.  #3. Politics are downstream from pop culture. The Clinton campaign would like nothing more than to frame a wounded victim (Lassie) comeback story for Hillary Clinton.
Whereby, the Clinton campaign itself doesn’t fear Hillary’s feeble physical vulnerabilities; they can modify that issue into her favor through the use of a water-carrying media.  What the campaign fears most is an opponent (Trump) who focuses intensely on acting as if their candidate is strong, while simultaneously putting voter sunlight upon Clinton’s obvious deception, the lying and the fraud. (more…)

Candidate Donald Trump heads to Asheville, North Carolina for a rally at the U.S. Cellular Center. Live coverage is on now and Trump is scheduled for 6:00pm EDT
Live Stream Link – Alternate Live Stream #1 – Alternate Live Stream #2